Guatemala host Canada in the first leg of their Concacaf Nations League quarter-final on Friday, November 13 at 9:00 PM ET / 8:00 PM CT / 6:00 PM PT at the Estadio El Trébol in Guatemala City, with the return at Toronto’s BMO Field on November 17.
Our Guatemala vs Canada prediction favors the visitors, who carry the stronger squad and reached the round of 16 at the World Cup. But this is a genuine test: Canada warmed up with autumn wins over Chile and Peru before a narrow loss to the USA, while Guatemala are match-sharp from a Nations League group and formidable at home, where they put six past El Salvador. The market still leans Canada, and so do we — but a hostile El Trébol makes the first leg awkward. The game is free to watch on the official Concacaf YouTube channel.
Guatemala vs Canada: Best Bets & Predictions
Canada have the quality edge, but a sharp Guatemala at altitude in Guatemala City make the first leg a real test.
Our approach: back Canada to edge the first leg, with goals at both ends and a David strike — a 2-1 to the visitors.
Probabilities reflect live Kalshi market prices at time of loading. 21+. Prediction markets are CFTC-regulated event contracts, not sportsbook bets. Polymarket excluded in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV, OH. Please play responsibly. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. New Kalshi users: USE CODE SQUAWKA.
Odds correct at time of writing and shown in American format for illustration; your local odds and offer are served on click. Eligibility, minimum age (18+/21+) and T&Cs vary by region. Please gamble responsibly.
Form & What’s at Stake
This is a two-legged quarter-final decided on aggregate, with the winner advancing to the 2027 Concacaf Nations League Finals in March and securing a 2027 Gold Cup place. Guatemala reached the last eight through the Nations League group stage; Canada entered at the quarter-final round. The contrast is sharpness versus pedigree: Canada have the bigger names after a World Cup round-of-16 run and warmed up with autumn wins over Chile and Peru before a 1-0 loss to the United States, while Guatemala are in rhythm and have been excellent at home, highlighted by a 6-0 rout of El Salvador.
Guatemala vs Canada Predicted Lineups
Guatemala (predicted, from their last match): Hagen; Herrera, Yanes, Samayoa, Morales Concuá; Fajardo, Franco, Rosales, López Amenábar; Lom, Méndez. Guatemala have leaned on a settled group and the dangerous Óscar Santis and Olger Escobar off the bench.
Canada (predicted first-choice XI): Crépeau; Johnston, Cornelius, de Fougerolles, Laryea; Eustáquio, Koné, Saliba; Buchanan, David, Oluwaseyi. Alphonso Davies, limited to a cameo at the World Cup, pushes for a return; we’ll update the XI once Canada confirm their team.
Potential Match-Winners
- Jonathan David (Canada): Canada’s talisman led the line at the World Cup with three goals and eight shots on target in five games, and is the most likely man to settle the tie.
- Stephen Eustáquio (Canada): The midfield conductor chipped in a goal and created three big chances at the tournament, pulling Canada’s strings from deep.
- William Fajardo (Guatemala): Guatemala’s top scorer in the group with three goals, the midfielder arrives in form and will carry their attacking threat.
- Óscar Santis (Guatemala): Ruthless in limited minutes — two goals and a team-high three big chances created — he is Guatemala’s sharpest spark in the final third.
Recent Form
Guatemala: L W D W
- Oct 6: Guatemala 1-0 Suriname (W)
- Oct 2: Suriname 0-0 Guatemala (D)
- Sep 29: Guatemala 6-0 El Salvador (W)
- Sep 26: Jamaica 3-2 Guatemala (L)
Guatemala took strong form into the knockouts, unbeaten in three and devastating at home — the 6-0 against El Salvador was a statement. The only blemish was a narrow loss at Jamaica, and they will fancy their chances of taking a result into the second leg in Toronto.
Canada: L W W
- Oct 7: USA 1-0 Canada (L)
- Oct 3: Canada 2-0 Peru (W)
- Sep 27: Canada 1-0 Chile (W)
Canada came through the autumn window in good shape, beating Chile and Peru to nil at home before a narrow 1-0 loss to the United States in Minnesota — two clean sheets in three, and a sharper, more recent read than their summer World Cup run (a round-of-16 exit to Morocco). They arrive match-ready rather than rusty, even if the USA defeat was a reminder of the margins against top opposition.
Guatemala vs Canada Prediction
Canada have the stronger squad and, over two legs, should have enough — the market agrees. But Guatemala at home are dangerous and have the sharper edge in front of their own crowd, so expect a tighter first leg than the names suggest. We’ll take a narrow Canada win with goals at both ends: back Canada to win on Kalshi, with Jonathan David to score. Kick-off is 9:00 PM ET at the Estadio El Trébol.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Must be 21+. GAMBLING PROBLEM? Call 1-800-GAMBLER