The Merseyside derby comes to the Hill Dickinson Stadium for the first time on Sunday, April 19, with Everton hosting Liverpool at 9:00 AM ET.
Our Everton vs Liverpool prediction starts with the five-point gap in the table: Liverpool fifth on 52, Everton eighth on 47. That looks simple enough. It isn’t. Everton have taken 10 points from their last five league matches; Liverpool have taken seven. The hosts carry the momentum into this one.
bet365 still makes the visitors narrow favourites at +130, with Everton priced at +210 and the draw at +240. A tight derby on recent evidence, and fairly so.
Everton vs Liverpool: Best Bets & Predictions
Our preferred approach respects Liverpool’s historical edge in this fixture without dismissing Everton’s recent form. The goals markets offer the richest value; the player props sit in attractive price territory.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool to win | +130 @ bet365 (43.5%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Liverpool have won six of the last 10 Merseyside derbies, including two of three meetings across the past 12 months. |
| Both Teams To Score: Yes | -143 @ bet365 (58.8%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Everton have scored in four of their last five; Liverpool have scored in 10 of their last 11 league outings. |
| Over 2.5 goals | -111 @ bet365 (52.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Three of the last five meetings hit three or more; both sides come in from higher-scoring recent fixtures. |
| Mohamed Salah anytime scorer | +210 @ bet365 (32.3%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Six league goals and 10 big chances created in 20 starts; Liverpool’s most consistent goal threat against the hosts’ leakier right flank. |
| Iliman Ndiaye anytime scorer | +240 @ bet365 (29.4%) | ⭐⭐ | Everton’s top scorer on six goals with an xA of 4.01 as well; the most likely home source on a derby afternoon. |
Our approach: Build the core around Liverpool and BTTS Yes, with Salah anytime as the natural third leg. The Ndiaye price adds Everton goal insurance at a reasonable number.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability
Note for US readers: Polymarket is now live for real-money trading in the US following its 2025 acquisition of QCX, a CFTC-regulated exchange, available in most states except Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, Nevada and Ohio. New US users can claim a 100% deposit match up to $50 with code ACQUIRE05. Market prices shown are real-money figures from the Polymarket platform. Kalshi, also CFTC-regulated, trades in all 50 states.
Match-specific prediction market pricing for the Merseyside derby has not yet surfaced at time of writing, with traders on both Kalshi and Polymarket still weighted toward Saturday’s card. The sportsbook read is the cleaner tool for this fixture.
Season Form & Standings
Five points separate the two sides on the Premier League standings table, but the underlying profiles are more alike than the gap suggests. Liverpool’s +10 goal difference is the better number; Everton’s +2 is the lean side of balanced. The hosts are three wins from their last five. The visitors are two from their last five. Derby form, not league form, is what decides these.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 8 | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 39 | 37 | +2 | 47 |
| Liverpool | 5 | 32 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 52 | 42 | +10 | 52 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Mohamed Salah (Liverpool): Six goals and six assists from 20 starts, with 10 big chances created and an xG of 7.32; still the most likely man on the pitch to decide a derby.
- Florian Wirtz (Liverpool): Four goals, three assists and an xA of 5.51 since joining; 16 shots on target from 24 starts mark him out as the most dangerous playmaker the visitors have had at Anfield in years.
- Iliman Ndiaye (Everton): Everton’s top scorer on six league goals, 17 shots on target and an xA of 4.01; the creative and goal-scoring fulcrum at the Hill Dickinson Stadium.
- Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (Everton): Seven goals and three assists from 24 starts with an xG of 2.92; clinical finishing has been the summer signing’s signature and the hosts will lean on him in midfield.
Head-to-Head
Liverpool have the upper hand across the last decade of Merseyside derbies, winning six of the last 10 and losing only two. The reverse fixture at Anfield in September went to Liverpool 2-1, but Everton’s 2-0 home win in April 2024 is the most recent result at the blue side of the city.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2025 | Liverpool 2-1 Everton | Premier League |
| Apr 2, 2025 | Liverpool 1-0 Everton | Premier League |
| Feb 12, 2025 | Everton 2-2 Liverpool | Premier League |
| Apr 24, 2024 | Everton 2-0 Liverpool | Premier League |
| Oct 21, 2023 | Liverpool 2-0 Everton | Premier League |
Recent Form
Everton: W W L W D
- Apr 11: Brentford 2-2 Everton (D, away)
- Mar 21: Everton 3-0 Chelsea (W, home)
- Mar 14: Arsenal 2-0 Everton (L, away)
- Mar 3: Everton 2-0 Burnley (W, home)
- Feb 28: Newcastle 2-3 Everton (W, away)
Three wins from five and a brutal 3-0 over Chelsea is a side playing with confidence. The Brentford draw is the only blemish, and even that came from a lead. Everton arrive at this derby in their best form of the season.
Liverpool: W L D L W
- Apr 11: Liverpool 2-0 Fulham (W, home)
- Mar 21: Brighton 2-1 Liverpool (L, away)
- Mar 15: Liverpool 1-1 Tottenham (D, home)
- Mar 3: Wolves 2-1 Liverpool (L, away)
- Feb 28: Liverpool 5-2 West Ham (W, home)
Two wins, two defeats and a draw. Liverpool have looked sharp at Anfield and less convincing on the road, which is a pattern that has cost them in this fixture before.
Everton vs Liverpool Prediction
All in all, this is a derby you price close to even and lean gently toward the visitors. Liverpool’s quality across a 90-minute sample is higher, but Everton’s form and the new Hill Dickinson Stadium factor keep the margin thinner than the table implies. Liverpool +130 with bet365 is the core pick; BTTS Yes at -143 is the natural add-on. Kick-off is 9:00 AM ET, with Salah the most likely name on the scoresheet.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Must be 21+. GAMBLING PROBLEM? Call 1-800-GAMBLER