Our Saints vs Lions prediction backs Detroit comfortably. New Orleans travels to Ford Field on Sunday, September 13 for a 1:00 PM ET kickoff on FOX. Both sides open the 2026 NFL season here. Ultimately the Signal block below carries the live read, including where the value sits. Signal rates every Week 1 game the same way.
The gap here is about finishing rather than moving. Detroit scored 481 points in 2025 against New Orleans’s 306; indeed, only Cleveland managed fewer across this weekend’s slate.
Notably, the red zone is where it separates. Detroit converted 62.5% of their trips inside the twenty; New Orleans converted 44.4%, the weakest rate of any team playing this round. Consequently the Saints need roughly half as many chances again to match the scoreboard.
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions
New Orleans SaintsSquawka27%Market26%▬ Fair
Detroit LionsSquawka73%Market74%▬ FairSquawka Signal is our model’s read against devigged market prices, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 21+. Play responsibly. Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX.
Saints vs Lions: our editor’s prop
One editorial call to sit alongside the live Signal numbers above.
AT Our prop
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Saints vs Lions: 2025 season form
Detroit finished 9-8 and New Orleans 6-11. However, the points tell a starker story: 481 against 306.
| 2025 regular season | Saints | Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-11 | 9-8 |
| Points for | 306 | 481 |
| Points against | 383 | 413 |
| Point differential | -77 | +68 |
| Sacks recorded | 45 | 49 |
| Sacks allowed | 49 | 39 |
| Interceptions made | 10 | 13 |
| Third-down offense | 39.5% | 38.8% |
| Red-zone offense | 44.4% | 62.5% |
| Red zone allowed | 53.2% | 59.6% |
| Opponent passer rating | 91.8 | 92.5 |
The red-zone rows carry it. Detroit converted 62.5% inside the twenty while New Orleans managed 44.4%, and the Saints also allowed 49 sacks. Their defense was not the problem, however: 45 sacks and a 91.8 opponent passer rating is respectable, and the trouble was scoring at all.
Saints vs Lions injury report and team news
Both sides expect their first-choice quarterbacks. The live Out, Doubtful and Questionable designations appear in the table below, and they update as the official report lands through the week.
Tyler Shough is expected to start for New Orleans, though the Saints had not confirmed it at the time of writing. Chris Olave leads the receivers after 1,163 yards in 2025, meanwhile, with Alvin Kamara and Travis Etienne Jr. sharing the backfield.
Jared Goff starts for Detroit. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams both cleared 1,100 receiving yards last season, while Jahmyr Gibbs and Isiah Pacheco split the carries and Sam LaPorta plays tight end.
New Orleans SaintsDetroit LionsThe matchup that decides it: Detroit’s red zone against a Saints offense that stalls
Detroit converted 62.5% of red-zone trips in 2025 and posted a 105.5 passer rating, the highest of any team playing this weekend. Moreover, Goff threw 35 touchdowns against eight interceptions.
New Orleans is the mirror image. Their 44.4% red-zone conversion was the worst rate on the slate, and 3.69 yards a carry gave them no reliable short-yardage answer. Therefore drives that reach the twenty tend to end in field goals.
Still, the Saints do have a route. Their defense recorded 45 sacks and held opponents to 53.2% in the red zone, both better than Detroit managed. Still, keeping a 481-point offense to field goals for a full afternoon is a tall order.
Players to watch
- Jared Goff (DET, QB): 4,303 yards and 35 touchdowns in 2025 at a 105.5 rating, the best mark on this weekend’s slate.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET, WR): 1,401 receiving yards last season, fifth in the league.
- Aidan Hutchinson (DET, DE): 14 sacks in 2025, against a line that conceded 49.
- Chris Olave (NO, WR): 1,163 receiving yards, and the Saints’ clearest route to points.
- Alvin Kamara (NO, RB): Now sharing the backfield with Travis Etienne Jr. after his move from Jacksonville.
How to watch Saints vs Lions
The game kicks off at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 13 at Ford Field in Detroit. FOX has the broadcast, meanwhile, with NFL+ carrying it on mobile. Because this is an early Sunday window, coverage is regional, so check your local listings.
| Detail | Saints vs Lions |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 13, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM CT / 11:00 AM MT / 10:00 AM PT |
| Venue | Ford Field, Detroit, MI |
| TV | FOX |
| Live stream | FOX / NFL+ |
| Week | Week 1, 2026 NFL season |
Saints vs Lions prediction and score projection
Our Saints vs Lions prediction is a comfortable Detroit win. Indeed, a 481-point offense against the weakest red-zone attack on the slate is about as clean a mismatch as Week 1 offers.
Notably, Signal currently puts New Orleans at 27% and Detroit at 73%, with a projected line of Detroit Lions -7. Meanwhile the devigged market reads 26% on New Orleans and 74% on Detroit.
New Orleans is not without resistance. Their 45 sacks and 53.2% red-zone defense are both better than Detroit’s equivalents, so this need not be a rout.
So we will take the Lions to win, 28-22. Which side carries the value, though, is a separate question from who wins, and the live read on that sits in the Signal block.
Signal rates every game on our NFL picks page. Meanwhile the title race is priced through Super Bowl LXI odds, with both conferences on the NFC and AFC Championship pages. Finally, player markets sit with our NFL player props coverage, and kickoff is confirmed on NFL.com.
Saints vs Lions FAQ
The Lions, comfortably. Detroit scored 481 points in 2025 to New Orleans’s 306 and converted 62.5% of red-zone trips against the Saints’ 44.4%. The live win probability and the current market price both sit in the Signal block on this page.
Spreads move all week, so both the live line and our model’s projected line sit in the Signal block rather than in this answer. As a guide to the gap: Detroit finished 9-8 at plus 68, New Orleans 6-11 at minus 77.
FOX has the broadcast and NFL+ carries it on mobile. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 13, 2026 from Ford Field in Detroit. Coverage is regional in the early window.
Tyler Shough is expected to start, although the Saints had not confirmed it at the time of writing. Spencer Rattler and Zach Wilson are the alternatives on the roster.
Lions 28-22. Detroit’s 62.5% red-zone conversion against New Orleans’s 44.4% is the clearest edge in the fixture. Nevertheless the Saints’ 45 sacks should keep it from becoming a rout.
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change