Leeds host Brighton at Elland Road on Sunday, May 17 at 11:00 AM ET / 10:00 AM CT / 8:00 AM PT, the penultimate Premier League round of the season. The hosts sit 14th and comfortably mid-table; the visitors are 7th on 53 points, level on goal difference with sixth-placed Bournemouth and chasing the last Europa-place finish.
Brighton are on a long scoring run and have won the last four league meetings between the two clubs. Leeds have conceded in each of their last three home outings, and the cross-market read points the same direction as the price.
bet365 price Brighton at +110 to win, with Leeds at +240 and the draw at +260. The market reflects a Brighton edge that the underlying numbers back.
Leeds vs Brighton: Best Bets & Predictions
The approach: lean into Brighton’s scoring run and the goal-heavy recent shape of both clubs, with one value swing on a tight Brighton win.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton to Win | +110 @ bet365 (47.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Brighton have won the last four league meetings with Leeds, including a 3-0 win at the Amex in November; Leeds have conceded in each of their last three home outings. |
| Correct Score: Leeds 1-2 Brighton | +1100 @ bet365 (8.3%) | ⭐⭐ | Covers the cross-market read of Brighton win + Over 2.5 + BTTS in one ticket. |
| Welbeck to score anytime | +140 @ bet365 (41.7%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Welbeck leads the Brighton line with 13 league goals from 9.18 xG — the over-performance on top of the volume makes him the cleanest individual edge on the board. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | -150 @ bet365 (60.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Four of the last five for both sides have cleared 2.5, and Leeds have conceded in each of their last three home games. |
| Both Teams to Score: Yes | -175 @ bet365 (63.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Leeds have scored in their last five and Brighton are on a seven-game scoring run, with both home defences leaking. |
Our approach: anchor with Brighton ML at +110, layer Welbeck Anytime as the value single-leg, and lean Brighton 2-1 as the correct-score swing.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability
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Match-specific prediction market pricing for Leeds vs Brighton has not yet surfaced at time of writing on either Kalshi or Polymarket. The sportsbook read is the cleaner tool for this fixture. We will reflect any later pricing here if Kalshi or Polymarket list the fixture.
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Season Form & Standings
Brighton are 7th on 53 points, level on goal difference with sixth-placed Bournemouth, and remain in the Europa-place picture with two rounds to play. Leeds, 10th from the bottom on 44 points, are mathematically safe and treating the closer as a free hit.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 7 | 36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 52 | 42 | +10 | 53 |
| Leeds | 14 | 36 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 40 | 45 | -5 | 44 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Welbeck (Brighton): 13 league goals from 9.18 xG in 24 starts — the season-defining personal campaign that has carried the Brighton line, and bet365’s clear favorite for Anytime Goalscorer at +140.
- Minteh (Brighton): three goals and four assists from the wide-attacking role, with 41 shots and an xG/xA profile that comfortably outpaces his finishing return. With Mitoma sidelined by a hamstring issue, Minteh’s load goes up again.
- Calvert-Lewin (Leeds): the home side’s lone top-end threat with 13 league goals at +160 for Anytime Goalscorer, and four-for-four from the penalty spot this season.
- Verbruggen (Brighton): the Dutch keeper has been ever-present, racking up 100 saves and 10 clean sheets across 36 starts.
Head-to-Head
Brighton have won the last four Premier League meetings between these two and outscored Leeds 10-3 across the recent sample. The reverse fixture at the Amex in November went the Seagulls’ way 3-0, the most directly comparable data point on the board.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2025 | Brighton 3-0 Leeds | Premier League |
| Mar 10, 2023 | Leeds 2-2 Brighton | Premier League |
| Aug 26, 2022 | Brighton 1-0 Leeds | Premier League |
| May 14, 2022 | Leeds 1-1 Brighton | Premier League |
| Nov 26, 2021 | Brighton 0-0 Leeds | Premier League |
Recent Form
Leeds — W W D W D
- May 10, 2026: Tottenham 0-1 Leeds (W, away)
- May 3, 2026: Leeds 3-0 Bournemouth (W, home)
- Apr 26, 2026: Leeds 1-1 Fulham (D, home)
- Apr 19, 2026: Leeds 2-1 Burnley (W, home)
- Apr 12, 2026: West Ham 1-1 Leeds (D, away)
Leeds have taken 11 points from their last five and are unbeaten in seven on the bounce. The flip side: they have conceded in each of their last three home games, which is the cleanest tell on the BTTS lean here.
Brighton — W D W L W
- May 9, 2026: Brighton 3-0 Wolves (W, home)
- May 3, 2026: Newcastle 3-1 Brighton (L, away)
- Apr 26, 2026: Brighton 2-1 Crystal Palace (W, home)
- Apr 19, 2026: West Ham 0-0 Brighton (D, away)
- Apr 12, 2026: Brighton 2-0 Manchester United (W, home)
Brighton are on a seven-game scoring run in the league, with the last blank an Arsenal home defeat back on March 4. Three wins from the last five points to the visitors arriving in the right shape to finish off the Europa push.
Leeds vs Brighton Prediction
The price and the underlying numbers point the same way. Brighton are the better team in this matchup, scoring in every game, and unbeaten across the last four league meetings with Leeds. Welbeck’s profile is the cleanest individual edge on the board, and a 2-1 Brighton win at +1100 covers the cross-market read of Brighton win + Over 2.5 + BTTS in one ticket. The anchor pick: Brighton to win at +110 with bet365. For more weekend picks, see our soccer predictions hub or read the bet365 review.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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