Bayern Munich need a 90-minute miracle at the Allianz Arena, and the team news has just made it harder.
They lost the first leg of this Champions League semi-final 5-4 in Paris last week, and now have to overturn a one-goal aggregate deficit against a PSG side flying in front of goal. Kick-off is Wednesday, May 6 at 3:00 PM ET.
The leg-1 scoreline tells you what to expect. Nine goals in Paris, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia at the heart of everything for the hosts, Harry Kane scoring twice for Bayern but not enough to keep parity. The two sides have already met four times this season including the Club World Cup, league phase and now both legs of this semi — and PSG have won three of those four meetings.
Bayern’s rebuild for the night is significant. Joshua Kimmich is suspended after picking up a yellow-card accumulation booking in Paris, Michael Olise joins him in the stand for the same reason, and Kim Min-Jae was sent off in leg 1 — three would-be starters out before injuries are even counted. Raphaël Guerreiro (hamstring) and Serge Gnabry (thigh) remain out as well. PSG arrive with Achraf Hakimi (thigh) still absent and goalkeeper Lucas Chevalier sidelined, with Russian No. 2 Matvey Safonov set to start in goal — a thinner team-news list than Bayern’s.
Whoever comes out on top will face Arsenal in the final on in Budapest on May 30.
Best Bets & Predictions: Bayern Munich vs PSG
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | -500 @ bet365 (83.3%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Nine goals in leg 1, four meetings this season averaged 3.3 goals. Bayern have to chase, both back lines are reshuffled. |
| Both Teams to Score: Yes | -400 @ bet365 (80.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Both teams scored in every prior 2025/26 meeting. Bayern’s reshuffled defence and a backup goalkeeper at the other end gives both attacks an opening. |
| Harry Kane to score anytime | -163 @ bet365 (62.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Thirteen UCL goals on an xG of 6.13 — already scored twice in leg 1 and lining up against Safonov rather than Chevalier. |
| Bayern Munich to win on the night | -150 @ bet365 (60.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Allianz factor and must-win urgency back the hosts even with Kimmich, Olise and Kim missing. Tie advancement is the harder ask. |
| Correct Score: 2-1 Bayern | +900 @ bet365 (10.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Wins the night for Bayern but PSG still go through on aggregate — fits the BTTS-Yes and Over 2.5 reads. |
| Jamal Musiala to score anytime | +110 @ bet365 (47.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | With Olise suspended, the German carries Bayern’s entire creative load against an unfamiliar PSG goalkeeper. |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to score anytime | +162 @ bet365 (38.2%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Ten UCL goals — and a Bayern back line missing Kim and Kimmich is exactly the matchup he wants. |
Our approach: Lead with Over 2.5 — almost a lock at this price. Add Kane anytime as the parlay companion. Take 2-1 Bayern as the value scoreline play, and Musiala anytime is the under-priced add now that Olise is suspended.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability
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The merged Kalshi and Polymarket read sides with Bayern on the night, but the picture flips when traders price the tie itself. Bayern carry the home and must-win edge — what the prediction-market favourite reflects — while PSG remain the clear book leaders to advance after their 5-4 first-leg lead. With Kimmich, Olise and Kim Min-Jae all suspended for the hosts, traders have not piled in any harder on a Bayern night out. The line broadly tracks bet365’s -150 on the Bayern result, with prediction markets and sportsbooks pointing the same way. The widget below pulls Kalshi and Polymarket pricing into one view and updates through kick-off.
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Champions League Run & Aggregate State
PSG lead 5-4 from a Parc des Princes leg-1 thriller. Doué scored twice for the hosts, Kvaratskhelia and Dembélé added one each, and Vitinha killed off Bayern’s late surge. Kane’s two-goal effort kept the tie alive going into Munich.
To advance, Bayern need to win by two clear goals on the night. A 1-0 win takes the tie to extra-time and penalties; a one-goal Bayern win in any higher scoreline (2-1, 3-2) still sees PSG through on aggregate. PSG can also seal the tie with any kind of away goal — at which point Bayern would need three to draw level.
Both sides have come through demanding routes. Bayern beat Real Madrid 6-4 on aggregate in the quarter-finals; PSG saw off Liverpool 4-0 across two legs. This is the season’s heavyweight semi.
