Haiti face the United States in the first leg of their Concacaf Nations League quarter-final on Saturday, November 14 at 4:30 PM ET / 3:30 PM CT / 1:30 PM PT, with Haiti’s home leg moved to Inter Miami’s Nu Stadium over security concerns at home — giving Mauricio Pochettino’s side the feel of a home game.
Our Haiti vs USA prediction leans heavily toward the Americans, three-time winners chasing a fourth Nations League crown, who enter at the quarter-final stage — their first match in the competition this cycle — and bring a World Cup squad into a two-legged tie against a Haiti side that will fancy its chances of keeping the tie alive before the return in Cincinnati on November 18. Expect Pochettino to lean on his established core — Christian Pulisic and Folarin Balogun are both in the November group — though a handful of uncapped call-ups mean the XI will only be settled closer to kickoff. Haiti, for their part, must find a way to contain a US front line that has scored 12 goals across four straight autumn wins. In the US, the game is on TBS, TruTV and HBO Max in English, with Universo and Peacock carrying Spanish-language coverage.
Haiti vs USA: Best Bets & Predictions
USA have the talent and the Miami crowd to take a firm grip on the tie in the first leg.
Our approach: back USA to win the first leg and build it out with a Balogun goal and unders on the total, with a modest 2-0 as the lead scoreline.
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Form & What’s at Stake
This is a two-legged quarter-final decided on aggregate, and the stakes are real: the winner advances to the 2027 Concacaf Nations League Finals in March and books a place at the 2027 Gold Cup. USA come in as three-time champions and heavy favorites, but without a competitive game since the summer. Haiti reached the last eight by finishing second in their qualifying group — edging the Dominican Republic on goal difference — and arrive fresh off their second-ever World Cup. Several of their key men will be familiar to US fans, with Philadelphia’s Danley Jean-Jacques and Atlanta’s Fafà Picault in the squad.
The contrast in context matters. USA’s most recent run was at the World Cup, where they reached the round of 16 before a 4-1 defeat to Belgium ended their tournament. Haiti, by comparison, are mid-cycle and sharp, with Wilson Isidor scoring in each of their last few outings. On paper this is a mismatch; in practice, rust versus rhythm is the subplot worth watching early in the first leg.
Haiti vs USA Predicted Lineups
USA (predicted first-choice XI): Freese; Freeman, Richards, Ream, Robinson; Adams, McKennie, Tillman; Dest, Balogun, Pulisic. Pochettino rotated heavily through the autumn friendlies and has named several uncapped players in the November squad, so the exact XI is hard to call — but a competitive quarter-final should see him lean back toward this senior core. We’ll update it once he confirms his team.
Haiti (from their last match): Duverger; Arcus, Delcroix, Duverne, Lacroix; Sainté, Jean-Jacques; Deedson, Providence, Picault; Isidor. Haiti kept their shape through the group stage and will likely sit deep and play on the counter through Isidor and Providence.
Potential Match-Winners
- Folarin Balogun (USA): Led the line at the World Cup with three goals in five games and five shots on target, and is the clearest route to a US opener if he keeps his place.
- Malik Tillman (USA): Produced two goals, an assist and two big chances created over the summer, operating as the side’s most dangerous link between midfield and attack.
- Wilson Isidor (Haiti): Haiti’s standout of the group stage with three goals and two assists in four matches, the striker is their best hope of carrying a threat to the return leg.
- Ruben Providence (Haiti): Created a team-high three big chances in the group, and Haiti’s counterattacks will run through his link play on the break.
Recent Form
USA: W W W W
- Oct 7: USA 1-0 Canada (W)
- Oct 4: USA 3-0 Mexico (W)
- Sep 30: USA 4-2 Chile (W)
- Sep 26: USA 4-1 Peru (W)
USA come in on a four-match winning run from their autumn friendlies, scoring 12 and conceding three, with the 3-0 against Mexico the standout. The caveat is the setting: those were friendlies, often with a rotated and youthful squad, and this is their first competitive match since a World Cup round-of-16 exit to Belgium. How that experimental edge holds up under knockout pressure is the question.
Haiti: W W W L
- Oct 4: Costa Rica 2-0 Haiti (L)
- Oct 1: Dominican Republic 1-4 Haiti (W)
- Sep 27: Haiti 2-0 Costa Rica (W)
- Sep 24: Haiti 3-2 Trinidad and Tobago (W)
Haiti scored at least twice in each of their three group-stage wins, with the 4-1 at the Dominican Republic the standout. The 2-0 loss at Costa Rica is the warning sign — against organized, higher-ranked opposition the goals dried up, which is the exact profile of challenge they face here.
Haiti vs USA Prediction
USA have too much quality across the pitch, and a de facto home game in Miami should let them settle the rust quickly and take a lead to Cincinnati. Haiti will be organized and carry a threat through Isidor, but keeping USA out across 180 minutes is a tall order. The lean is a controlled first-leg win: back the USA to win on Kalshi, with Balogun to open the scoring. Kick-off is 4:30 PM ET at Inter Miami’s Nu Stadium.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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