Turkey vs Paraguay kicks off on Friday, June 19 at 11:00 PM ET / 10:00 PM CT / 9:00 PM MT / 8:00 PM PT at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, with both Group D sides chasing a result that keeps their World Cup 2026 hopes alive.
Vincenzo Montella’s Turkey opened the tournament with a goalless draw against Australia in Vancouver — a tidy defensive shift but a quiet night for an attack that was supposed to set the tempo. Paraguay had a far rougher start, shipping four to the United States at SoFi Stadium in a result that exposed the structural gap between Daniel Garnero’s side and a tournament co-host playing in front of a home crowd.
Both nations now sit on the back foot in Group D, where USA and Australia have already banked points. A second straight game without a win and the math gets ugly in a hurry, which is why this preview leans into a measured, low-scoring read on a contest neither side can afford to lose first.
Turkey vs Paraguay: Best Bets & Predictions
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result: Turkey | +100 @ bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Paraguay were structurally overmatched in their opener and Turkey hold a clear edge in midfield with Arda Güler and Hakan Çalhanoğlu pulling the strings. La Albirroja can frustrate, but the talent gap should tell over 90 minutes. |
| Correct Score: 1-0 Turkey | +550 @ bet365 | ⭐⭐ | After the SoFi result Paraguay will sit deep and play for damage limitation. Turkey have a clear edge but rarely run away with games against compact opposition — a single-goal margin is the tidiest read. |
| Anytime Goalscorer: Kerem Aktürkoğlu (Turkey) | +220 @ bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | The Crescent-Stars’ leading scorer through World Cup qualifying and Montella’s go-to outlet when chances dry up. Set-piece threat and a relentless runner across the front line. |
| Total Goals: Under 2.5 | -150 @ bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Turkey’s MD1 was a 0-0 and Paraguay will not be inviting the same kind of open game that hurt them at SoFi. Expect a slow burner where one moment of quality settles it. |
| Both Teams to Score: No | -125 @ bet365 | ⭐⭐ | Paraguay rarely score when they prioritize structure, and Garnero’s selection here is likely to favour two banks of four behind a lone striker. A clean sheet at one end is more likely than goals at both. |
Group D — 2026 FIFA World Cup
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 | Australia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Turkey | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Paraguay | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
USA top the group on goal difference, with Australia and Turkey level on a point after their stalemate. Paraguay are bottom and need a result here just to keep the round-of-16 conversation alive heading into MD3.
Potential Match-Winners
- Kerem Aktürkoğlu (Turkey) — Turkey’s qualifying top scorer and the most direct attacking threat in red and white. If the Crescent-Stars are going to break a low block, he is the player most likely to do it.
- Arda Güler (Turkey) — The Real Madrid playmaker holds the keys to the final third. Expect him to drift between the lines and ask questions a Paraguay midfield short on tempo will struggle to answer.
- Miguel Almirón (Paraguay) — La Albirroja’s clearest source of transition speed. If Paraguay get any joy on the break, it will run through their Newcastle and Atlanta-honoured wide man.
- Antonio Sanabria (Paraguay) — The senior striker carries Paraguay’s best chance of nicking a set-piece goal or a half-chance from a counter.
Head-to-Head
There is no senior competitive history between Turkey and Paraguay to lean on — the two have never met at a World Cup, and friendlies between the federations are scarce. Tactical archetypes do most of the talking here: a possession-leaning European side against a deep-block South American side built around physicality and set pieces.
Recent Form
Turkey
Turkey arrive off a goalless MD1 draw with Australia and a qualifying campaign that was more emphatic than the World Cup opener suggested. Montella’s side scored freely on the road to the tournament, with Aktürkoğlu leading the line and Güler increasingly trusted as the creative hub.
- Australia 0–0 Turkey (World Cup 2026 Group D, MD1)
- Strong qualifying form built on midfield control and set-piece threat
- Defensive shape has held up; the question is whether the attack can find a moment
Paraguay
Paraguay’s MD1 was a four-goal defeat to the United States at SoFi Stadium — a chastening result that exposed soft transitions and a midfield that struggled to live with USA’s pressing patterns. Garnero will need a tactical reset, and the early read is that Paraguay will go conservative.
- USA 4–0 Paraguay (World Cup 2026 Group D, MD1)
- Conceded heavily on the counter; midfield press was repeatedly bypassed
- Garnero expected to favour a deeper, more compact shape in San Francisco
Turkey vs Paraguay Prediction
The smart money is on a tight, low-scoring Turkey win. Paraguay are the more wounded side and have every incentive to slow the game down, while Turkey have the talent advantage but not the cutting edge to turn dominance into a comfortable scoreline. 1-0 Turkey at +550 with bet365 is the value play; the safer ticket is Turkey on the moneyline at +100 with Under 2.5 goals as a single.
For more World Cup 2026 coverage, see our tournament hub, the live schedule and standings, plus our outright odds tracker. Reading across Group D? Our USA vs Australia preview covers the early kickoff. Daily picks live at Squawka Soccer Predictions.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please play responsibly.
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