New York Red Bulls host NYCFC on Saturday, May 16 (7:30 PM ET), at Sports Illustrated Stadium for the Hudson River derby, with both clubs level on 18 points and locked in the East playoff scrap.
Our New York Red Bulls vs NYCFC prediction starts where the rivalry always does: it is loud, it is scrappy, and the two clubs cannot be split on the table. Five wins, three draws, five losses, 18 points apiece. NYCFC carry the better goal difference and the cleaner recent run, NYRB the home ground and the in-form striker.
This is the second New York meeting in quick succession, with NYCFC dumping the Red Bulls out of the US Open Cup 3-1 in this very stadium. In MLS play, NYCFC edged Charlotte FC on the road and the Red Bulls overturned Columbus Crew at home during the week. The mood travels with the teams into a fixture that almost never produces a quiet 90 minutes. Odds for this fixture had not landed at our local sportsbook at the time of writing — check bet365 for the latest.
New York Red Bulls vs NYCFC: Best Bets & Predictions
The framing here is straightforward: two teams that score and concede in equal measure, a rivalry that almost never throws up a clean sheet at both ends, and a home side that has shipped a goal in 11 straight outings. Lean into goals, lean into the derby’s recent pattern, and lean on the players actually finding the net.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score: Yes | -200 @ bet365 (see operator) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | NYRB have conceded in 11 straight matches; both teams have scored in eight of NYRB’s last 10. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | -175 @ bet365 (see operator) | ⭐⭐⭐ | The home side has averaged 4.2 goals per match across the last five (10 for, 11 against). Three of those five cleared 2.5. |
| NYCFC to Win | Lines opening soon @ bet365 (see operator) | ⭐⭐⭐ | NYCFC have won six of the last 10 Hudson River meetings and out-scored NYRB 15-8 across them. |
| Correct Score: 1-2 NYCFC | +900 @ bet365 (see operator) | ⭐⭐ | Reflects the both-teams-score read alongside NYCFC’s edge in finishing — three of the last five Hudson River meetings have produced two or three goals. Four NYCFC wins during that stretch. |
| Nicolas Fernández Anytime Goalscorer | Lines opening soon @ bet365 (see operator) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Nine goals in 13 MLS matches for NYCFC’s leading scorer, and NYRB have conceded in every one of their last 11 outings. |
| Julian Hall Anytime Goalscorer | Lines opening soon @ bet365 (see operator) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Nine goals in 13 for the NYRB teenager, who became the youngest MLS player to score a hat-trick in midweek — top of his side’s scoring chart and the obvious home threat in a derby that tends to open up. |
Our approach: anchor on Both Teams to Score and an N. Fernández anytime card, then add NYCFC to Win for parlay value if the line opens at plus money.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability
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Match-specific prediction market pricing for New York Red Bulls vs NYCFC has not yet surfaced at time of writing. The sportsbook read via the bet365 outright market is the cleaner tool for this match. We will update here if and when Kalshi or Polymarket list the fixture.
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Season Form & Standings
The conference picture could not be closer between these two: both clubs sit on 18 points from 13 matches, separated only by NYCFC’s better goal difference. Either result here will reshape the middle of the MLS standings.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYCFC | 5 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 18 | +5 | 18 |
| New York Red Bulls | 6 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 30 | -8 | 18 |
Potential Match-Winners
Nicolas Fernández (NYCFC): With nine goals in 13 MLS appearances and over 1,149 minutes of regular service, the Boys in Blue’s leading scorer is undoubtedly the obvious focal point, especially against a back line that has been conceding in every game.
Julian Hall (New York Red Bulls): On the other side, the home academy product also boasts nine goals in 13 matches. Consequently, he leads the line, while Cade Cowell and Eric Choupo-Moting serve as auxiliary options. Furthermore, he enters this matchup having just scored a historic hat-trick against Columbus on Wednesday.
Hannes Wolf (NYCFC): Meanwhile, Hannes Wolf has contributed five goals and two assists in 12 appearances. Specifically, the Austrian’s dynamic running off Fernández has acted as the engine of NYCFC’s better evenings.
Emil Forsberg (New York Red Bulls): Conversely, Emil Forsberg has tallied three assists and a goal in 13 matches. Ultimately, the Swede’s set-piece delivery remains NYRB’s most reliable creative weapon during tight games.
Maxi Moralez (NYCFC): Finally, Maxi Moralez has racked up six assists in 13 outings. Indeed, the veteran’s vision in the final third has consistently served as the team’s primary chance-creation hub.
Head-to-Head
NYCFC have owned this rivalry of late, winning six of the last 10 league meetings and outscoring NYRB 15-8 across them. Six of those 10 have been at NYCFC’s home ground, but the away side has also taken results in the Bronx fixtures — the road game has not been the firewall it usually is in this rivalry.
Overall, the Red Bulls lead the series 16-13, with just four draws all-time (all comps).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2025 | New York Red Bulls 2-3 NYCFC | MLS |
| May 17, 2025 | NYCFC 2-0 New York Red Bulls | MLS |
| Nov 23, 2024 | NYCFC 0-2 New York Red Bulls | MLS |
| Sep 29, 2024 | New York Red Bulls 1-5 NYCFC | MLS |
| May 19, 2024 | NYCFC 2-1 New York Red Bulls | MLS |
Recent Form
New York Red Bulls: D L L W W
- May 13, 2026: New York Red Bulls 3-2 Columbus Crew (W, home)
- May 9, 2026: Chicago Fire FC 1-3 New York Red Bulls (W, away)
- May 3, 2026: New York Red Bulls 0-2 FC Dallas (L, home)
- April 26, 2026: FC Cincinnati 2-0 New York Red Bulls (L, away)
- April 23, 2026: New York Red Bulls 4-4 DC United (D, home)
NYRB arrive on a two-match winning run, the last loss a 0-2 defeat at home to FC Dallas on May 2. The bigger structural story is at the other end: the Red Bulls have conceded in 11 straight matches, with the last clean sheet a 1-0 home win against New England on February 28.
NYCFC: D L L W W
- May 13, 2026: Charlotte FC 0-1 NYCFC (W, away)
- May 10, 2026: NYCFC 3-0 Columbus Crew (W, home)
- May 3, 2026: NYCFC 0-2 DC United (L, home)
- April 25, 2026: CF Montreal 1-0 NYCFC (L, away)
- April 23, 2026: NYCFC 4-4 FC Cincinnati (D, home)
NYCFC have kept clean sheets in their last two outings, the most recent goal conceded against DC United on May 3. That defensive resurgence is what makes the line look firm for the visitors: New York City have allowed only seven goals across their last five and turned a wobble into back-to-back wins.
New York Red Bulls vs NYCFC Prediction
This one feels like a 2-1 to the Boys in Blue. NYCFC’s better balance, NYRB’s leaking back line, and a derby tradition that almost never produces a clean sheet at both ends all point the same way. NYCFC to Win with bet365 is the headline play once lines open; a Fernández anytime goalscorer card is the obvious add-on. Kick-off is 8:30 PM ET / 7:30 PM CT / 5:30 PM PT at Sports Illustrated Stadium. For more weekend reads, see our soccer predictions and the rest of the MLS hub.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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