Our USA vs Mexico prediction, best bets and odds for Saturday’s friendly at State Farm Stadium — the third game of Mauricio Pochettino’s four-match October window, and the one that actually matters.
Kick-off in Glendale, Arizona is 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, October 3. Full US broadcast details are below.
USA vs Mexico: Best Bets & Predictions
Form says the United States comfortably. The price says a coin flip. We will take the side of that disagreement.
Our approach: back the United States, but take the version of it that expects Mexico to score.
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Where to watch USA vs Mexico
USA vs Mexico kicks off at 10:00 PM ET / 9:00 PM CT / 7:00 PM PT on Saturday, October 3, at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. Arizona does not observe daylight saving, so that is 7:00 PM locally.
In the United States the game is on TNT and streams on HBO Max in English, with Spanish-language coverage on Telemundo, Universo and Peacock.
USA vs Mexico: what’s at stake?
Nothing is on the line and everyone involved knows it, which has never once stopped this fixture from being worth watching. What gives it an edge this time is how differently the two sides have arrived.
Pochettino has won both games of the window, beating Peru 4-1 in Orlando and Chile 4-2 in St. Louis, eight goals in six days from a squad he has openly been rotating. It is the most fluent the United States have looked since the World Cup, where they topped their group and went out to Belgium in the round of 16.
Mexico are three weeks into the Rafael Márquez era and have drawn both of his first two in charge, 1-1 with Colombia in Baltimore and 1-1 with Peru. Two goals in two games, no defeat either. A new coach taking stock is a reasonable reading; so is a side that has not yet worked out how it wants to attack.
Team news and talking points
Both coaches have been explicit that this window is about looking at players, and both have rotated heavily already — Pochettino across four games in 11 days, Márquez across his first three. Expect changes again here, and expect them to matter less than usual to the result. Glendale will be loud and the split in the stands will be nothing like a normal United States home game; State Farm Stadium has long been one of the venues where Mexico travel best. Pochettino closes the window against Canada on Tuesday, and the rest of it is in our international coverage.
USA vs Mexico prediction
Mexico are the better name and, right now, the lesser team. Márquez has not had long enough to impose much and his forwards have managed two goals in two games against opposition the United States put eight past. Pochettino’s side are rotating and still scoring, and they get to do it in front of a crowd that will at least be partly theirs. Both will score, because neither defence has convinced. Prediction: USA 2-1.
USA vs Mexico FAQ
USA vs Mexico kicks off at 10:00 PM ET / 9:00 PM CT / 7:00 PM PT on Saturday, October 3.
The game is on TNT and HBO Max in English, and on Telemundo, Universo and Peacock in Spanish.
USA vs Mexico is being played at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
Our prediction is USA 2-1. Our top pick is USA to win at +148.
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