Underdog Predict is the event-contract side of Underdog, the daily-fantasy operator. Instead of entering a contest, you trade Yes or No contracts on team and player outcomes at a price the market sets, on an exchange Underdog owns and runs itself.
New users get a 50% match on their first deposit, up to $1,000 in bonus funds. The offer headline also carries Keep Your Million, a promo game we explain below. This review covers how the exchange works, what the play-through requirement actually asks of you, where it is available, and how it compares with Kalshi and Polymarket.
Underdog Predict Welcome Offer
50% first deposit match, up to $1,000 in bonus funds
Make a qualifying first deposit and Underdog credits bonus funds worth half of it, to a $1,000 ceiling. Deposit $200 and you are credited $100. Deposit $2,000 and you hit the cap.
How the Offer Works
- Create an Underdog account and complete verification
- Make a qualifying first deposit — a minimum applies, though Underdog does not publish the figure
- Bonus funds worth 50% of the deposit are credited, up to $1,000
- Play through the combined total of your deposit and the bonus
- Complete it within 14 days of the bonus being issued, or it is forfeited
The play-through is the part worth reading twice. Bonus funds are non-withdrawable until the requirement is met, and the requirement covers your own deposit as well as the bonus. Unused bonus funds also expire 14 days after they land. Work the turnover out before you choose a deposit size: $400 in means $600 of combined play-through, and chasing the $1,000 cap with a $2,000 deposit means $3,000, all inside a fortnight.
What Is Underdog Predict?
Every market is a question with a settlement rule. Will a team win. Will a player pass a stat line. Will a real-world event resolve one way or the other. You buy Yes or No contracts at the price the order book is showing, priced in cents on the dollar, and the contract settles at its true value.
It runs on Underdog Exchange (UDX), which Underdog owns and operates, and which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as both a Designated Contract Market and a Derivatives Clearing Organization. That is the same federal framework Kalshi and Polymarket operate under, and it is a different thing entirely from a state gambling licence.
Owning the exchange rather than listing on someone else’s matters more than it sounds. ProphetX spent its first year on a sweepstakes framework while its CFTC applications went through. Underdog is already on the other side of that.
How Event Contracts Work
The practical difference from a fantasy entry, or from a sportsbook bet, is that a position has a live value. Contracts are priced continuously and can be traded before settlement, so you can close out early, take a profit on a move, or cut a loss rather than waiting for the final whistle.
Pricing works differently too. A sportsbook builds margin into both sides of a market, so the two prices add up to more than 100%. On an exchange you are trading against other users, and the spread is whatever the order book supports. That usually means better prices on heavily traded markets and worse liquidity on thin ones.
The trade-off is real risk. A position can lose its entire value, and no promotion changes that. Underdog’s own terms are explicit that trading decisions and their consequences are yours alone.
Keep Your Million
The offer headline pairs the deposit match with Keep Your Million, so it is worth knowing what that is before you sign up expecting a seven-figure bonus.
It is a promo game inside the Underdog app, not an event-contract market and not credited bonus funds. You start with a virtual $1,000,000 pot and face 20 player-prop questions, splitting the pot across HIGHER and LOWER however you like each round. Whatever sits on the winning side carries forward. Survive all 20 and you keep the remainder, paid as cash.
The mechanic to understand is that the pot decays. Hedge evenly through all 20 rounds and you finish with about a dollar. Going all in each time needs 20 straight correct calls to keep the full amount, which is roughly a one-in-a-million shot at even money. Treat the million as the name of the game rather than the prize. Full mechanics are in our Underdog Fantasy review, since it runs on the fantasy side of the app.
Underdog Predict vs Kalshi and Polymarket
All three are CFTC-regulated event-contract venues, so the choice is about coverage, funding and what else you want on the account.
- Kalshi trades nationwide with the deepest liquidity and fiat funding. The default pick if you want the broadest state coverage and the tightest spreads
- Polymarket has the widest market list by some distance, but funds in USDC, which means a stablecoin step before you can trade
- Underdog Predict funds in dollars and sits on the same account and balance as Underdog’s pick’em and best ball contests. The natural pick if you already use Underdog, or if you want fantasy and event contracts without running two apps
Where it loses out is coverage. Kalshi trades in states Underdog Predict does not, and the market list is narrower than either of the bigger two. It is a strong second account rather than an obvious first one.
