Result: Buffalo Sabres 5-4 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)
Kirill Marchenko scored three and lost. Toronto led 4-2 in the second period. Buffalo took the third through Dennis Gilbert and Mattias Samuelsson, and Owen Power won it 3:14 into overtime. Jack Quinn finished with two goals and two assists. Sergei Bobrovsky made 29 saves on 34 in his first real test since signing, and Buffalo outshot Toronto 34-30.
We called Toronto 5-3. Wrong side, and it took overtime to be wrong. The over landed, nine goals against a line of 6.5. What stings is that the page flagged the risk itself. Buffalo took three of four last season and won 7-4 in this building doing it, we wrote exactly that, and then picked against it on home ice anyway.
The preview as published before the game follows.
Buffalo has won three of the last four against Toronto. The Maple Leafs host the Sabres at Scotiabank Arena on Thursday 15 October. Puck drop is 7:00pm ET. Both clubs arrive on 3-3-1. Our Maple Leafs vs Sabres prediction, the team news and the Canadian prices are below.
How to watch
| Detail | |
|---|---|
| Game | Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs |
| Date | Thursday 15 October 2026 |
| Puck drop | 7:00pm ET |
| Venue | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto |
| Records | Toronto 3-3-1, Buffalo 3-3-1 |
Regional coverage differs from the national listing and blackouts apply in parts of Canada. Our how to watch the NHL in Canada page has the full picture.
Maple Leafs vs Sabres odds
Canadian books post NHL prices the night before or the morning of a game, and this one was not on the board when the page was built. The live board is on our NHL odds page, and the daily picks with prices sit on NHL predictions.
This matchup does not respect the standings
Buffalo leads the all-time series 145 wins to 102. More to the point, it took three of the four meetings last season. That run included a 7-4 night at Scotiabank Arena in January and a shootout win in March. Toronto’s one victory came in overtime.
Go back a season further and it swings the other way, with Toronto winning three of four. There is also a 9-3 Buffalo win from December 2023 sitting in the record. Whatever else this matchup is, it is rarely close to the form line.
How they compare
| 2025-26 | Buffalo Sabres | Toronto Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 50-23-9 | 32-36-14 |
| Points | 109 | 78 |
| Goals for per game | 3.45 | 3.07 |
| Goals against per game | 2.93 | 3.60 |
| Power play | 19.5% | 21.3% |
| Penalty kill | 81.9% | 81.2% |
Buffalo finished 31 points clear of Toronto last season and conceded two thirds of a goal less per game. Toronto had the better power play. Neither club has started this season looking like those numbers.
Toronto comes home after a strange road trip
The Maple Leafs have just played three straight away from home. They lost in a shootout in Vegas, won 6-3 in Denver with William Nylander collecting five points, then lost 5-4 in Utah on Tuesday after trailing 3-0 and 5-2. That is a team scoring freely and defending badly.
Toronto’s five games have produced 39 goals between the sides, an average of 7.8 a night. Buffalo’s have produced 29, at 5.8. The Sabres have been shut out once and have conceded four or more three times. Both clubs can be scored on.
Team news
| Club | Player | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | Rasmus Dahlin | Day to day with an upper-body injury. He did not travel for Tuesday’s game in Montréal, and head coach Lindy Ruff named this game as his next chance to return |
| Buffalo | Jason Zucker | Out. Ruff said on Tuesday that he needs a couple of weeks more after sports hernia surgery |
| Buffalo | Matt Grzelcyk | Out, lower body, on injured reserve |
| Buffalo | Alex Lyon | Out. No timetable, in his coach’s words, though he skated on Tuesday morning |
| Toronto | Chris Tanev | Out, upper body, on injured reserve |
| Toronto | Dakota Joshua | Out. He will miss at least Toronto’s first ten games |
| Toronto | Max Domi | Out, back. No timetable after complications from summer surgery |
| Toronto | Elvis Merzlikins | Out, shoulder. Traded to Toronto and ruled out long term |
Dahlin is the swing factor. Buffalo is already without Grzelcyk and Conor Timmins on the blue line, so losing its best defenceman for a third straight game would stretch things thin. Toronto has its own hole there with Tanev out. Availability across the league is on our NHL injury report.
Who is in goal
Toronto’s tandem is Sergei Bobrovsky and Anthony Stolarz. Bobrovsky made 30 saves in the win at Colorado. Stolarz played in Utah on Tuesday and picked up an assist on a John Tavares power-play goal, which is not a line you write often.
Buffalo leans on Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen while Lyon is out. He stopped 35 of 38 in Montréal on Tuesday and still lost in a shootout. Starters are confirmed at the morning skate, and our projected NHL starting goalies page tracks them.
Players to watch
William Nylander, Toronto. Five points in Denver last Saturday, two of them goals. He has been the best Maple Leaf of the opening fortnight by a clear margin.
Olen Zellweger, Buffalo. The defenceman scored twice in Montréal on Tuesday, including the goal that forced overtime. With Dahlin uncertain he is carrying more.
Gavin McKenna, Toronto. He scored in Utah and set up a goal in Denver. Toronto’s rookie is producing in a side that needs it.
Score prediction
Toronto Maple Leafs 5-3 Buffalo Sabres. Toronto is home after three on the road and scoring at a rate nobody has contained. Buffalo is missing bodies on the blue line. The margin stays at two because Toronto keeps conceding.
Maple Leafs vs Sabres prediction
Toronto should win this at home. It scored six in Denver and four in Utah, and it faces a Buffalo defence missing Grzelcyk and Timmins with Dahlin a question. The Sabres have also played twice already this week.
The case against is the series itself. Buffalo took three of four last season and won 7-4 at Scotiabank Arena doing it, so recent history says ignore home ice here. Our lean: Toronto, and the over if the total sits at 6.5 or lower. Toronto’s games are averaging 7.8 goals and neither goaltending group has looked settled. Where both sit against the other 30 is on our NHL power rankings, and the rest of Thursday is on the NHL schedule.
Puck drop is 7:00pm ET on Thursday 15 October 2026 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto.
He is day to day with an upper-body injury. He missed Tuesday’s game in Montréal, and head coach Lindy Ruff named this game as his next chance to return. It is not confirmed either way.
Toronto’s tandem is Sergei Bobrovsky and Anthony Stolarz. Bobrovsky started the win in Colorado, Stolarz played in Utah on Tuesday. The starter is confirmed at the morning skate rather than in advance.
Buffalo, 3-2 in a shootout at KeyBank Center on 14 March 2026. Buffalo took three of the four meetings last season.
Toronto to win, and the over if the total sits at 6.5 or lower. Toronto is home after three on the road, Buffalo is short on the blue line, and Toronto’s games have averaged 7.8 goals.
19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC). Picks are opinion, not advice, and odds change constantly. Availability varies by province. Please play responsibly. ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 for Ontario residents; see your province’s helpline for resources elsewhere.