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    Home » Outright markets » Premier League 2026-27 Top Goalscorer Odds: Golden Boot Predictions

    Premier League 2026-27 Top Goalscorer Odds: Golden Boot Predictions

    Premier League top scorer odds 2026-27
    Squawka Signal · Golden Boot

    Premier League Golden Boot odds & Signal model

    Signal makes Erling Haaland the Premier League Golden Boot favorite at 42%, on 4 goals so far and a projected 22. Every contender below carries our model’s probability of finishing top scorer, next to the live prediction-market price, so you can see where Signal and the money disagree.

    Updated September 18, 2026 · goals to date shown · refreshed daily

    GoalsProjSignalMarketRead
    Erling Haaland
    Manchester City
    Goals4
    Proj22
    Signal42.5%
    Market63.8%Kalshi + Polymarket
    Market cooler
    Kalshi & Polymarket prices
    Kalshi64.0%Trade
    Polymarket63.5%Trade
    Signal projects 22 goals this season.
    Alexander Isak
    Liverpool
    Goals3
    Proj20
    Signal16.2%
    Market12.0%Kalshi + Polymarket
    Value
    Kalshi & Polymarket prices
    Kalshi15.0%Trade
    Polymarket9.0%Trade
    Signal projects 20 goals this season.
    Joao Pedro
    Chelsea
    Goals3
    Proj13
    Signal7.0%
    Market15.8%Kalshi + Polymarket
    Market cooler
    Kalshi & Polymarket prices
    Kalshi17.0%Trade
    Polymarket14.5%Trade
    Signal projects 13 goals this season.
    Cole Palmer
    Chelsea
    Goals2
    Proj15
    Signal5.7%
    Market3.5%Kalshi + Polymarket
    In line
    Kalshi & Polymarket prices
    Kalshi5.0%Trade
    Polymarket1.9%Trade
    Signal projects 15 goals this season.
    Bryan Mbeumo
    Manchester United
    Goals2
    Proj15
    Signal5.2%
    Market0.7%Kalshi + Polymarket
    Value
    Kalshi & Polymarket prices
    Kalshi0.5%Trade
    Polymarket0.8%Trade
    Signal projects 15 goals this season.
    Yoane Wissa
    Newcastle United
    Goals1
    Proj14
    Signal3.6%
    Market1.1%Kalshi + Polymarket
    In line
    Kalshi & Polymarket prices
    Kalshi1.5%Trade
    Polymarket0.7%Trade
    Signal projects 14 goals this season.
    Kai Havertz
    Arsenal
    Goals2
    Proj13
    Signal3.4%
    Market4.0%Kalshi + Polymarket
    In line
    Kalshi & Polymarket prices
    Kalshi3.0%Trade
    Polymarket5.1%Trade
    Signal projects 13 goals this season.
    Bukayo Saka
    Arsenal
    Goals3
    Proj13
    Signal3.0%
    Market—
    Model read
    Kalshi & Polymarket prices
    Kalshinot priced yetTrade
    Polymarketnot priced yetTrade
    Signal projects 13 goals this season.
    Igor Thiago
    Brentford
    Goals0
    Proj11
    Signal2.1%
    Market1.2%Kalshi + Polymarket
    In line
    Kalshi & Polymarket prices
    Kalshi0.5%Trade
    Polymarket2.0%Trade
    Signal projects 11 goals this season.
    Morgan Rogers
    Chelsea
    Goals3
    Proj10
    Signal1.6%
    Market0.6%Kalshi + Polymarket
    In line
    Kalshi & Polymarket prices
    Kalshi0.5%Trade
    Polymarket0.7%Trade
    Signal projects 10 goals this season.
    Bruno Fernandes
    Manchester United
    Goals3
    Proj11
    Signal1.6%
    Market1.6%Kalshi + Polymarket
    In line
    Kalshi & Polymarket prices
    Kalshi2.0%Trade
    Polymarket1.1%Trade
    Signal projects 11 goals this season.
    Liam Delap
    Nottingham Forest
    Goals1
    Proj11
    Signal1.6%
    Market0.1%Polymarket
    In line
    Kalshi & Polymarket prices
    Kalshinot priced yetTrade
    Polymarket0.1%Trade
    Signal projects 11 goals this season.
    Dominic Solanke
    Tottenham Hotspur
    Goals0
    Proj11
    Signal1.6%
    Market0.6%Kalshi + Polymarket
    In line
    Kalshi & Polymarket prices
    Kalshi0.5%Trade
    Polymarket0.7%Trade
    Signal projects 11 goals this season.
    Dominic Calvert-Lewin
    Leeds United
    Goals2
    Proj10
    Signal1.3%
    Market0.5%Kalshi + Polymarket
    In line
    Kalshi & Polymarket prices
    Kalshi0.5%Trade
    Polymarket0.5%Trade
    Signal projects 10 goals this season.
    Viktor Gyokeres
    Arsenal
    Goals0
    Proj10
    Signal1.0%
    Market0.5%Kalshi + Polymarket
    In line
    Kalshi & Polymarket prices
    Kalshi0.5%Trade
    Polymarket0.5%Trade
    Signal projects 10 goals this season.
    Benjamin Sesko
    Manchester United
    Goals0
    Proj10
    Signal1.0%
    Market0.6%Kalshi + Polymarket
    In line
    Kalshi & Polymarket prices
    Kalshi0.5%Trade
    Polymarket0.7%Trade
    Signal projects 10 goals this season.
    Cody Gakpo
    Liverpool
    Goals1
    Proj10
    Signal1.0%
    Market0.3%Kalshi + Polymarket
    In line
    Kalshi & Polymarket prices
    Kalshi0.5%Trade
    Polymarket0.2%Trade
    Signal projects 10 goals this season.
    Antoine Semenyo
    Manchester City
    Goals0
    Proj9
    Signal0.8%
    Market0.4%Kalshi + Polymarket
    In line
    Kalshi & Polymarket prices
    Kalshi0.5%Trade
    Polymarket0.3%Trade
    Signal projects 9 goals this season.
    Trade the Golden Boot on Kalshi Trade on Polymarket

    How to read it

    Signal is our model’s probability that each player finishes the season as Premier League Golden Boot winner — built from goals to date plus a projection of the rest of the season from each player’s scoring rate. Market is what the prediction markets are paying. The Market column is a consensus of the live Kalshi and Polymarket top-scorer prices, de-vigged; the per-player split is in each row’s drawer. Where a name isn’t trading yet, we show Signal only and the market fills in automatically once it prices.

    How Signal projects the Golden Boot

    Signal banks each contender’s goals so far, then projects his remaining goals from a scoring rate that leans on his record and is regressed for a small sample, across his team’s remaining fixtures. It then simulates the race tens of thousands of times to turn those projections into a probability of finishing top. The whole table — goals, projected total and probability — refreshes every day as results land.

    FAQ

    Who is favorite for the Premier League Golden Boot? Erling Haaland tops Squawka Signal’s model at 42%, on 4 goals so far. The full order of contenders, with the market’s view alongside, is in the table above.

    How often do these odds update? Every day. Signal re-banks each player’s goals and re-projects the rest of the season, and the live Kalshi and Polymarket prices refresh alongside.

    More from Squawka Signal

    How Squawka Signal works · Premier League AI Predictor · Premier League on Squawka

    21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Odds approximate at time of writing. Squawka Signal is a model, not betting advice.