Newcastle vs Bournemouth: Predictions, odds, picks & stats

Newcastle United host AFC Bournemouth at St. James’ Park on Saturday, April 18, with kickoff set for 10:00 AM ET.

There is a strange reversal of gravity at work in this fixture. The Cherries, supposedly the plucky south-coast upstarts, arrive on Tyneside sitting three points and three places above their hosts in the Premier League table. They are unbeaten in 12 Premier League matches stretching back to early January, with last weekend’s 2-1 win at the Emirates fresh in the memory and a healthy confidence in the legs. Newcastle, by contrast, have won three of their last ten and come into this one missing a small squad of first-choice names.

Bruno Guimaraes is sidelined with a hamstring problem. Joelinton is serving the second of his two-match suspension after picking up his tenth yellow of the season. Fabian Schar remains in the treatment room. That is the spine of the side that got the Magpies as high as fifth earlier this campaign, and losing it now leaves the Magpies fielding a threadbare engine room against one of the most in-form attacks in the division.

The bookmakers still make Newcastle the narrow favourite at home. The form line, the injuries, and the head-to-head history all suggest they might be wrong.

Best Bets & Predictions

Our Newcastle vs Bournemouth prediction leans into the Cherries’ momentum, the absence of Newcastle’s midfield engine, and a fixture that has produced goals at both ends in every one of the last five meetings.

Our approach: Start with Bournemouth Double Chance, add Kroupi anytime goalscorer for parlay potential.

Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.

Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability

Note for US readers: Polymarket is now live for real-money trading in the US following its 2025 acquisition of QCX, a CFTC-regulated exchange, available in most states except Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, Nevada and Ohio. New US users can claim a 100% deposit match up to $50 with code ACQUIRE05. Market prices shown are real-money figures from the Polymarket platform. Kalshi, also CFTC-regulated, trades in all 50 states.

The prediction markets paint a tighter picture than the sportsbooks. On Kalshi, traders lean toward the Cherries being live for something from this trip, with the draw looming large as a third option given the historical pattern. Polymarket sentiment tracks the same way, reflecting both Bournemouth’s recent form and Newcastle’s injury concerns. The goals markets are decisive — both platforms expect this to be a high-scoring afternoon on Tyneside.

Season Form & Standings

The 2025/26 Premier League standings present a quiet little embarrassment for the Magpies. The Cherries, who spent most of the autumn fighting for survival, are now three points and three places clear of a Newcastle side that spent the first half of the season chasing a European finish. Goal difference tells the tale too: Bournemouth have scored 48, Newcastle 45. The pressure is all on the home side.

Potential Match-Winners

• Eli Junior Kroupi (Bournemouth): The 19-year-old Frenchman has been a revelation, scoring 10 Premier League goals from just 3.82 xG across 1,246 minutes — a staggering per-90 rate of 0.72. The numbers say a correction is overdue; the form says his touch keeps finding the corner.
• Marcus Tavernier (Bournemouth): Five goals and four assists from 28 appearances this season, with 19 shots on target and an xA of 3.87. Tavernier has been one of the most productive wide attackers in the Cherries squad, and against a Newcastle midfield shorn of Bruno Guimaraes and Joelinton, he will find space to operate.
• Anthony Gordon (Newcastle): The Magpies’ most consistent source of threat with 6 goals and 2 assists from 26 appearances. Gordon averages 0.99 shots on target per 90 and has 4.0 expected assists for the season. With the midfield gutted by absences, he becomes the creative outlet and finisher rolled into one.
• Nick Woltemade (Newcastle): Seven goals and three assists in 28 games, with an xG of 6.76 that puts him among the more reliable finishers in the division. Woltemade’s aerial presence and movement in the box make him a genuine threat against a Bournemouth defence that has conceded 49 goals this season.

Head-to-Head

This fixture has become one of the league’s strangest grudges. The Magpies have not beaten the Cherries in any of their last five meetings in league or cup — four draws and a thumping 4-1 Bournemouth win at St. James’ in January 2025. Newcastle did manage to prevail on penalties in the FA Cup tie earlier this season, but ninety minutes of open play has not produced a Newcastle win over this opponent in more than two years. Every one of the last five meetings has produced goals at both ends.

Recent Form

Newcastle United — L L W W L

• Apr 12: Crystal Palace 2-1 Newcastle (L, away)
• Mar 22: Newcastle 1-2 Sunderland (L, home)
• Mar 14: Chelsea 0-1 Newcastle (W, away)
• Mar 4: Newcastle 2-1 Manchester United (W, home)
• Feb 28: Newcastle 2-3 Everton (L, home)

A derby defeat to Sunderland on home soil was as bruising as Premier League losses get, and the trip to Selhurst Park followed the same script — competitive, but leaking late goals. The two wins in the middle of this run look more distant by the week, and the Magpies have conceded in each of their last three home matches.

AFC Bournemouth — W D D D D

• Apr 11: Arsenal 1-2 Bournemouth (W, away)
• Mar 20: Bournemouth 2-2 Manchester United (D, home)
• Mar 14: Burnley 0-0 Bournemouth (D, away)
• Mar 3: Bournemouth 0-0 Brentford (D, home)
• Feb 28: Bournemouth 1-1 Sunderland (D, home)

Four consecutive draws ended emphatically with a victory at the Emirates — the latest chapter in an unbeaten run that now stretches to 12 Premier League matches dating back to early January. That streak has announced the Cherries’ arrival as genuine dark horses for a European spot. Kroupi and Marcus Tavernier have been the standout threats throughout this run, and the midfield platform, even without Lewis Cook, has looked settled and composed.

Newcastle vs Bournemouth Prediction

This is the sort of fixture where the form book should trump the form table. The Cherries arrive with momentum, a clean injury list compared to their hosts, and a historical record that should make Newcastle nervous. The home side’s midfield — Bruno Guimaraes out, Joelinton suspended — has been hollowed out at exactly the wrong moment. Back Bournemouth Double Chance at -150 with Bet365 as the headline pick, and pair Kroupi anytime goalscorer at +162 for a stat-backed parlay. For more picks across the weekend, see our soccer predictions page, and visit the Bet365 sportsbook review for sign-up details.

Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.

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