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Thunder vs Rockets: Prediction, Team News and SGA Against Durant

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets prediction and picks

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, born in Toronto, takes a thinned-out Thunder team to Houston to face Kevin Durant. Oklahoma City is 4-1 without four of its rotation: Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace are all out. Houston is 5-1 and has its own worry in Alperen Sengun’s back.

Both clubs lost in Dallas this week. The Thunder went down by 24 on Wednesday and the Rockets by five on Friday. Houston plays this Thunder vs Rockets game on the second night of a back-to-back.

Our best bet
Rockets to win
Score predictionRockets 114-108
SpreadRockets at -3.5 or shorter
TotalNo bet
Player propAjay Mitchell over 18.5 points
Watch in CanadaTSN, TSN+ and NBA TV Canada
Prop line checked on Covers’ NBA prop board at 8:03 a.m. ET on 31 October. Lines move, so check yours before you bet. Picks are opinion, not advice. 19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC).

How to watch Thunder vs Rockets in Canada

Detail
GameOklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets
DateSaturday 31 October 2026
Tip-off8:30pm ET / 7:30pm CT
VenueToyota Center (Houston)
RecordsOklahoma City 4-1, Houston 5-1
RestOklahoma City with 2 days off, Houston on the second night of a back-to-back

Canadian viewers can find it on TSN, TSN+ and NBA TV Canada. Listings move around during the season, so our how to watch the NBA in Canada page is worth a check.

Thunder vs Rockets odds

This game hadn’t been priced by a Canadian book at the time of writing. A US number may not match what you’ll see here, so we’ve left the odds out. See our NBA betting in Canada page for the licensed options by province.

Oklahoma City’s bench has become its starting five

Ajay Mitchell and Jared McCain moved into the starting lineup on Monday, and Mitchell has scored 30 and 29 since. Gilgeous-Alexander had 21 in Dallas and averages 26.0 for the season. Isaiah Hartenstein has pulled down 12, 13 and 14 rebounds in his last three games.

The injury list grew again on Friday. Holmgren had a procedure on his right knee for a small patellar tendon tear, and Nick Crain of Slam reported he will miss at least eight to ten weeks. Wallace had shoulder surgery the same day. Williams had surgery on a fractured fibula on Wednesday, and Caruso has a sprained ankle.

Only two of the five who started on opening night in San Antonio are available: Gilgeous-Alexander and Hartenstein.

How they compare

2025-26Oklahoma City ThunderHouston Rockets
Record64-1852-30
Net rating+11.0+5.2
Offensive rating117.0115.9
Defensive rating106.0110.7
Pace101.899.4
Three-point %36.5%36.4%

Rates from last season, when Oklahoma City won 64 games. The gap was 5.8 points per 100 possessions.

Houston has coped without Sengun so far

The Rockets won 132-100 in Milwaukee on Wednesday with Sengun out, then lost 116-111 in Dallas without him and Reed Sheppard, whose back is also sore. Both are listed day to day, and Houston had not filed its report at 8 a.m. ET.

Durant had 28 in that defeat and averages 23.3. Amen Thompson and Jabari Smith Jr. are both above 17 a game, and Fred VanVleet scored 24 against the Bucks.

Sengun was averaging 24.5 points, 9.0 rebounds and 7.0 assists before his back flared. Steven Adams is out with a calf strain, and Ime Udoka said on Monday he could miss “a week or two”. Marcus Smart played 17 minutes on Friday after three straight DNPs.

Oklahoma City won two of three last season

DateResultVenue
7 Feb 2026Houston 112-106Paycom Center
15 Jan 2026Oklahoma City 111-91Toyota Center (Houston)
21 Oct 2025Oklahoma City 125-124 (2OT)Paycom Center

The Thunder won the opener in double overtime, 125-124, and by 20 in Houston in January. The Rockets took the February game in Oklahoma City, 112-106.

