Cleveland were a defeat from the end of their season on Wednesday and won 9-3. They are a defeat from the end of their season again on Thursday. It is the only baseball being played tonight — the other three Division Series all finished yesterday — and Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated US prediction market, makes the side facing elimination the narrow favourite.
If you are new to prediction markets, signing up through our link gets you the Trade $25, Get $25 Bonus. You will see “SQUAWKA sent you $25 on Kalshi” and it applies automatically, with no code to enter. First pitch is 8:00pm ET on Thursday on TBS, truTV and HBO Max.
Match markets — Guardians vs White Sox
Cleveland sit at 51% and Chicago at 48%, on one-cent spreads. That is the second night running the market has preferred the team with no margin for error, and after a nine-run performance in Game 3 it is not hard to see why. The run lines lean the same way: Cleveland 51% to clear 3.5, Chicago 47%.
Match Markets — Guardians vs White Sox
Game Winner
- Cleveland51%
- Chicago WS48%
Guardians Runs
- Over 3.551%
- Over 4.537%
White Sox Runs
- Over 3.547%
- Over 4.533%
Claim offer →Probabilities are the live Kalshi yes-side bid, correct at 6:10am ET on October 8. Markets move; not financial advice. 18+. Full Kalshi review.
Chicago lead the series 2-1 and can still close it out at home, having taken the first two games in Cleveland. The Guardians answered 9-3 on Wednesday to force a fourth game. Parker Messick starts for Cleveland, the left-hander who opened the series, against Hagen Smith, making his third start of this postseason for Chicago. MLB moved first pitch from its provisional 5pm slot to primetime once Tampa Bay finished the Yankees on Wednesday night, leaving this as the last game standing in the round.
How to claim the Kalshi welcome bonus
- Sign up at Kalshi via our link — the SQUAWKA bonus applies automatically, no code to type.
- Make a qualifying $25 trade.
- Your $25 bonus unlocks. Our Kalshi referral code guide has the full terms.
More on prediction markets
- What is Kalshi? Sports prediction markets explained
- Kalshi vs Polymarket: which prediction market is better?
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.