Necaxa vs Monterrey: Predictions, Picks, Odds & Stats

Necaxa host Monterrey at the Estadio Victoria on Sunday, July 26 (7:00 PM ET / 6:00 PM CT / 4:00 PM PT), with both sides chasing a second straight win to open the Apertura 2026.

Our Necaxa vs Monterrey prediction starts with two teams that both got off the mark on the opening weekend. Necaxa edged the newly promoted Atlante FC 2-1 at home, while Monterrey came through a 3-2 win over Santos Laguna. Neither kept a clean sheet, and that sets the tone for a game the market expects to have goals in it.

bet365 price Monterrey at +140 to win on the road, with Necaxa at +165 and the draw at +250. It is a tight line for an away favorite, which reflects both the visitors’ deeper squad and the fact that Necaxa were sharp in front of goal in week one.

Necaxa vs Monterrey: Best Bets & Predictions

Two openers full of goals point to another open game, with Monterrey’s greater quality just tilting a tight matchup their way.

Where are you following from? Odds & offers below update to match.

🇺🇸 United StatesTrade on Kalshi 🌎 Outside the USOdds via bet365

Monterrey to WinThe deeper, more expensive squad, with Sergio Canales pulling the strings and a front line that already put three past Santos. Favored on the road, though Necaxa keep it close.

42%win prob.+140 @ bet365

Over 2.5 GoalsTop pickBoth openers cleared the line comfortably — three goals at Necaxa, five in Monterrey’s win — and neither defense looked settled in week one.

60%chance-150 @ bet365

Both Teams to Score: YesEach side scored and conceded on opening night. Necaxa found the net through Julián Carranza, Monterrey carried a threat all over the field, and a goal apiece is the percentage read.

62%chance-175 @ bet365

Lucas Ocampos to score anytimeOff to a flyer with a brace in the opener and three shots on target, and priced as one of Monterrey’s likeliest scorers again here.

35%chance+187 @ bet365

Correct Score: Necaxa 1-2 MonterreyThe natural shape of a narrow away win, tying the result, the Over and both teams scoring into one line.

11%chance+850 @ bet365

Our approach: lead with Over 2.5 Goals, lean Monterrey to edge it, and treat Necaxa 1-2 Monterrey as the natural scoreline in a game where both teams should score.

Trade these markets on KalshiNew users get $10 — trade $10 to unlock. Prices update live.

Trade on Kalshi →

If Kalshi isn’t your choice, we also rate Polymarket and ProphetX — or compare the full lineup.

Compare All →

Probabilities reflect live Kalshi market prices at time of loading. 21+. Prediction markets are CFTC-regulated event contracts, not sportsbook bets. Polymarket excluded in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV, OH. Please play responsibly. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. New Kalshi users: USE CODE SQUAWKA.

Back these with bet365Odds shown for your region — toggle the odds beside each pick above.

Bet with bet365 →

Odds correct at time of writing and shown in American format for illustration; your local odds and offer are served on click. Eligibility, minimum age (18+/21+) and T&Cs vary by region. Please gamble responsibly.

Our approach here is to start with the Over, add Monterrey to nick the win, and treat Necaxa 1-2 Monterrey at +850 with bet365 as the scoreline that ties the read together.

Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.

Season Form & Standings

There is no meaningful Apertura table to read yet — one round in, both clubs sit level on three points. For context, the standings below show where each side finished last season in the Clausura 2026 Tabla General, when Monterrey (13th) and Necaxa (15th) both landed in the bottom third and missed the Liguilla. Read it as a snapshot of last season, not a live guide to this one.

Both won on the opening weekend, so form is a clean slate. Necaxa did it at home against a promoted side, while Monterrey’s 3-2 over Santos was the more eye-catching result on paper. You can track how the new season builds on the Liga MX standings page as the weeks roll on.

Potential Match-Winners

• Julián Carranza (Necaxa): The Argentine striker opened his account in the win over Atlante, taking two of his three shots on target and converting from the spot. He is the focal point of the Necaxa attack.
• Daniel Leyva (Necaxa): Created two clear chances from midfield in the opener and will be the man tasked with unlocking a well-drilled Monterrey block.
• Lucas Ocampos (Monterrey): Announced himself with a brace against Santos Laguna and three shots on target, comfortably the most productive attacker across either side in week one.
• Luca Orellano (Monterrey): Fired in four shots on target in the opener without scoring, so the underlying numbers suggest a goal is coming for the winger.

Recent Form

Necaxa: W

• July 16: Necaxa 2-1 Atlante FC (W, home)

One game, one win. Necaxa’s opener was a tight home victory over the promoted side, decided by a Carranza penalty, and they will fancy their chances of backing it up in front of their own fans at the Estadio Victoria.

Monterrey: W

• July 18: Monterrey 3-2 Santos Laguna (W, home)

Monterrey opened with a five-goal win, carried by an Ocampos double, but they also shipped two at the other end. The attacking talent is obvious; the defensive tidiness is not there yet.

Necaxa vs Monterrey Prediction

This has the makings of an open, back-and-forth game between two sides that both scored freely and conceded on the opening weekend. Monterrey carry more firepower and edge the market as slight favorites, so our lead call is goals: back Over 2.5 Goals with bet365, with Monterrey to shade it 2-1. Kick-off is 7:00 PM ET at the Estadio Victoria on Sunday, July 26, and you can line the full Apertura slate up on the Liga MX schedule, cross-check our other calls on the soccer predictions hub, or read the Pachuca vs Querétaro FC preview from the same matchday. New to the sportsbook? Our bet365 review runs through the sign-up.

Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.

Must be 21+. GAMBLING PROBLEM? Call 1-800-GAMBLER