Nashville SC host NYCFC at Geodis Park on Saturday, May 23, at 8:30 PM ET / 7:30 PM CT / 5:30 PM PT, with the Supporters’ Shield race and the East playoff bubble both on the line before the World Cup pause.
Our Nashville SC vs NYCFC prediction starts with table position. The Boys in Gold sit top of MLS on 30 points, a single point clear of Vancouver and San Jose Earthquakes, and have lost only once in 13. NYCFC arrive on 19 points and inside the East playoff cut, looking for one more result before the break to keep the bubble from popping.
Bet365 prices Nashville SC at -145 to win, with the draw at +270 and NYCFC at +333. The market is reading a tight, controlled home win — backed up by NYCFC keeping clean sheets in two of their last three and Nashville scoring in each of their last seven.
Nashville SC vs New York City: Best Bets & Predictions
This is a short-priced home favorite priced like a defensive grind, but the underlying form points to goals — and one Nashville name in particular.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC to Win | -140 @ bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | One defeat in 13, nine wins, and a +19 goal difference at the top of the league. |
| Both Teams to Score: Yes | -134 @ bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | NYCFC have scored in each of their last three; Nashville’s last home outing finished 3-2 with LAFC. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | -125 @ bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Nashville’s home matches have averaged 3.5 goals per match this season. |
| Correct Score: Nashville SC 2-1 | +750 @ bet365 | ⭐⭐ | Matches the projected favorite, the BTTS read, and an over-2.5 line in one ticket. |
| Sam Surridge to Score Anytime | -138 @ bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Nine goals in seven appearances and 15 shots on target — one of the league’s hottest finishers right now. |
Our approach: Anchor with Nashville SC to win, layer in BTTS Yes for the parlay, and treat Surridge anytime as the player-prop add once bet365 prices it up.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability
Match-specific prediction market pricing for Nashville SC vs New York City has not yet surfaced at the time of writing. The sportsbook read is the cleaner tool for this match — bet365’s -145 on the home win is the directional anchor. We’ll update here if and when Kalshi or Polymarket list the fixture.
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Season Form & Standings
Nashville SC are top of the Eastern Conference and top of the overall MLS standings, one point clear in the Supporters’ Shield race. NYCFC sit on 19 points, two points clear of FC Cincinnati in the final East playoff spot.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 1 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 29 | 10 | +19 | 30 |
| NYCFC | 5 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 19 | +5 | 19 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Sam Surridge (Nashville SC): Nine goals in seven appearances, 15 shots on target, and the league’s standout finisher heading into the break.
- Hany Mukhtar (Nashville SC): Six goals and four assists across 13 outings, with 15 shots on target — the engine for the Boys in Gold from midfield.
- Nicolás Fernández (NYCFC): Nine goals and three assists in 14 matches, 22 shots on target — far and away NYCFC’s most productive attacker this season.
- Maxi Moralez (NYCFC): One goal and six assists in 14 outings — the creative pivot threading the chances NYCFC need to convert on the road.
Head-to-Head
Eight meetings since 2021, split three wins apiece with two draws — and every result bar one (2-2, May 2025) has gone the way of the home team since the goalless one in October 2021. NYCFC won the last meeting 2-1 at Yankee Stadium in August 2025.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2025 | NYCFC 2-1 Nashville SC | MLS |
| May 31, 2025 | Nashville SC 2-2 NYCFC | MLS |
| Oct 6, 2024 | NYCFC 3-1 Nashville SC | MLS |
| Jun 22, 2024 | Nashville SC 1-0 NYCFC | MLS |
| Apr 15, 2023 | NYCFC 2-1 Nashville SC | MLS |
Recent Form
Nashville SC: W W D D W
- May 17, 2026: Nashville SC 3-2 LAFC (W, home)
- May 13, 2026: New England 0-3 Nashville SC (W, away)
- May 9, 2026: Nashville SC 2-2 DC United (D, home)
- May 2, 2026: Philadelphia Union 0-0 Nashville SC (D, away)
- Apr 25, 2026: Nashville SC 4-2 Charlotte FC (W, home)
Nashville SC are unbeaten in seven, the last defeat a 0-1 loss at Chicago Fire FC on April 4. The Coyotes have been formidable both at home and on the road.
NYCFC: D L L W W
- May 16, 2026: NY Red Bulls 1-1 NYCFC (D, away)
- May 13, 2026: Charlotte FC 0-1 NYCFC (W, away)
- May 10, 2026: NYCFC 3-0 Columbus Crew (W, home)
- May 3, 2026: NYCFC 0-2 DC United (L, home)
- Apr 25, 2026: CF Montreal 1-0 NYCFC (L, away)
NYCFC arrive on a three-game unbeaten run, most recently coming from behind to draw 1-1 away in the Hudson River derby.
Nashville SC vs New York City Prediction
Nashville SC are the league’s form team and the cleanest read on the board: nine wins from 13, one defeat all season, and a striker in Surridge who has scored nine in seven. NYCFC are organized and on a roll, but the gap in points and goal difference is real. We’ll back Nashville SC to win at -145 with bet365 and add BTTS Yes for the parlay, with Surridge anytime the moment the market opens. For more in this matchday, see our MLS hub and the latest from our soccer predictions page.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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