NYCFC vs Nashville SC: Predictions, Picks, Odds & Lineups

NYCFC host Nashville SC at Yankee Stadium on Friday, September 4 (7:30 PM ET / 6:30 PM CT / 4:30 PM PT).

NYCFC have no fresh team news to report here, with the full complement of attacking talent available for selection. Nicolás Fernández Mercau leads the way with 14 goals from 54 shots and 32 shots on target, adding 40 chances created that mark him as City’s chief creative outlet, while Axel Ojeda and Hannes Wolf, both on 5 goals apiece, offer secondary support up top. Nashville SC arrive with the same clean bill of health, built around Sam Surridge’s 12 goals and Hany Mukhtar, who has created 28 chances on top of his own 9 goals.

Nashville sit top of the Eastern Conference with 49 points from 21 games (W15 D4 L2, +26 goal difference), the form of a side that rarely needs to force matters. NYCFC sit seventh in the East and have blown hot and cold in recent weeks, needing a disciplined defensive shape to keep the league’s form side quiet. Expect chances to be at a premium, with Fernández Mercau and Surridge the two most likely to find a way through in what looks set up for a single moment to decide it.

US viewers can watch NYCFC vs Nashville SC on Apple TV’s MLS Season Pass.

NYCFC vs Nashville SC: Best Bets & Predictions

Nashville SC bring the league's best record to New York looking to stretch their lead at the top of the East.

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🇺🇸 United StatesTrade on Kalshi 🌎 Outside the USOdds via bet365

Nashville SCTop pickNashville SC top the Eastern Conference with 49 points from 21 games (W15 D4 L2, +26 goal difference), form that makes them favorites even on the road.

44%win prob.185 @ bet365

0-1 NYCFCSam Surridge already has 12 goals this season and just needs a moment in a game we expect to stay tight throughout.

9%chance1000 @ bet365

NoOur Signal model has this finishing 0-1, with just Nashville getting on the scoresheet.

44%chance120 @ bet365

Under 2.5A 0-1 predicted scoreline stays well under the 2.5 line.

47%chance107 @ bet365

Sam Surridge to score anytimeSurridge already has 12 goals in 1089 minutes this season, and our model has him among the frontrunners to open the scoring in a 0-1 win.

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐chanceopening soon @ bet365

Our approach: we start from Nashville's outstanding underlying numbers this season and NYCFC's uneven recent form, then let our Signal model's data-led picks do the talking.

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Season Form & Standings

Nashville SC (first in the East, 49 points, +26 goal difference) arrive as the division’s benchmark side, while NYCFC (seventh in the East) sit in the thick of the playoff picture but with work to do to close the gap.

Eastern Conference

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Potential Match-Winners

• Nicolás Fernández Mercau (NYCFC): Fernández Mercau leads NYCFC’s attack with 14 goals and 40 chances created, the clearest source of a home response if City are to find a way through.
• Sam Surridge (Nashville SC): Surridge has 12 goals from just 1089 minutes and is the obvious focal point for Nashville’s attack.
• Hany Mukhtar (Nashville SC): Mukhtar’s 28 chances created and 9 goals underline why Nashville’s attack has been the league’s most productive this season.

Recent Form

NYCFC: W D L L D

• 2026-08-23: New England Revolution 1-1 NYCFC (D, away)
• 2026-08-20: FC Cincinnati 2-1 NYCFC (L, away)
• 2026-08-16: NYCFC 2-3 Philadelphia Union (L, home)
• 2026-08-01: NYCFC 1-1 Toronto FC (D, home)
• 2026-07-26: NYCFC 3-1 Chicago Fire (W, home)

NYCFC’s last five reads W D L L D, a stretch that has cost them ground in the East.

Nashville SC: L D W W W

• 2026-08-23: Nashville SC 3-2 Columbus Crew (W, home)
• 2026-08-20: New York Red Bulls 0-1 Nashville SC (W, away)
• 2026-08-16: Nashville SC 4-1 Inter Miami (W, home)
• 2026-08-02: DC United 2-2 Nashville SC (D, away)
• 2026-07-26: Orlando City 1-0 Nashville SC (L, away)

Nashville’s last five reads L D W W W, form that has carried them to top of the conference.

NYCFC vs Nashville SC Prediction

This looks like a tight, low-scoring night in the Bronx. Nashville SC sit top of the East with 49 points from 21 games and have the look of the league’s most complete side, with Surridge and Mukhtar well capable of forcing the only goal, while NYCFC, seventh in the East, continue searching for the consistency that would strengthen their own playoff push. We’re backing Nashville SC to edge it 0-1.