Toronto FC host San Jose Earthquakes at BMO Field on Saturday, May 2, at 1:00 PM ET, and the form gap heading into this MLS cross-conference clash is one of the sharpest in the league.
The Quakes arrive on a six-match winning run, top of the Western Conference on 27 points with a goal difference of +19. Toronto, meanwhile, had their seven-game unbeaten streak snapped by Atlanta United last week and sit sixth in the East. Our Toronto FC vs San Jose Earthquakes prediction: back the visitors to make it seven straight.
San Jose’s record — nine wins, zero draws, one loss — reflects a team that does not settle for stalemates. Their 25 goals lead MLS and the six conceded is one of the best defensive marks in the league. Preston Judd fronts the attack with six goals and 17 shots on target in ten appearances. Toronto face those numbers without Djordje Mihailovic (pelvis) and Richie Laryea (thigh).
Best Bets & Predictions
| Market | Our Pick | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | -187 @ Bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Toronto scored in their last seven home matches, including two 3-3 draws; San Jose have only failed to score once this season. |
| Correct Score | Toronto 1-2 SJ Earthquakes | +800 @ Bet365 | ⭐⭐ | San Jose have won 3-2, 4-1, and 5-1 in recent weeks; Toronto find a way to score but the Quakes have the edge in most scenarios. |
| Anytime Goalscorer | Preston Judd (SJ Earthquakes) | +150 @ Bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Six goals in ten appearances and 17 shots on target — Judd is involved in virtually every Quakes attacking move. |
| Result | SJ Earthquakes Win | +100 @ Bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Six straight wins, no draws all season, best attack and one of the best defenses in MLS — the form case for San Jose is overwhelming. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | Yes | -166 @ Bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | San Jose average 2.5 goals per match; five of Toronto’s last six home games have produced three or more goals. |
Our approach: anchor on the SJ Earthquakes win and stack Preston Judd as anytime goalscorer for value.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Deposit required. Paid in Bonus Bets. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New customers only. T&Cs, time limits, and exclusions apply.
Season Form & Standings
The two-conference split captures just how differently these clubs are faring. San Jose lead the Western Conference by a significant margin, while Toronto sit sixth in the East — inside the playoff positions but far from settled. Check the full MLS standings for the broader picture.
| Eastern Conference | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC | 6 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 13 |
| Western Conference | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJ Earthquakes | 1 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 6 | +19 | 27 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Preston Judd (SJ Earthquakes): The most in-form striker in MLS, with six goals and 17 shots on target in ten appearances. He is the obvious anytime goalscorer selection and the fulcrum of everything San Jose do going forward.
- Timo Werner (SJ Earthquakes): Four goals and three assists this season underline why Werner has reinvigorated his career at PayPal Park. His movement between the lines is a persistent problem for opposing defenses, and he complements Judd’s direct running with genuine creativity.
- Ousseni Bouda (SJ Earthquakes): Five goals in ten games makes Bouda one of the most productive forwards in MLS this season. His pace on the counter could be decisive if Toronto commit bodies forward chasing an equalizer.
- Daniel Salloi (Toronto FC): Three goals and two assists from Salloi represent Toronto’s brightest creative spark with Mihailovic absent. He will need to be at his best if TFC are to threaten a San Jose defense that has conceded just six goals all season.
Head-to-Head
These clubs have met 14 times in MLS history: Toronto have won just three times to San Jose’s five, while the two have shared six draws. Half of those stalemates have come in the last three meetings.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2023 | SJ Earthquakes 0-0 Toronto | MLS |
| Jul 10, 2022 | Toronto 2-2 SJ Earthquakes | MLS |
| Feb 29, 2020 | SJ Earthquakes 2-2 Toronto | MLS |
| May 27, 2019 | Toronto 1-2 SJ Earthquakes | MLS |
| Aug 19, 2018 | SJ Earthquakes 1-1 Toronto | MLS |
Recent Form
Toronto FC — L D D D W
- Apr 25: 1-2 vs Atlanta United (L, home)
- Apr 23: 3-3 vs Philadelphia Union (D, home)
- Apr 18: 3-3 vs Austin FC (D, home)
- Apr 11: 1-1 vs FC Cincinnati (D, home)
- Apr 4: 3-2 vs Colorado Rapids (W, home)
Toronto’s unbeaten run came to an abrupt end when Atlanta won 2-1 last weekend. The run itself told a story of a team that stays competitive but concedes before it wins rather than the other way around. Because Mihailovic is absent, the creative burden falls on Salloi and Josh Sargent — two goals and eight shots on target between them this season.
SJ Earthquakes — W W W W W
- Apr 26: 2-3 at St. Louis City (W, away)
- Apr 23: 5-1 vs Austin FC (W, home)
- Apr 20: 1-4 at LAFC (W, away)
- Apr 12: 1-3 at Sporting KC (W, away)
- Apr 5: 3-0 vs San Diego FC (W, home)
Six consecutive wins, with the streak starting at Vancouver in March — the last loss was at home to Seattle well over a month ago. San Jose have come from behind with regularity, too, showing great mental resilience.
Toronto FC vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction
The data points overwhelmingly toward San Jose. Their season record — nine wins, zero draws, the best attack and a strong defense — is not a scheduling fluke, and Toronto without Mihailovic are a less dangerous proposition in the final third. The draw-heavy home form actually supports BTTS, and Preston Judd at anytime goalscorer is the value pairing with the outright result. Back San Jose to win and Judd to score anytime at Bet365, and consider Over 2.5 goals for anyone building an acca.
For more soccer predictions across MLS and beyond, we have the full weekend covered.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Must be 21+. GAMBLING PROBLEM? Call 1-800-GAMBLER