Milwaukee won 103 games this season and Los Angeles won 100. They meet at American Family Field on Sunday night with the National League pennant at stake, and Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated US prediction market, cannot separate them by more than a single percentage point.
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Match markets — Dodgers vs Brewers
Milwaukee sit at 50% and Los Angeles at 49%, every market on one-cent spreads. What stands out is underneath: the Dodgers are 40% to clear 3.5 runs and the Brewers 38%, the two lowest run lines of any team we have priced this postseason. The market is expecting a tight, low-scoring opener, which is what you would expect from this pitching matchup.
Match Markets — Dodgers vs Brewers
Game Winner
- Los Angeles D49%
- Milwaukee50%
Dodgers Runs
- Over 3.540%
- Over 4.527%
Brewers Runs
- Over 3.538%
- Over 4.524%
Claim offer →Probabilities are the live Kalshi yes-side bid, correct at 4:00am ET on October 11. Markets move; not financial advice. 18+. Full Kalshi review.
Both sides arrived here the same way, winning their Division Series 3-1 — Milwaukee over San Diego, Los Angeles over Atlanta. The Brewers hand Game 1 to Jacob Misiorowski, who went 16-5 with a major-league-best 1.80 ERA and 252 strikeouts in the regular season. Los Angeles counter with Tarik Skubal, who carries a 1.97 ERA across seven career postseason starts. On paper it is the best pitching matchup of the entire postseason so far, and the run lines say the market agrees.
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