Liga MX top scorer odds & Signal model
Signal makes Jose Gimenez the Liga MX top scorer favorite at 55%, on 8 goals so far and a projected 15. Every contender below carries our model’s probability of finishing top scorer, next to the live prediction-market price, so you can see where Signal and the money disagree.
Updated September 14, 2026 · goals to date shown · refreshed daily
How to read it
Signal is our model’s probability that each player finishes the season as Liga MX top scorer winner — built from goals to date plus a projection of the rest of the season from each player’s scoring rate. Market is what the prediction markets are paying. The market hasn’t priced this race yet, so the table is Signal-only for now; the Kalshi and Polymarket columns fill in automatically once those markets start trading.
How Signal projects the top scorer
Signal banks each contender’s goals so far, then projects his remaining goals from a scoring rate that leans on his record and is regressed for a small sample, across his team’s remaining fixtures. It then simulates the race tens of thousands of times to turn those projections into a probability of finishing top. The whole table — goals, projected total and probability — refreshes every day as results land.
FAQ
Who is favorite for the Liga MX top scorer? Jose Gimenez tops Squawka Signal’s model at 55%, on 8 goals so far. The full order of contenders, with the market’s view alongside, is in the table above.
How often do these odds update? Every day. Signal re-banks each player’s goals and re-projects the rest of the season, and the live Kalshi and Polymarket prices refresh alongside.
More from Squawka Signal
How Squawka Signal works · Liga MX AI Predictor · Liga MX on Squawka
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Odds approximate at time of writing. Squawka Signal is a model, not betting advice.