The Premier League relegation odds 2025-26 now sit on a single Sunday afternoon. Wolves and Burnley are mathematically down.
The third drop spot runs between Tottenham (17th, 38 points) and West Ham (18th, 36 points) on the final day, May 24. The maths is clean: a point for Tottenham would secure Premier League survival unless West Ham manages to overturn Spurs’s superior goal difference. West Ham need to beat Leeds at the London Stadium AND Tottenham need to lose at home to Everton. That delivers West Ham 39 points to Spurs’s 38 and drops Spurs into the bottom three. Anything other than that combination and West Ham go down. A win for Spurs guarantees their Premier League status regardless of what goes on at the London Stadium.
Chelsea’s 2-1 win over Tottenham at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday May 19 kept the relegation question alive into the closing weekend. Spurs lost a fixture they could have closed the survival maths with; West Ham, beaten 3-1 at Newcastle the Sunday before, get one last home game to make it count. Both clubs are at home on Sunday May 24. Both kick off at 16:00 BST (11:00 ET), simultaneously with the other eight Premier League fixtures.
Premier League relegation odds 2025-26
The odds below are sourced from US sportsbooks and are subject to change as the final-day card approaches.
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Current Premier League standings: the relegation zone
After Tuesday night’s catch-up games, the bottom of the Premier League table heading into the final day:
| Pos | Team | Played | Points | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Leeds United | 37 | 47 | -4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 37 | 45 | -9 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 37 | 43 | -3 |
| 17 | Tottenham | 37 | 38 | -10 |
| 18 | West Ham United | 37 | 36 | -22 |
| 19 | Burnley | 37 | 21 | -37 |
| 20 | Wolves | 37 | 19 | -41 |
Leeds (14th, 47 points) confirmed safety with a 1-0 home win over Brighton on Sunday May 17. Crystal Palace are safe on 45 points. Nottingham Forest sit 16th on 43; West Ham’s maximum of 39 cannot reach them. The third relegation spot runs between the two clubs immediately below the safety line.
The final day scenario
One result keeps West Ham up: a Spurs defeat at home to Everton AND a West Ham win at home to Leeds. That sequence leaves West Ham on 39 points and Tottenham on 38, and Spurs drop into the bottom three. Any other combination keeps West Ham down. A Spurs draw or win locks safety on points alone, and a West Ham draw or loss closes the survival route regardless of what Tottenham do.
Both fixtures kick off simultaneously at 16:00 BST on Sunday May 24. There is no in-game cushion of seeing one result before the other — the two stadiums settle the question in parallel.
Who are the favorites to be relegated?
Wolves (20th, 19 points, relegated)
Wolves are mathematically relegated. Their season has been defined by a lack of goals: 26 scored across 37 league games, the fewest in the division by a wide margin. The defence has shipped 67. A 1-1 draw at Fulham on May 17 added a point of pride; the closing-day fixture is at relegated rivals Burnley on May 24.
Burnley (19th, 21 points, relegated)
Burnley’s return to the Premier League has ended in relegation. A 1-0 defeat at Arsenal on May 18 leaves them on 21 points from 37 games with a goal difference of -37 and only the closing-day home fixture against Wolves on May 24 to play, a game of pride between two already-relegated sides.
West Ham United (18th, 36 points)
West Ham close the season at home to Leeds at the London Stadium with their fate half in their own hands. A win there is the prerequisite; the other half is a Tottenham defeat at home to Everton. If both land, West Ham finish on 39 points, Spurs stay on 38, and the Hammers escape. If Spurs take any kind of result against Everton, West Ham go down. If the Hammers fail to beat Leeds, they go down regardless of the Tottenham scoreline.
The remaining schedule:
West Ham’s remaining fixtures
| Date | Fixture | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| Sun May 24 | vs Leeds United | Home (London Stadium) |
Leeds, safe on 47 points, have nothing to play for. That makes the home half of the equation the more controllable one for West Ham. The harder part is what happens five miles north at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium at exactly the same time.
The Hammers have been priced in the relegation conversation since October — our piece on how West Ham ended up here walks through the eight-month journey.
Tottenham (17th, 38 points)
Tottenham’s 2-1 defeat at Chelsea on May 19 kept them at 38 points and left the survival maths open. Any result against Everton on the final day — a win or a draw — seals safety on points alone, regardless of what West Ham do. A defeat reopens the door for the Hammers but only if West Ham win their own game.
Spurs’ late-season swing from a 56% relegation shot in April to 15% today is the closest call in their Premier League history — we’ve broken down the scenario that decides it.
Tottenham’s remaining fixtures
| Date | Fixture | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| Sun May 24 | vs Everton | Home (Tottenham Hotspur Stadium) |
Everton are 12th on 49 points with nothing left to play for beyond pride. Spurs lost to Chelsea in their last fixture and have not been at their best in front of a home crowd this season — nine league wins from 18 home games is below par for a side that started the campaign in the European chase. The closing fixture is winnable, but it is winnable in the same way Tuesday at Stamford Bridge was always winnable.
Nottingham Forest (16th, 43 points)
Forest are safe on 43 points from 37 games. A 3-2 defeat at Manchester United on May 17 did not threaten their position; West Ham’s maximum of 39 cannot reach them. The closing-day fixture at home to Bournemouth on May 24 is played without relegation pressure, though Bournemouth carry their own stakes around sixth place.
Forest’s remaining fixtures
| Date | Fixture | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| Sun May 24 | vs Bournemouth | Home (The City Ground) |
Leeds United (14th, 47) and Crystal Palace (15th, 45)
Both are safely clear of any drop scenario. Leeds confirmed survival with a 1-0 win over Brighton; Crystal Palace held a 2-2 draw at Brentford. Both face closing-day fixtures with no relegation consequences: Leeds travel to West Ham, Crystal Palace host Arsenal, a Gunners side closing out their title-winning season.
Which teams are moving into and out of danger?
In the drop zone: West Ham. Down to one game on 36 points, needing to beat Leeds at home AND have Tottenham lose at home to Everton at the same time. Anything short of both events and the Hammers are relegated.
Closer to safety: Tottenham. Two points clear with one game left, controlling their own survival. A point or three at home to Everton confirms safety. A defeat reopens the door, but only if West Ham also win their own fixture.
Safe: Leeds United (47), Crystal Palace (45), and Nottingham Forest (43) are all mathematically clear of the drop. West Ham’s maximum of 39 cannot reach any of them.
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Key terms for the relegation market
- Relegation market: Futures odds on which three teams will finish in the bottom three positions and drop to the Championship.
- The drop: A common term for being relegated to the lower division.
- Simultaneous kickoff: The Premier League’s final day is played with all ten fixtures kicking off at the same time — 16:00 BST (11:00 ET) on May 24 — specifically so that no side has the advantage of knowing earlier results. West Ham and Tottenham both play at home, five miles apart.
- Points swing: West Ham’s only survival path is a three-point swing on Tottenham — a Hammers win combined with a Spurs defeat. With one game left for each side and Tottenham two points clear, that is the maths.
- Safety: Leeds, Palace, and Forest are safe on 47, 45 and 43 points. West Ham’s maximum of 39 cannot reach any of them. For Tottenham, a single point at home to Everton seals it.
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