Two Western Conference sides in serious need of a turnaround meet at Q2 Stadium on Sunday, May 3, at 5:30 PM ET, when Austin FC host St. Louis City SC in a bottom-half MLS clash that both teams can ill afford to lose.
Verde sit 13th in the West on 10 points from 10 games, while City are even further behind in 14th with just six points from nine — already six points adrift of the playoff cut-off with the season gathering pace. This is a game between two clubs still searching for an identity in 2026, but the difference in recent momentum gives Austin a narrow edge heading into Sunday.
Austin come in off the back of a 2-0 home win over Texas rivals Houston Dynamo on Saturday — their first win in four attempts — so the mood around Q2 has lifted slightly. St. Louis, meanwhile, have conceded seven goals in their last two outings and arrive in Texas without a win in four. Goals should flow; goals in favor of the home side is the smarter lean.
Best Bets & Predictions
| Market | Our Pick | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | -163 @ bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Austin have scored in seven of their 10 league games; St. Louis have found the net in five of nine — both defenses rank among the worst in the West for goals conceded. |
| Correct Score | 2-1 Austin FC | +900 @ bet365 | ⭐⭐ | Five of Austin’s six home matches have produced two or more home goals; St. Louis’ defensive record away from CITYPARK is even worse than at home. |
| Anytime Goalscorer | Marcel Hartel | +210 @ bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Hartel leads St. Louis with three goals this season and has registered 16 shots on target in only eight appearances — the highest on-target total of any City player by some distance. |
| Result | Austin FC Win | +145 @ bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Home advantage, a momentum boost from the Houston win, and a St. Louis side conceding freely on the road all point toward Verde edging this. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | Yes | -138 @ bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Three or more goals have come in six of Austin’s 10 league matches this season, and St. Louis’ last two games have produced eight goals combined. |
Our approach: anchor on the Austin win, add the Over 2.5 Goals for extra value.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability
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Match-specific prediction market pricing for Austin FC vs St. Louis City SC has not yet surfaced at time of writing. The sportsbook read is the cleaner tool for this match. We’ll update here if and when Kalshi or Polymarket list the fixture.
Season Form & Standings
Austin and St. Louis share a conference and a problem: neither side has found any consistency through the opening third of the 2026 season. Verde’s goal difference of -5 and City’s -7 tell a similar story — two teams leaking more than they score, struggling to put results together on a week-to-week basis. Check the full MLS standings for the broader Western Conference picture.
| Western Conference | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin FC | 13 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 10 |
| St. Louis City SC | 14 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 6 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Myrto Uzuni (Austin FC): The Albanian striker is Austin’s most direct attacking threat, with three goals from nine appearances this season and nine successful dribbles — more than any other Verde forward. His movement off the last defender gives City’s backline a problem they have struggled to solve on the road.
- Facundo Torres (Austin FC): Operating just behind the striker or drifting from wide, Torres leads Austin for assists with four in 10 appearances and has created two big chances — a creative output that makes him the engine of everything Verde do going forward.
- Marcel Hartel (St. Louis City SC): City’s standout performer this season by a considerable margin. Three goals and 16 shots on target in eight appearances — that on-target total is more than double the next player in City’s squad — and he carries a genuine goal threat from midfield that Austin cannot afford to ignore.
- Daniel Edelman (St. Louis City SC): Hartel’s creative foil in the City midfield, Edelman has created three big chances and provided two assists in nine games. If St. Louis are to find a way back into this match, it will likely run through him.
Head-to-Head
St. Louis City have the better of this fixture historically, winning four of the six all-time meetings against Austin in MLS competition, with Austin taking just one win and one draw from the series. City’s trips to Q2 have been particularly punishing — they have won both previous visits — though Austin did take the spoils in Missouri in March 2025, and the head-to-head record does not quite reflect how competitive these games have been in recent seasons.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2025 | Austin 1-3 St. Louis City | MLS |
| Mar 30, 2025 | St. Louis City 0-1 Austin | MLS |
| Apr 14, 2024 | St. Louis City 1-0 Austin | MLS |
| Mar 10, 2024 | Austin 2-2 St. Louis City | MLS |
| Aug 21, 2023 | St. Louis City 6-3 Austin | MLS |
Recent Form
Austin FC — W L D L D
- Apr 26: Austin 2-0 Houston Dynamo (Win, home)
- Apr 23: SJ Earthquakes 5-1 Austin (Loss, away)
- Apr 18: Toronto 3-3 Austin (Draw, away)
- Apr 11: Austin 1-2 LA Galaxy (Loss, home)
- Apr 5: Inter Miami 2-2 Austin (Draw, away)
Austin’s season has been a stop-start affair — two wins in 10 league games, with four draws offering a little padding on what could otherwise be a very difficult points total. Saturday’s 2-0 win over Houston, their first victory since March, snapped a run of eight without a win (all comps). Verde have rarely been blown away — they scored three in Toronto, and two in Miami — but defending has been the persistent issue, with 19 goals conceded in their opening 10 matches.
St. Louis City SC — L L D D W
- Apr 26: St. Louis City 2-3 SJ Earthquakes (Loss, home)
- Apr 19: Seattle Sounders 4-1 St. Louis City (Loss, away)
- Apr 12: FC Dallas 1-1 St. Louis City (Draw, away)
- Apr 5: New York City FC 1-1 St. Louis City (Draw, away)
- Mar 22: St. Louis City 3-1 New England Revolution (Win, home)
City’s last league win came on home soil against New England on March 22, and they have taken just two points from four games since — conceding nine in the process. Both recent losses have come to quality opposition in San Jose and Seattle, but the manner of them, conceding three and four goals respectively, suggests structural problems at the back that a trip to Q2 Stadium is unlikely to cure. City’s lone win of the season came at CITYPARK; away from home, they have two draws and three defeats from five outings.
Austin FC vs St. Louis City SC Prediction
Form, venue, and standing all point in the same direction here. Austin are far from convincing in 2026, but St. Louis arrive in Texas on the back of a damaging run, with defensive concerns that Verde’s attack — led by Uzuni and the creative Torres — should be able to exploit. Back Austin to win and both teams to score for a combination that reflects the attacking intent on both sides; a 2-1 to the hosts is the exact-score play worth considering. For the latest prices, click here for latest Bet365 odds. For a wider look at the weekend’s soccer predictions, we have full coverage across MLS and beyond.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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