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Thunder vs Mavericks: Prediction, Team News and SGA Against Flagg

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks prediction and picks

Oklahoma City has won all four games, and it has done it while the injury list grew. Jalen Williams needs surgery on a dislocated ankle and fractured fibula, Cason Wallace on a torn labrum, and Chet Holmgren and Alex Caruso are out tonight. So the question in Dallas is how much Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can carry against Cooper Flagg.

The Canadian is averaging 27.3 points through four games. Flagg has scored 32 and 29 in two of his three appearances.

Our best bet
Thunder to win
Score predictionThunder 115-108
SpreadThunder at -6.5 or shorter
TotalUnder at 228.5 or higher
Player propP.J. Washington over 14.5 points, if Irving is out
Watch in CanadaNBA TV Canada
Prop line checked on Covers’ NBA prop board at 6:55 a.m. ET on 28 October. Lines move, so check yours before you bet. Picks are opinion, not advice. 19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC).

How to watch Thunder vs Mavericks in Canada

Detail
GameOklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks
DateWednesday 28 October 2026
Tip-off9:30pm ET / 8:30pm CT
VenueAmerican Airlines Center, Dallas
RecordsOklahoma City 4-0, Dallas 2-2
RestOklahoma City with 1 day off, Dallas with 1 day off

In Canada it’s on NBA TV Canada. If you’re watching away from a TV, our how to watch the NBA in Canada page lists the streaming options.

Thunder vs Mavericks odds

There’s no Canadian line on this one yet. NBA prices tend to settle on game day, once the injury report does. The NBA betting hub explains where you can bet legally in Canada.

Oklahoma City is 4-0 with a shrinking rotation

Oklahoma City won 116-104 in San Antonio, then beat Denver 96-84, the Clippers 108-101 and Phoenix 125-114 at home. Gilgeous-Alexander scored 32, 17, 34 and 26.

Depth has been tested already. Ajay Mitchell scored 30 against Phoenix on Monday, Jared McCain hit four threes for 18, and Isaiah Hartenstein had 15 points and 13 rebounds. Mitchell is questionable with an ankle problem, so even that cover isn’t certain.

How they compare

2025-26Oklahoma City ThunderDallas Mavericks
Record64-1826-56
Net rating+11.0-5.3
Offensive rating117.0109.1
Defensive rating106.0114.3
Pace101.8104.6
Three-point %36.5%34.4%

Rates from last season. The gap was 16.3 points per 100 possessions, which is why a short-handed Thunder team is still the favourite in this Thunder vs Mavericks game.

Dallas has Flagg and a questionable Kyrie Irving

Dallas is 2-2: beaten 128-110 in Houston, winners 121-105 in Indiana, beaten 122-106 at home by San Antonio, then 113-109 winners in Miami on Monday. Flagg had 29 points and 11 assists that night.

Kyrie Irving is questionable (knee) and Naji Marshall (illness). Dallas went 26-56 last season, so even a .500 start is a change.

Oklahoma City swept last season’s meetings

DateResultVenue
1 Mar 2026Oklahoma City 100-87American Airlines Center
5 Dec 2025Oklahoma City 132-111Paycom Center
27 Oct 2025Oklahoma City 101-94American Airlines Center

Oklahoma City won all three, twice in Dallas. The highest total was 243, and two finished under 200.

Recent form

Oklahoma City ThunderLast 4: 4-0WWWW
DateOpponentResultTop scorer
Mon 26 Octvs PhoenixW 125-114Ajay Mitchell 30
Sun 25 Octvs ClippersW 108-101Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 34
Thu 22 Octvs DenverW 96-84Jalen Williams 21
Tue 20 Octat San AntonioW 116-104Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 32
Dallas MavericksLast 4: 2-2LWLW
DateOpponentResultTop scorer
Mon 26 Octat MiamiW 113-109Cooper Flagg 29
Sat 24 Octvs San AntonioL 106-122Sergio de Larrea 21
Fri 23 Octat IndianaW 121-105Kyrie Irving 24
Wed 21 Octat HoustonL 110-128Cooper Flagg 32