Pros and Cons
Pros
- CFTC-registered as both a DCM and a DCO, and Underdog owns the exchange rather than listing on someone else’s
- Dollar funding through the normal cashier — no stablecoin or wallet step
- One account and one balance covers event contracts and daily fantasy
- 50% first deposit match up to $1,000 is among the largest welcome offers in the category
- Available in eight states where Underdog’s fantasy product is not, including Connecticut, Louisiana and Washington
Cons
- Bonus funds are non-withdrawable until the combined deposit and bonus are played through, inside 14 days
- No published minimum deposit, so you cannot plan the qualifying amount in advance
- Market list and liquidity trail Kalshi and Polymarket
- Unavailable in 13 jurisdictions including New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Ohio
- The Keep Your Million headline oversells what most users will actually walk away with
Where Underdog Predict Is Available
Underdog Predict trades in 38 US jurisdictions: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.
It is not available in Arizona, Colorado, Kentucky, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Washington D.C..
Worth flagging clearly: this is not the same footprint as Underdog’s fantasy contests. Predict trades in Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Louisiana, Maine, Montana and Washington, where the fantasy product is unavailable. It is unavailable in Arizona, Colorado, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Mississippi and Washington D.C., where fantasy is fine. Being eligible for one does not mean you are eligible for the other, and rules in this category move quickly, so confirm in the app before funding.
Funding and Withdrawals
Deposits and withdrawals run through the same cashier as the rest of the Underdog app, in dollars. Identity verification applies before a first withdrawal, so it is worth completing early rather than discovering it when you want your money out.
Bonus funds sit separately from cash until the play-through is met. Until then they are not withdrawable, and the 14-day clock runs from the moment they are credited rather than from your first trade.
How to Sign Up
- Open the Underdog site or app and select Sign Up
- Enter your details and verify your account by email
- Confirm you are in one of the 38 eligible jurisdictions
- Go to the cashier and make your first deposit
- Bonus funds worth 50% of that deposit are credited, up to $1,000
- Trade through the combined deposit and bonus within 14 days
Verdict: Is Underdog Predict Worth It?
Yes, with a caveat about the offer rather than the product. The exchange itself is the real thing — CFTC-registered on both counts, owned outright rather than leased, funded in dollars, and sitting on the same balance as a fantasy product plenty of people already use. For anyone holding an Underdog account, it is the lowest-friction way into event contracts available.
The welcome offer is large and the condition attached to it is real. A 50% match to $1,000 is as big as anything in the category, but the 14-day combined play-through means the headline figure is not free money, and the Keep Your Million framing promises more than the mechanic delivers. Size your deposit around the turnover, not the cap.
Underdog Predict Rating: 8.5 / 10
A properly regulated exchange with dollar funding and a genuinely useful second product on the same account, held back by narrower coverage than Kalshi and a welcome offer that asks more of you than it first appears.
Underdog Predict FAQs
Underdog Predict is Underdog’s event-contract product. Rather than entering a fantasy contest, you trade Yes or No contracts on team and player outcomes, and on other real-world events, at a price set by the market. It runs on Underdog Exchange (UDX), which Underdog owns and operates.
Yes. UDX is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as both a Designated Contract Market and a Derivatives Clearing Organization, which is the same federal framework Kalshi and Polymarket trade under. It is not regulated as a sportsbook under state gambling law.
New users receive a 50% match on their first deposit, up to $1,000 in bonus funds. The combined total of the deposit and the bonus must be played through within 14 days, or the bonus is forfeited.
Yes. Bonus funds are non-withdrawable until the requirement is met, and it covers both your own deposit and the bonus rather than the bonus alone. Unused bonus funds expire 14 days after being credited.
Underdog requires a minimum deposit to qualify for a deposit match but does not publish the figure. Check the cashier before funding if you are depositing specifically to trigger the match.
38 US jurisdictions. It is not available in Arizona, Colorado, Kentucky, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania or Washington D.C. Availability differs from Underdog’s fantasy product, so being eligible for one does not mean you are eligible for the other.
In dollars, through the same cashier as the rest of the Underdog app. There is no stablecoin or crypto wallet step of the kind Polymarket and ForeGate require.
All three trade event contracts under CFTC oversight. Kalshi has the deepest liquidity and the widest state coverage; Polymarket has the broadest market list but funds in USDC. Underdog Predict is the one that sits alongside a daily-fantasy product on the same account and balance, which suits anyone already using Underdog for pick’em or best ball.
Keep Your Million appears in the offer headline, but it is a promo game inside the Underdog app built on player-prop questions rather than an event-contract market. The $1,000,000 is a virtual starting pot, not an amount credited to your account.
18+ (19+ in AL, NE; 21+ in AZ, MA, VA). Trading event contracts involves risk, including total loss on a position. Underdog Exchange is subject to CFTC regulatory oversight. Bonus funds carry a play-through requirement and expire 14 days after being credited. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2573).