Milwaukee lead this World Series 2-0 and have won it by a combined two runs. Tampa Bay go home to Tropicana Field on Monday night needing to start winning, and Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated US prediction market, makes them narrow favourites to do exactly that — while still giving them only 15% to lift the trophy.
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Match markets — Brewers vs Rays
Those two numbers side by side are the story. Tampa Bay are 52% for Game 3 and Milwaukee 47%, a coin flip in the Rays’ favour at home. On the series board Milwaukee are 83% and Tampa Bay 17%. That gap is what a 2-0 deficit costs: the market rates the Rays a slightly better bet to win Monday and a heavy outsider to win four of the next five.
Match Markets — Brewers vs Rays
Game Winner
- Milwaukee47%
- Tampa Bay52%
World Series Winner
- Milwaukee83%
- Tampa Bay17%
Brewers Runs
- Over 2.562%
- Over 3.547%
Rays Runs
- Over 2.563%
- Over 3.548%
Claim offer →Probabilities are the live Kalshi yes-side bid, correct at 1:08pm ET on October 26. Markets move; not financial advice. 18+. Full Kalshi review.
Both Milwaukee wins came by a single run, 3-2 and then 5-4, which is a two-game lead built on the narrowest possible margins. Tampa Bay give the ball to Freddy Peralta, the ALCS MVP, who has a 1.08 ERA across four postseason outings and conceded one run in twelve innings against Cleveland. Milwaukee counter with Robert Gasser, who has allowed one run in nine innings this October and threw five shutout innings at the Dodgers in the NLCS.
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More on prediction markets
- What is Kalshi? Sports prediction markets explained
- Kalshi vs Polymarket: which prediction market is better?
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