San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Dallas prediction
San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Dallas closes the West Coast late slot at PayPal Park on Saturday, May 16, at 10:30 PM ET, with both sides looking to clean up midweek defeats and steady the ship before the playoff cut-off tightens.
Our San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Dallas prediction starts with two teams limping into this one. The Quakes are second in the Western Conference on 29 points but coughed up a 3-2 loss at Seattle on Wednesday. FC Dallas, seventh on 19 points, fell 3-2 at home to Vancouver in midweek and need to start banking road points before the chasing pack catches up.
The headline difference is the league position rather than the form arrow. San Jose’s playoff place is intact; FC Dallas have to start manufacturing results to avoid falling out of contention. Bet365 will price the Quakes as home favorites once lines open.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Dallas: Best Bets & Predictions
The angle here leans on the Quakes’ attack and the goals pattern across both sides — San Jose have scored in nine straight, and FC Dallas have conceded in their last two.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes to Win | Lines opening soon @ bet365 (—) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | The Quakes are 2nd in the West on 29 points with nine wins from 13, and FC Dallas have lost three of their last five. |
| Both Teams to Score: Yes | Lines opening soon @ bet365 (—) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Both teams scored in 7 of San Jose’s last 9 and in 6 of FC Dallas’s last 9, and the visitors have conceded in their last two on the bounce. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | Lines opening soon @ bet365 (—) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Six of San Jose’s last 9 have gone over 2.5, FC Dallas have cleared the line in 6 of their last 9, and the last two head-to-heads have both produced four goals or more. |
| Preston Judd Anytime Goalscorer | Lines opening soon @ bet365 (—) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Judd is on nine goals in 13 league games with 22 shots on target — the leading striker output in either squad. |
| Correct Score: 2-1 | Lines opening soon @ bet365 (—) | ⭐⭐ | San Jose’s home wins this season have come on tight scorelines, and Petar Musa keeps FC Dallas relevant for at least one goal in most road games. |
Our approach: anchor the slip with San Jose to win, layer in Both Teams to Score for parlay value, and take Judd at anytime scorer to lengthen the price.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability
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Match-specific prediction market pricing for San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Dallas has not yet surfaced at the time of writing. The sportsbook read is the cleaner tool for this match. We’ll update here if and when Kalshi or Polymarket list the fixture.
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Season Form & Standings
San Jose hold second in the Western Conference on 29 points with a +18 goal difference, while FC Dallas are seventh on 19 — inside the playoff places but with very little margin if the chasing pack tightens up.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes | 2 | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 11 | +18 | 29 |
| FC Dallas | 7 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 19 | +6 | 19 |
The home side’s numbers stand out — 29 goals scored in 13 games, only 11 conceded — and that profile sits at the top of the Supporters’ Shield conversation. FC Dallas have scored a healthy 25 themselves, so the attacking talent isn’t the issue; the back four is.
Potential Match-Winners
- Preston Judd (San Jose Earthquakes): The Quakes’ lead striker is on nine goals and two assists in 13 league games with 22 shots on target — the most prolific forward output in the home squad and the anchor of the attack.
- Ousseni Bouda (San Jose Earthquakes): Five goals and an assist in 13 from the front line, with 10 shots on target and 13 chances created. Bouda is the dribble threat alongside Judd and gets onto the end of cutbacks in the box.
- Petar Musa (FC Dallas): 11 goals in 12 league games with 21 shots on target — the standout output among regular starters. If FC Dallas score on the road, it almost always runs through him.
- Logan Farrington (FC Dallas): Five goals and two assists in 12 games, with nine shots on target. The second forward keeps Musa company and gives FC Dallas a transition outlet when the visitors break.
Head-to-Head
The two sides have split the recent record evenly — two wins each and a heavy six draws across the last 10 meetings. San Jose edged the two most recent results, and the home leg in October 2024 ended 3-2 to the Quakes.
The overall series in all comps favors San Jose 13-7, but the draw has been the most common result at 16.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2025 | San Jose Earthquakes 2-2 FC Dallas | MLS |
| Jun 25, 2025 | FC Dallas 2-4 San Jose Earthquakes | MLS |
| Oct 2, 2024 | San Jose Earthquakes 3-2 FC Dallas | MLS |
| Feb 24, 2024 | FC Dallas 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes | MLS |
| Oct 7, 2023 | FC Dallas 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes | MLS |
Recent Form
San Jose Earthquakes: W W D D L (oldest left to most recent right)
- May 13, 2026: Seattle Sounders 3-2 San Jose Earthquakes (L, away)
- May 9, 2026: San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 Vancouver Whitecaps (D, home)
- May 2, 2026: Toronto 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes (D, away)
- Apr 25, 2026: St. Louis 2-3 San Jose Earthquakes (W, away)
- Apr 22, 2026: San Jose Earthquakes 5-1 Austin (W, home)
San Jose are winless in three, the last win a 3-2 result at St. Louis on April 25. The Quakes are on a nine-match scoring run — a striking streak — but the back four has leaked across seven straight, so the goals supply is doing the heavy lifting.
FC Dallas: L W W L L
- May 13, 2026: FC Dallas 2-3 Vancouver Whitecaps (L, home)
- May 9, 2026: FC Dallas 3-1 Real Salt Lake (W, home)
- May 2, 2026: New York Red Bulls 0-2 FC Dallas (W, away)
- Apr 25, 2026: Seattle Sounders 2-1 FC Dallas (L, away)
- Apr 22, 2026: FC Dallas 0-1 Minnesota United (L, home)
FC Dallas are on a four-match scoring run, the previous goalless outing at home to Minnesota United on April 22. The visitors have lost three of their last five and have conceded in their last two — the road profile is patchy and a Wednesday-to-Saturday turnaround on the West Coast will not help.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Dallas Prediction
The Quakes are the firmer side of the bet. San Jose lead FC Dallas by 10 points in the table, have scored more goals than any side in the league besides Vancouver, and FC Dallas’s away record reads patchy across their last five trips. We are taking San Jose Earthquakes to win with bet365 as the anchor pick, with Both Teams to Score the natural add-on given Petar Musa’s scoring rate for the visitors. See our full soccer predictions hub for the rest of the weekend, and the MLS hub for further reading.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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