Cleveland were shut out in Game 1 and two down inside two days. They have since scored nine runs twice in Chicago and dragged this series back to Progressive Field for a fifth game. Winner goes to the Championship Series, loser goes home, and Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated US prediction market, now has the Guardians in front.
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Match markets — White Sox vs Guardians
Cleveland sit at 56% and Chicago at 43%, every market on one-cent spreads — the tightest pricing of any game in this series, which is what a decider tends to attract. The run lines back the swing: the Guardians are 51% to clear 3.5 runs against Chicago’s 46%. A week ago the market had this matchup as a coin toss. Two road wins have moved it thirteen points.
Match Markets — White Sox vs Guardians
Game Winner
- Chicago WS43%
- Cleveland56%
White Sox Runs
- Over 3.546%
- Over 4.533%
Guardians Runs
- Over 3.551%
- Over 4.537%
Claim offer →Probabilities are the live Kalshi yes-side bid, correct at 5:50pm ET on October 10. Markets move; not financial advice. 18+. Full Kalshi review.
Chicago took the first two in Cleveland, winning Game 1 3-0 behind Munetaka Murakami’s homer. The Guardians answered 9-3 and then 9-5 at Rate Field to level it — from being held to three hits in the opener to nine runs in consecutive elimination games. Gavin Williams starts for Cleveland, Sean Burke for Chicago, and the winner meets Tampa Bay, who swept the Yankees and have been waiting since Wednesday.
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More on prediction markets
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