Team news

ClubPlayerStatusLatest
Oklahoma CityAlex CarusoOut, ankleOut for this game (27 Oct)
Oklahoma CityCason WallaceOut, shoulderNo timetable
Oklahoma CityChet HolmgrenOut, kneeOut for this game (27 Oct)
Oklahoma CityJalen WilliamsOut, legNo timetable
Oklahoma CityNikola TopicOut, backWeek to week
Oklahoma CityOtega OwehOut, achillesNo timetable
Oklahoma CityThomas SorberOut, kneeOut for this game (27 Oct)
Oklahoma CityAjay MitchellDay to day, ankleQuestionable for this game (27 Oct)
DallasCaleb MartinQuestionable, thumbQuestionable for this game (27 Oct)
DallasDereck Lively IIOut, footWeek to week
DallasSanti AldamaDoubtful, kneeDoubtful on the official report (28 Oct)
DallasSergio de LarreaOut, kneeOut for this game (27 Oct)
DallasTarik BiberovicDoubtful, heelDoubtful for this game (27 Oct)
DallasKyrie IrvingDay to day, kneeQuestionable for this game (27 Oct)
DallasNaji MarshallDay to day, illnessQuestionable for this game (27 Oct)

Questionable calls on both sides usually settle about an hour before tip-off. The official NBA injury report is the one to check late.

The NBA injury report covers the rest of the league.

Probable starting fives

Oklahoma City ThunderStarted Mon 26 Oct vs Phoenix
PosPlayerThat gameStatus
CIsaiah Hartenstein15 pts, 13 reb, 3 astAvailable
GKenrich Williams3 pts, 7 reb, 0 astAvailable
GShai Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts, 3 reb, 3 astAvailable
GJared McCain18 pts, 3 reb, 4 astAvailable
GAjay Mitchell30 pts, 2 reb, 5 astDay to day (ankle)
Dallas MavericksStarted Mon 26 Oct at Miami
PosPlayerThat gameStatus
FDaniel Gafford8 pts, 9 reb, 3 astAvailable
FP.J. Washington20 pts, 9 reb, 2 astAvailable
FCooper Flagg29 pts, 6 reb, 11 astAvailable
GKyrie Irving18 pts, 6 reb, 6 astDay to day (knee)
GMax Christie11 pts, 5 reb, 3 astAvailable
Each club’s most recent starting five, checked against today’s injury list. A starter marked out has no named replacement yet: clubs confirm their starters about 30 minutes before tip-off.

Players to watch

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City. His one quiet night, 17 on 6-of-19 against Denver, is also the Thunder’s lowest score so far.

Cooper Flagg, Dallas. He’s taken on more of the playmaking, with 11 assists in Miami. If Irving sits, the next-best scorer is P.J. Washington at 15.5 a game.

Score prediction

Thunder 115-108 Mavericks. Taken alone, last season’s ratings would make Oklahoma City a double-digit favourite, even on the road. We take about half of that away for Jalen Williams, Holmgren, Wallace and Caruso, and a questionable Irving takes some back from Dallas.

Thunder vs Mavericks prediction

Dallas has the home floor and a forward who can score 30. Oklahoma City has the best player on the court and a defence that held Denver to 84.

Our pick: Oklahoma City to win, the Thunder at -6.5 or shorter, and the under if the total sits at 228.5 or higher. Their three meetings a season ago averaged 208 points.

Our player prop is P.J. Washington over 14.5 points, but only if Kyrie Irving is ruled out. Washington has 10, 20, 12 and 20, and he’s the next scorer up without Irving. The line was 14.5 on Covers’ NBA prop board at 6:55 a.m. ET.

The NBA games tonight board lists the rest of Wednesday’s games.

What time is Thunder vs Mavericks?

Tip-off is 9:30pm ET / 8:30pm CT on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at American Airlines Center, Dallas.

Where can I watch Thunder vs Mavericks in Canada?

NBA TV Canada carries the game in Canada.

Is Chet Holmgren playing against Dallas?

No. He has been ruled out (knee), and Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace are out after injuries that need surgery.

Is Kyrie Irving playing tonight?

He’s questionable because of his knee, so his status may not be settled until close to tip-off.

What is our Thunder vs Mavericks prediction?

Thunder 115-108. We back Oklahoma City to win, at -6.5 or shorter, and the under at 228.5 or higher.

19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC). Picks are opinion, not advice, and odds change constantly. Availability varies by province. Please play responsibly. ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 for Ontario residents; see your province’s helpline for resources elsewhere.