Brighton host Manchester United at the Amex Stadium on Sunday, May 24 (11:00 AM ET / 10:00 AM CT / 8:00 AM PT) on the Premier League’s final day, with Brighton fighting for a Conference League spot and Manchester United already confirmed in third.
Our Brighton vs Manchester United prediction starts with the points picture: Brighton, seventh-placed with 53 points, host Manchester United, third-placed with 68. Manchester United have wrapped up Champions League qualification, while Brighton remain in the four-way Conference League shootout for the seventh-place berth and could climb above Bournemouth (56) and into the Europa spot with a win paired with the right results above.
bet365 prices Brighton at -111 to win, with Manchester United at +270 and the draw at +290. The home side is the favorite for a reason — Brighton have won nine of 18 league games at the Amex this season, and Manchester United arrive missing Benjamin Sesko to a long-term issue and without Matthijs de Ligt or Manuel Ugarte.
Brighton vs Manchester United: Best Bets & Predictions
The home side is favored on form and stakes, and the markets give the away side a real route to a contribution.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton to Win | -111 @ bet365 (53%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Brighton have the home record (9-6-3) and the Conference-spot motivation. Manchester United’s recent road form has been steady, but the home favorite price still has value here. |
| Correct Score: 2-1 Brighton | +850 @ bet365 (11%) | ⭐⭐ | Brighton have BTTS in 11 of 18 home games and Manchester United have BTTS in 14 of 18 trips. A 2-1 home win mirrors the shape of the seasons’ recent meetings, including Brighton’s 3-1 at Old Trafford in January. |
| Danny Welbeck Anytime Goalscorer | +110 @ bet365 (48%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Thirteen league goals from 2,204 minutes — the veteran striker has been Brighton’s leading scorer this season and is a near-coin-flip to find the net at the Amex. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | -200 @ bet365 (67%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Manchester United away games have averaged Over 2.5 in 14 of 18 trips. The recent H2H series has produced 3.4 goals per game on average. |
| Both Teams to Score: Yes | -225 @ bet365 (69%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | BTTS landed in 11 of 18 Brighton home games and 14 of 18 Manchester United trips. Both sides have scored in each of the last four H2H meetings. |
Our approach: Start with Brighton to Win at -111, layer Welbeck anytime as the player-prop value, and add Over 2.5 as the over-friendly leg. Our soccer predictions hub tracks the live picks for the rest of the day’s card.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability
The live prediction-market story tied to this fixture is Brighton’s Conference qualification run. Polymarket and Kalshi price Brighton among the favorites for the seventh-placed Conference berth, with Brentford, Chelsea and Sunderland all in range.
For this individual fixture, match-specific prediction market pricing for Brighton & Hove Albion vs Manchester United has not yet surfaced at time of writing. The sportsbook read is the cleaner tool for the 90-minute call. We’ll update here if and when Kalshi or Polymarket list the fixture.
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Season Form & Standings
Brighton are in the live Conference qualification race and Manchester United have third place locked. The 2025-26 Premier League Europa qualification odds page tracks the live market above Brighton, the 2025-26 Premier League top-four odds page covers the secured top-five berths, and our Crystal Palace vs Arsenal preview covers the champions’ parade trip.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 3 | 37 | 19 | 11 | 7 | 66 | 50 | +16 | 68 |
| Brighton | 7 | 37 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 52 | 43 | +9 | 53 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Danny Welbeck (Brighton): 13 league goals and one assist this season — the former United striker is Brighton’s leading scorer and the most reliable home anytime threat on the card.
- Diego Gomez (Brighton): Five goals and one assist this season — the Paraguayan midfielder has been a steady supporting goal threat and is the kind of player who arrives late into the box.
- Bryan Mbeumo (Manchester United): 10 goals and three assists this season — the summer signing has been a key contributor to Manchester United’s improved season and a real threat on the counter.
- Matheus Cunha (Manchester United): 10 goals and two assists this season — the Brazilian has been the steady scoring partner to Mbeumo and a likely starter on the road.
Head-to-Head
Manchester United won the reverse 4-2 at Old Trafford in October but Brighton have taken three of the last five Premier League meetings between the clubs, including a 3-1 at Old Trafford in January of the previous season.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | Manchester United 4-2 Brighton | Premier League |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Manchester United 1-3 Brighton | Premier League |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Brighton 2-1 Manchester United | Premier League |
| May 19, 2024 | Brighton 0-2 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2023 | Manchester United 1-3 Brighton | Premier League |
Recent Form
Brighton: D W L W L (oldest left → most recent right)
- May 17, 2026: Leeds 1-0 Brighton (L, away)
- May 9, 2026: Brighton 3-0 Wolves (W, home)
- May 2, 2026: Newcastle 3-1 Brighton (L, away)
- Apr 21, 2026: Brighton 3-0 Chelsea (W, home)
- Apr 18, 2026: Tottenham 2-2 Brighton (D, away)
Two home wins by a combined 6-0 are the more relevant data points than the away results — Brighton at the Amex is the side that should turn up. Fabian Hürzeler will be without Mitoma and Wieffer for the trip.
Manchester United: W W W D W
- May 17, 2026: Manchester United 3-2 Nottingham Forest (W, home)
- May 9, 2026: Sunderland 0-0 Manchester United (D, away)
- May 3, 2026: Manchester United 3-2 Liverpool (W, home)
- Apr 27, 2026: Manchester United 2-1 Brentford (W, home)
- Apr 18, 2026: Chelsea 0-1 Manchester United (W, away)
Four wins from the last five — Manchester United arrive in form, with the only blank a 0-0 at Sunderland. Ruben Amorim will be without Benjamin Sesko for the run-in, missing Matthijs de Ligt to a long-term issue, and managing Manuel Ugarte’s absence in midfield, but the front line of Mbeumo and Cunha is fit.
Brighton vs Manchester United Prediction
This is a final-day fixture where the home side has the ground, the stake and the Welbeck factor, while the away side has the form and a top-three berth already secured. Brighton to Win at -111 with bet365 is the right call given the Amex record and the Conference-qualification motivation, with the Welbeck anytime line as the value lean. Kick-off is 11:00 AM ET at the Amex Stadium.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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