The USA meet Belgium in the World Cup round of 16 at CenturyLink Field in Seattle on Monday, July 6, with kickoff at 8:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM CT / 6:00 PM MT / 5:00 PM PT. A quarter-final place is on the line, and extra time and penalties are in play if the sides can’t be separated.
This is about as even as a knockout tie gets. The hosts have been carried a long way by their crowd in this World Cup 2026, but there’s a significant late twist in the hosts’ favour: Folarin Balogun’s one-match ban for his red card in the last round has been deferred, so the USA’s leading scorer is free to start after all. Belgium still turn up with the deeper squad and the confidence of an extra-time win over Senegal behind them.
bet365 make the USA slight favourites at +150, with Belgium at +170 and the draw at +250. That pricing leans on the crowd and the run; our own numbers read the squads instead, and they point the other way.
USA vs Belgium: Best Bets & Predictions
Two attack-minded sides who both give up chances is a recipe for goals, and for a tie the individual quality in the Belgium squad can just edge.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium to Win | +170 @ bet365 (37.0%) | ⭐⭐ | Our model makes Belgium 57% to advance even with the market siding with the hosts. De Bruyne, Lukaku and Trossard sit a level above at plus-money, and while Balogun’s reprieve restores the USA’s focal point, Belgium’s ceiling is higher. |
| Both Teams to Score: Yes | -163 @ bet365 (62.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | The USA have found the net in every game, and Belgium carry the firepower to reply. Neither defence has looked like keeping a clean sheet. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | -125 @ bet365 (55.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | A free-scoring US group stage and Belgium’s 5-1 and 3-2 wins both point at goals. This has the look of an open knockout. |
| Folarin Balogun to score anytime | +137 @ bet365 (42.2%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Three goals already and the shortest-priced scorer on the board now his ban has been deferred — the USA’s focal point restored at a fair price. |
| Correct Score: USA 1-2 Belgium | +1000 @ bet365 (9.1%) | ⭐⭐ | The natural scoreline for a tight, open tie that Belgium’s extra class settles late. |
The plan: take Belgium at plus-money as the value call, pair Both Teams to Score with the Over for the likeliest game state, and add Lukaku anytime at the shortest scorer price.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please play responsibly.
World Cup Form & Route to the Round of 16
The USA came out of the blocks quickly, beating Paraguay 4-1 and Australia 2-0 to book their place before a dead-rubber 3-2 loss to Turkey with qualification already secured and changes made. They found their level again to see off Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-0 in the round of 32 — though Balogun’s red card in that win rules him out here, a real dent to their attack.
Belgium took the long way round, drawing with Egypt and Iran before thrashing New Zealand 5-1, then edging a 3-2 extra-time thriller past Senegal. The World Cup 2026 outright odds can barely split the two, but the closer you look at the squads, the clearer Belgium’s edge becomes.
USA vs Belgium Predicted Lineups
Based on the XI each side started in their last match.
USA
4-3-3Belgium
4-2-3-1Potential Match-Winners
- Kevin De Bruyne (Belgium): A goal off an xG of 1.49 and four shots on target, still the tournament’s most dangerous passer and the man who sets Belgium’s tempo.
- Romelu Lukaku (Belgium): Two goals and an assist off an xG of 1.27, the focal point up front and one of the shortest-priced scorers on the board.
- Leandro Trossard (Belgium): Two goals off a team-high xG of 2.37, drifting in from the left to give Belgium a second dependable finisher.
- Folarin Balogun (USA): Three goals off an xG of 0.88 with 11 shots, four on target — the USA’s leading scorer, available again after his ban was deferred and the hosts’ clear focal point.
- Malik Tillman (USA): A goal and an assist off an xG of 1.01 with three shots on target, a key creator in the US attack.
Recent Form
USA: W W L W
- Jul 1, 2026: USA 2-0 Bosnia-Herzegovina (W)
- Jun 25, 2026: Turkey 3-2 USA (L)
- Jun 19, 2026: USA 2-0 Australia (W)
- Jun 12, 2026: USA 4-1 Paraguay (W)
The USA have been sharp when it counted, with their only defeat arriving in a dead rubber against Turkey after qualification was already wrapped up. With Balogun cleared to play, the USA have their focal point back, and the goals can still come through midfield and the wide areas too.
Belgium: D D W W
- Jul 1, 2026: Belgium 3-2 Senegal (W, after extra time)
- Jun 26, 2026: New Zealand 1-5 Belgium (W)
- Jun 21, 2026: Belgium 0-0 Iran (D)
- Jun 15, 2026: Belgium 1-1 Egypt (D)
Belgium were slow to warm up but have grown into the tournament, and the extra-time win over Senegal showed they can force a way through under pressure. Their front line is the difference in this one.
USA vs Belgium Prediction
Seattle will be loud and, with Balogun cleared to play, the USA have their focal point back — a live underdog now, not a hollow one. But Belgium simply hold more match-winners across the pitch. Our model’s 57% lean toward the visitors matches what the eye sees, even with the market favouring the hosts. We’re going Belgium to win at +170 with bet365, with Both Teams to Score and Lukaku anytime the supporting plays in what should be an open game. For more of our knockout coverage, head to the World Cup 2026 hub and the World Cup 2026 standings. Kickoff is 8:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM PT at CenturyLink Field, Seattle.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please play responsibly.
USA vs Belgium kicks off at 8:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM CT / 6:00 PM MT / 5:00 PM PT on Monday, July 6, 2026 at CenturyLink Field in Seattle, in the World Cup round of 16.
Nobody. Folarin Balogun was sent off in the round of 32, but his one-match ban has been deferred, so the USA’s leading scorer is available to start against Belgium.
bet365 price the USA at +150 to win, the draw at +250, and Belgium at +170. Folarin Balogun is the shortest-priced anytime scorer at +137 now his ban has been deferred.
19+ (18+ in AB/MB/QC) | Please play responsibly | ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON)