PSG host Bayern Munich at the Parc des Princes on Tuesday, April 28 at 3:00 PM ET, with a place in the Champions League final on the line.
The first leg of this last-four tie pairs the holders, who have rolled through the knockout rounds, with the German champions, who have outscored every team in Europe on their way here.
This is the third Champions League meeting between these two in five seasons. Bayern have won seven of the last 10 head-to-head encounters, including the 2-1 win at this same stadium back in November’s League Stage. Paris will know they have to take a lead to Munich.
The market reads close. Bet365 price PSG at +130 to win the leg, with Bayern at +175 and the draw the longest of the three. Goals are the bookmakers’ confident call: Over 2.5 sits at -250, both teams to score at -275. Wednesday’s other semi-final between Atlético Madrid and Arsenal is the contrasting tie — that one looks set up for a low-scoring opener.
Best Bets & Predictions
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSG to win | +130 @ bet365 (43.5%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Bayern arrive without Alphonso Davies and Min-Jae Kim; PSG kept clean sheets in both QF legs against Liverpool. |
| Both teams to score — Yes | -275 @ bet365 (73.3%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Bayern have scored in every Champions League match this season; PSG have scored in their last seven knockout outings. |
| Over 2.5 goals | -250 @ bet365 (71.4%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Both quarter-final ties cleared this line. Bayern’s last 10 UCL games have averaged 4.0 goals. |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia anytime goalscorer | +162 @ bet365 (38.2%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Eight Champions League goals from 13 appearances — leads PSG’s scoring chart and is the value option behind Kane. |
| Correct score: 2-2 | +900 @ bet365 (10.0%) | ⭐⭐ | Both attacks fit, both defenses depleted in patches. A high-scoring draw is priced about right and keeps the tie alive. |
Our approach: Lead with PSG to win and BTTS Yes, layer Kvaratskhelia for the player angle. Full price comparison and other markets are on our bet365 review page.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Road to the Semi-finals
PSG finished 11th in the League Stage and worked the longer route through. Bayern claimed second place behind Arsenal — the full League Stage table is here — and went straight to the Round of 16 with two ties to navigate.
| Round | PSG | Result |
|---|---|---|
| KO Play-offs | v Monaco | 3-2 (a), 2-2 (h) — won 5-4 agg |
| Round of 16 | v Chelsea | 5-2 (h), 3-0 (a) — won 8-2 agg |
| Quarter-final | v Liverpool | 2-0 (h), 2-0 (a) — won 4-0 agg |
| Round | Bayern | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Round of 16 | v Atalanta | 6-1 (a), 4-1 (h) — won 10-2 agg |
| Quarter-final | v Real Madrid | 2-1 (a), 4-3 (h) — won 6-4 agg |
The contrast is sharp. PSG’s last two rounds have been about defensive control — they conceded none across the four legs against Chelsea and Liverpool combined. Bayern’s two ties have averaged just over four goals a leg in the other direction.
Potential Match-Winners
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (PSG): Eight goals and five assists in 13 Champions League appearances; leads the squad’s scoring chart and has been directly involved in 13 of PSG’s goals in the competition.
- Harry Kane (Bayern): Twelve goals from 12 UCL games this season — only Álvarez of Atlético is close. xG of 5.6 means he’s outperforming, but the volume is real, with 21 shots on target.
- Ousmane Dembélé (PSG): Four goals and one assist in 10 starts; xG of 3.93 against four scored suggests his finishing has matched expectation rather than punched above it. Still PSG’s most direct outlet.
- Michael Olise (Bayern): Six assists in 11 League Stage and knockout outings, plus four goals. The fulcrum of Bayern’s attack from the right.
Head-to-Head
Bayern lead 7-3 across the last 10 meetings, with no draws — these two don’t share. The November League Stage tie at the Parc des Princes ended 2-1 Bayern, with Kane on the scoresheet.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2025 | PSG 1-2 Bayern | UCL League Stage |
| Jul 5, 2025 | PSG 2-0 Bayern | FIFA Club World Cup |
| Nov 26, 2024 | Bayern 1-0 PSG | UCL League Stage |
| Mar 8, 2023 | Bayern 2-0 PSG | UCL Round of 16 |
| Feb 14, 2023 | PSG 0-1 Bayern | UCL Round of 16 |
Recent Form
Paris Saint-Germain — W W W W W
- Apr 25: Angers 0-3 PSG (W, away, Ligue 1)
- Apr 14: Liverpool 0-2 PSG (W, away, UCL QF)
- Apr 8: PSG 2-0 Liverpool (W, home, UCL QF)
- Apr 4: PSG 4-1 Le Havre (W, home, Ligue 1)
- Mar 30: Saint-Étienne 1-3 PSG (W, away, Ligue 1)
Five wins in a row, with two clean sheets against Liverpool the headline. The Ligue 1 title is wrapped up; this is now solely about Europe.
Bayern Munich — W W W W W
- Apr 25: Mainz 3-4 Bayern (W, away, Bundesliga)
- Apr 15: Bayern 4-3 Real Madrid (W, home, UCL QF)
- Apr 7: Real Madrid 1-2 Bayern (W, away, UCL QF)
- Apr 1: Bayern 3-1 Augsburg (W, home, Bundesliga)
- Mar 18: Bayern 4-1 Atalanta (W, home, UCL R16)
Five straight wins as well, but every Bayern game brings goals at both ends. The Mainz comeback from 0-3 down at half time is the kind of resilience that makes them dangerous, and the kind of vulnerability that makes them backable.
PSG vs Bayern Munich Prediction
This is a tie that should produce goals, and a first leg PSG will want to win without leaving Munich a foothold. The bookmakers narrowly favor the holders — and with Bayern missing two senior defensive starters in Davies and Kim, that lean looks right. PSG to win at +130 at bet365 is the headline pick, with Kvaratskhelia goal cover. Catch the rest of the week’s action via the Champions League hub.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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