Potential Match-Winners
- Harry Kane (Bayern Munich): Champions League leading scorer with 13 goals in 13 starts on an xG of 6.13 — converting at almost double the expected rate. Already two goals in leg 1.
- Jamal Musiala (Bayern Munich): With Olise suspended and Kimmich watching from the stands, the 23-year-old is the closest thing Bayern have to a creator-in-chief. Carries the right-side load against a PSG defence missing Hakimi.
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (PSG): Ten UCL goals and five assists in 14 outings — PSG’s tournament top-scorer and the leg-1 star turn.
- Ousmane Dembélé (PSG): Six goals on an xG of 4.22 in just 11 matches; six start-list inclusions out of 11 indicates rotation rather than form. Will start at the Allianz.
Head-to-Head
Bayern lead the all-time meeting count 7-3 from 10 head-to-head matches across competitions, but PSG have won three of the last four including last week’s leg 1, the Club World Cup final and the league-phase meeting in November.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2026 | PSG 5-4 Bayern Munich | UCL Semi-final Leg 1 |
| Nov 4, 2025 | PSG 1-2 Bayern Munich | UCL League Phase |
| Jul 5, 2025 | PSG 2-0 Bayern Munich | FIFA Club World Cup Final |
| Nov 26, 2024 | Bayern Munich 1-0 PSG | UCL League Phase |
| Mar 8, 2023 | Bayern Munich 2-0 PSG | UCL Round of 16 Leg 2 |
Recent Form
Bayern Munich — W W W L D
- April 11: W 5-0 at St. Pauli (Bundesliga)
- April 15: W 4-3 vs Real Madrid (UCL QF Leg 2)
- April 19: W 4-2 vs Stuttgart (Bundesliga)
- April 25: W 4-3 at Mainz (Bundesliga)
- April 28: L 4-5 at PSG (UCL SF Leg 1)
- May 2: D 3-3 vs Heidenheim (Bundesliga)
Goals everywhere — Bayern have scored four or more in their last six matches across competitions. The defensive numbers are not pretty (conceding regularly), and the Heidenheim draw on Saturday was a flat finish to a busy week.
PSG — W W L W W
- April 14: W 2-0 at Liverpool (UCL QF Leg 2)
- April 19: L 1-2 vs Lyon (Ligue 1)
- April 22: W 3-0 vs Nantes (Ligue 1)
- April 25: W 3-0 at Angers (Ligue 1)
- April 28: W 5-4 vs Bayern Munich (UCL SF Leg 1)
- May 2: D 2-2 vs Lorient (Ligue 1)
The Lyon defeat was a slip with the league already wrapped up, and the Lorient draw on Saturday was a B-team selection ahead of Wednesday. Otherwise dominant: 13 goals in five games either side of leg 1.
Aggregate State
PSG lead 5-4 on aggregate. Win-and-through scenarios for Bayern: any clean-sheet win takes them through; a 2+ goal win at any scoreline overturns the deficit. A one-goal Bayern win goes to extra-time and penalties. Any draw or PSG win sends the French side to Budapest.
The squad damage is the bigger story for Bayern. Kim Min-Jae picks up an automatic ban after his red card in Paris and Joshua Kimmich is out through yellow-card accumulation, with Olise suspended for the same reason. Aleksandar Pavlović is the obvious replacement in midfield; Upamecano slots back in alongside Tah at centre-back; and the right-wing slot opens up for Bischof, Karl or a redeployed Musiala. PSG, by contrast, have a single starter missing in Hakimi.
Bayern Munich vs PSG Prediction
Goals are the safe play. Both teams are scoring at will, both have defensive issues, and the leg-1 nine-goal thriller wasn’t an outlier — every meeting between these two over the past season has gone over 2.5. Bet365 have priced Over 2.5 short at -500, but it remains the play.
Kane anytime at -163 is the cleanest secondary. He has scored in 13 of 13 UCL starts this season at an extraordinary rate. Take the 2-1 Bayern correct score at +900 if you want a price — the night feels Bayern’s, but the tie still feels PSG’s. Full Champions League standings and the rest of our coverage live on the UCL hub; live pricing on the night is on bet365.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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