Cleveland were given a 40% chance of winning Game 1 and won it 7-3, scoring seven across the last four innings after trailing. They lead this ALCS 1-0 with both games still at Tropicana Field. Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated US prediction market, has responded by making Tampa Bay favourites again.
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Match markets — Guardians vs Rays
Tampa Bay sit at 56% and Cleveland at 43% for Game 2 — the market backing the home side to level despite losing the opener, exactly as it did before Game 1. The World Series board is where the real movement is. Milwaukee have jumped to 45% after going 2-0 up in the NLCS, Los Angeles have fallen from 33% to 21%, and Cleveland and Tampa Bay are now level at 16% apiece — the Guardians lead their series and the market still cannot separate them.
Match Markets — Guardians vs Rays
Game Winner
- Cleveland43%
- Tampa Bay56%
World Series Winner
- Milwaukee45%
- Los Angeles D21%
- Tampa Bay16%
- Cleveland16%
Claim offer →Probabilities are the live Kalshi yes-side bid, correct at 5:16am ET on October 13. Markets move; not financial advice. 18+. Full Kalshi review.
Cleveland trailed 2-0 after five innings on Monday before the game turned completely in the last four. They hand Game 2 to Parker Messick, the left-hander who started twice in the ALDS, against Freddy Peralta for the Rays. Tampa Bay have now lost once at home in this postseason having swept the Yankees, and a second defeat would send them to Cleveland two down.
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More on prediction markets
- What is Kalshi? Sports prediction markets explained
- Kalshi vs Polymarket: which prediction market is better?
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