Ilya Sorokin has a .934 save percentage and Sergei Bobrovsky has a .896, and that gap explains most of Islanders vs Maple Leafs. New York visits Scotiabank Arena at 7:00pm ET on Saturday 17 October, with Toronto still waiting on news about John Tavares.
How to watch
| Detail | |
|---|---|
| Game | New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs |
| Date | Saturday 17 October 2026 |
| Puck drop | 7:00pm ET |
| Venue | Scotiabank Arena |
| Records | New York 3-3-1, Toronto 3-3-2 |
Parts of Canada are blacked out for some games, and regional coverage doesn’t always match the national listing. Our how to watch the NHL in Canada guide covers the rest.
Islanders vs Maple Leafs odds
There wasn’t a Canadian price on this game when we wrote the page. Books usually post NHL lines the night before or the morning of, and once this one is up it’ll be on our NHL odds page, with priced picks on NHL predictions.
Toronto has seven players out and a goaltender who has not settled
Toronto is 3-3-2, with 28 goals scored and 28 allowed. Thursday’s 5-4 overtime loss to Buffalo came despite a Kirill Marchenko hat trick, which about sums up the season.
Neither goaltender has taken the job. Sergei Bobrovsky, signed in July, is 1-2-2 at a .896 and 3.34 in five starts and has already given up five or more twice. Anthony Stolarz has the other three starts and a .875.
John Tavares had set up two of Marchenko’s goals on Thursday before a collision with a Sabre ended his night, and he’s day to day. Chris Tanev, Dakota Joshua, Max Domi, Miles Wood and three others were already out.
How they compare
| 2025-26 | New York Islanders | Toronto Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 43-34-5 | 32-36-14 |
| Points | 91 | 78 |
| Goals for per game | 2.79 | 3.07 |
| Goals against per game | 2.88 | 3.60 |
| Power play | 16.5% | 21.3% |
| Penalty kill | 80.8% | 81.2% |
New York finished thirteen points ahead of Toronto last season. The Leafs went 32-36-14, missed the playoffs and gave up 3.60 goals a game to the Islanders’ 2.88, and that defensive gap has followed both teams into October.
New York concedes less than anyone else in Saturday’s Canadian games
The Islanders are 3-3-1, and their 17 goals against is the lowest of the twelve clubs in Saturday’s Canadian games. That’s how a team with 20 goals for stays in games.
Sorokin has won three of his five starts at a .934 and 1.81. Semyon Varlamov played all 65 minutes in Ottawa on Thursday and allowed one goal before losing in a shootout.
Twenty goals in seven games is the price of playing this way. Mathew Barzal hasn’t played this season and there’s no timeline for his return, and Alexander Romanov is out with a knee injury.
Toronto won on 30 September, but New York took the three before it
| Date | Result | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2026 | Toronto 2-1 | Toronto |
| 9 Apr 2026 | New York 5-3 | Long Island |
| 17 Mar 2026 | New York 3-1 | Toronto |
| 3 Jan 2026 | New York 4-3 (OT) | Long Island |
Toronto won the first meeting of the season 2-1 at home on 30 September. The Islanders had won the three before it, including 3-1 at Scotiabank Arena in March.
New York leads the all-time series 102 wins to 94. None of the last four meetings was decided by more than two goals.
Team news
| Club | Player | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto | John Tavares | Day to day. He collided with a Sabre on Thursday and left the game immediately, and the club said it would know more in the days after |
| Toronto | Chris Tanev | Out, upper body. Hurt against Colorado and likely to need more than the minimum spell on injured reserve |
| Toronto | Dakota Joshua | Out, abdomen. Week to week, and set to miss at least Toronto’s first ten games |
| Toronto | Max Domi | Out, back. No timetable after complications from summer surgery |
| Toronto | Elvis Merzlikins | Out, shoulder, long term. He was traded to Toronto and a timetable followed within a day |
| Toronto | Miles Wood | Out, undisclosed, on injured reserve |
| Toronto | Cade Webber | Out, elbow, on injured reserve |
| Toronto | William Villeneuve | Out, knee, on injured reserve |
| New York | Mathew Barzal | Out, knee. He has not played this season and the club has not offered a recovery timeline |
| New York | Alexander Romanov | Out, knee, long term |
Check Tavares at the morning skate. Toronto is already without Tanev on the blue line and Joshua and Domi up front, and losing its second-line centre against a team that defends like New York could decide it. The rest of the league’s injuries are on our NHL injury report.
Players to watch
Ilya Sorokin, New York. A .934 save percentage and 1.81 goals against through five starts.
Kirill Marchenko, Toronto. A hat trick against Buffalo on Thursday, two of the goals set up by Tavares. He’s been Toronto’s best forward.
Matthew Schaefer, New York. Logging heavy minutes with Romanov out, and he set up two goals against Vancouver on Tuesday.
Score prediction
New York Islanders 3-2 Toronto Maple Leafs. Sorokin is the best player in the building, Toronto’s injury list runs to eight, and we expect a low-scoring one-goal game.
Islanders vs Maple Leafs prediction
We’d take New York. Sorokin is at .934, the Islanders have allowed 17 goals in seven games, and Toronto has seven players out with Tavares an eighth question. Bobrovsky hasn’t given the Leafs a settled night yet.
Toronto did win this matchup 2-1 on 30 September, and Marchenko is scoring. Our lean: the Islanders, and the under if the total sits at 6 or higher. Only two of New York’s seven games have had more than six goals. Our NHL power rankings have both teams in context, and the full Saturday slate is on the NHL schedule.
Puck drop is 7:00pm ET on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto.
He is day to day. He collided with a Sabre on Thursday and left the game immediately, and Toronto said it would know more in the days after.
Sergei Bobrovsky has started five of eight at a .896 save percentage, with Anthony Stolarz taking the other three. Neither has claimed the job.
New York leads the all-time series 102 wins to 94, but Toronto won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 30 September 2026.
New York to win 3-2, and the under if the total sits at 6 or higher.
19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC). Picks are opinion, not advice, and odds change constantly. Availability varies by province. Please play responsibly. ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 for Ontario residents; see your province’s helpline for resources elsewhere.