Necaxa host Mazatlán in Liga MX on Friday at Estadio Victoria, with both sides scrapping for traction in a Clausura that’s refused to settle for either of them.
Necaxa are in 11th place with 13 points, while Mazatlán sit 16th with 11 points.
The main draw for bettors is simple: Necaxa look far more stable defensively than the visitors, whose habit of conceding chances often forces them into damage control. In a match where a single disciplined stretch could be the difference, it is difficult to look past the home side.
Best Bets & Predictions
| Pick | Odds | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Necaxa to win | -105 @ Bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Necaxa are the more reliable side in the moments that decide matches, especially when the game gets stretched and mistakes get punished. Mazatlán have leaked 23 goals in 12 Clausura matches, and that’s the sort of defending that makes an away win feel like a reach. Expect the hosts to find a way through and take the points. |
| Over 2.5 goals | -142 @ Bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | This has the shape of a match where one goal won’t feel safe for long, because both attacks can land punches even when the overall performance is messy. Necaxa have scored 14 goals in 12 Clausura games, and Mazatlán have matched that with 14 of their own. If the visitors open up chasing it, the total can get away quickly. |
| Both Teams To Score — Yes | -142 @ Bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Mazatlán don’t always play well, but they do carry enough threat to nick one, and Necaxa rarely look like a side built to shut games down early. Necaxa have conceded 16 goals in 12 Clausura matches, so the door is usually open for an opponent to land a moment. One goal each feels like the baseline here. |
| Tomas Badaloni anytime goalscorer | +140 @ Bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Tomas Badaloni is the kind of forward who stays involved even when the game goes scrappy, and that matters against a defence that invites pressure. He’s hit three Clausura goals, and he’s put 12 shots on target, which tells you he’s getting into finishable spots. If Necaxa spend long spells in the final third, he’s a prime candidate to be the one who cashes it. |
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading involves high risk and may result in loss of your entire investment. See polymarket.us/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange and clearing organization
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Necaxa | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 13 |
| 16 | Mazatlan | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 11 |
Recent Form
Necaxa Recent Form
- W 3-0 vs Tijuana (Home)
- D 0-0 vs Puebla (Away)
- L 0-1 vs Pumas UNAM (Home)
- L 1-2 vs Pachuca (Away)
- L 1-2 vs León (Away)
Necaxa’s recent story is momentum, lost and then reclaimed: three straight defeats gave way to a clean, convincing win last time out. The 3-0 over Tijuana is the result that changes the mood, and it also makes the home angle feel far less scary than it did a fortnight earlier.
Mazatlán Recent Form
- D 1-1 vs Cruz Azul (Home)
- L 0-2 vs Club América (Away)
- W 4-2 vs León (Home)
- L 1-4 vs Atlético San Luis (Away)
- W 1-0 vs Pachuca (Home)
Mazatlán have shown they can turn matches into shootouts when the front line clicks, but the floor is painfully low once they’re forced to defend for long spells. The 1-4 at Atlético San Luis is the glaring warning sign, and it’s exactly the sort of collapse that makes backing them away from home feel like a leap of faith.
Head-to-Head
It’s been tough to call this fixture recently, with a win each and two draws in the last four. That said, Necaxa are unbeaten in the last three, with two draws bookending a 3-1 win just over a year ago in the last Clausura. In fact, Mazatlan have won just one of the last nine meetings, with a lot of draws during that time.
Potential Match-Winners
Javier Ruiz has been Necaxa’s sharpest finisher in the Clausura, and he doesn’t need a mountain of minutes to leave a mark. He’s scored four goals in seven matches, and that kind of efficiency makes him the obvious danger if Mazatlán offer him even a yard in the box. If the hosts get an early foothold, he’s the one most likely to turn pressure into a lead.
Edgar Yoel Barcenas Herrera is Mazatlán’s best hope of creating something clean when the game gets tense and hurried. He’s produced four big chances in the Clausura, which is the profile of a player who can manufacture a moment even when the team are second-best. If Mazatlán score, there’s a good chance it starts with him doing something clever in the final third.
Danny Leyva has been Necaxa’s creative force this Clausura, with a team-high 23 chances and three big chances created — the former 10 clear of any other player. That’s converted to two assists, and the Mexican-American midfielder will be the one to unlock Ruiz and Badaloni here.
Necaxa vs Mazatlán Prediction
Necaxa don’t need to be perfect to win this — they just need to be more solid than a Mazatlán side that’s spent the Clausura giving goals away far too easily. With the visitors shipping 23 goals in 12 matches, the home side should get enough chances to make their edge count, even if Mazatlán land a punch at the other end. Keep it simple and ride the stronger side: Necaxa to win at -105 @ Bet365.
More Liga MX coverage: Liga MX standings 2026 | Fixtures and results