Recent form

Oklahoma City ThunderLast 5: 4-1WWWWL
DateOpponentResultTop scorer
Wed 28 Octat DallasL 96-120Ajay Mitchell 29
Mon 26 Octvs PhoenixW 125-114Ajay Mitchell 30
Sun 25 Octvs ClippersW 108-101Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 34
Thu 22 Octvs DenverW 96-84Jalen Williams 21
Tue 20 Octat San AntonioW 116-104Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 32
Houston RocketsLast 5: 4-1WWWWL
DateOpponentResultTop scorer
Fri 30 Octat DallasL 111-116Kevin Durant 28
Wed 28 Octat MilwaukeeW 132-100Fred VanVleet 24
Mon 26 Octvs AtlantaW 120-110Alperen Sengun 29
Sat 24 Octat AtlantaW 121-114Kevin Durant 22
Fri 23 Octat San AntonioW 114-110Alperen Sengun 29

Team news

ClubPlayerStatusLatest
Oklahoma CityAlex CarusoOut, ankleNo timetable
Oklahoma CityCason WallaceOut, shoulderNo timetable
Oklahoma CityChet HolmgrenOut, kneeNo timetable
Oklahoma CityJalen WilliamsOut, legNo timetable
Oklahoma CityNikola TopicOut, backWeek to week
Oklahoma CityThomas SorberOut, kneeWeek to week
HoustonSteven AdamsOut, calfWeek to week
HoustonAlperen SengunDay to day, backSee the official report before tip-off
HoustonReed SheppardDay to day, backSee the official report before tip-off

Sengun and Sheppard are the open questions, and Houston’s report was not in when we checked. Oklahoma City’s six absentees are all confirmed on the official NBA injury report.

For the other 28 clubs, our NBA injury report has the full list.

Probable starting fives

Oklahoma City ThunderStarted Wed 28 Oct at Dallas
PosPlayerThat gameStatus
CIsaiah Hartenstein10 pts, 14 reb, 3 astAvailable
GKenrich Williams7 pts, 3 reb, 0 astAvailable
GShai Gilgeous-Alexander21 pts, 6 reb, 2 astAvailable
GJared McCain10 pts, 4 reb, 4 astAvailable
GAjay Mitchell29 pts, 4 reb, 3 astAvailable
Houston RocketsStarted Fri 30 Oct at Dallas
PosPlayerThat gameStatus
FKevin Durant28 pts, 5 reb, 1 astAvailable
FJabari Smith Jr.22 pts, 3 reb, 2 astAvailable
CClint Capela5 pts, 11 reb, 5 astAvailable
GFred VanVleet16 pts, 5 reb, 6 astAvailable
GAmen Thompson15 pts, 3 reb, 6 astAvailable
Each club’s most recent starting five, checked against today’s injury list. A starter marked out has no named replacement yet: clubs confirm their starters about 30 minutes before tip-off.

Players to watch

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City. The Toronto-born guard had 34 against the Clippers last Sunday and 21 in 28 minutes in Dallas. Hartenstein is the only other opening-night starter still standing.

Amen Thompson, Houston. Thirty-nine minutes in Dallas on Friday, with 15 points and six assists. With Sengun uncertain, more of the playmaking falls to him and VanVleet.

Score prediction

Rockets 114-108 Thunder. Last season’s ratings make Oklahoma City about a three-point favourite in Houston. Those ratings had Williams, Holmgren, Caruso and Wallace on the floor. This season’s form says Houston, even on a back-to-back.

Thunder vs Rockets prediction

Oklahoma City has kept winning with half a rotation, but Dallas showed what happens when the shots stop falling. Houston won by 32 in Milwaukee with Sengun out, so the pick doesn’t depend on him playing.

Our pick: Houston to win, the Rockets at -3.5 or shorter. If Sengun is ruled out and the line shortens, the Rockets still appeal. No total.

Our player prop is Ajay Mitchell over 18.5 points. He scored 30 against Phoenix and 29 in Dallas in his two starts, after 4, 12 and 18 off the bench. With Williams, Caruso and Wallace all out, the minutes are his. Covers’ NBA prop board showed 18.5 at 8:03 a.m. ET.

Both clubs are placed in this week’s NBA power rankings. The NBA games tonight board lists the rest of Saturday’s games.

What time is Thunder vs Rockets?

Tip-off is 8:30pm ET / 7:30pm CT on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Toyota Center (Houston).

Where can I watch Thunder vs Rockets in Canada?

TSN, TSN+ and NBA TV Canada all carry it, so this is the easiest of Saturday’s games to find in Canada.

Is Chet Holmgren playing for the Thunder?

No. He had a knee procedure on Friday and, per Slam’s Nick Crain, is expected to miss at least eight to ten weeks.

Is Alperen Sengun playing for the Rockets?

He is day to day with a back injury and missed Friday’s game in Dallas. Houston had not filed its official report at 8 a.m. ET on Saturday.

What is our Thunder vs Rockets prediction?

Rockets 114-108. We back Houston to win, at -3.5 or shorter.

19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC). Picks are opinion, not advice, and odds change constantly. Availability varies by province. Please play responsibly. ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 for Ontario residents; see your province’s helpline for resources elsewhere.