Thursday, June 25 at 7 PM ET / 6 PM CT / 5 PM MT / 4 PM PT, Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City hosts the Group F finale — a match that means everything to one side and very little to the other.
The World Cup 2026 Tunisia vs Netherlands fixture has an odd shape to it. Netherlands are already through, already on four points, and need only to avoid a heavy defeat to lock down top spot in Group F. Tunisia, meanwhile, are going home regardless — nine goals shipped across two matches, one scored, zero points. This is dead rubber territory for one team and a consolation exercise for the other.
bet365 Canada has the Dutch at -800 on the moneyline, Tunisia at +2200, and the draw at +700. Those odds reflect exactly what the group table already shows — Oranje have better players, better recent form, and nothing to worry about except how comfortable they want to be. For Canadian bettors, the live prices from bet365 are the sharpest available on this market.
Tunisia vs Netherlands: Best Bets & Predictions
A heavy favourite against an eliminated side. The value question is not whether Netherlands win — at -800 that is effectively priced as a certainty — but where to build around them. Goals markets, a correct score, and the anytime scorer provide the angles.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands to Win | -800 @ bet365 (88.9%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | The Dutch top Group F on four points with a goal difference of plus-four. Tunisia have lost both group matches by a combined 9-1 and have had no answer at either end. At -800 the odds are short, but the win is the structurally sound pick. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | -225 @ bet365 (69.2%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Netherlands have scored seven goals across two group matches. Tunisia have conceded nine. The Dutch put five past Sweden last time out; Japan scored four against Tunisia in MD2. Three goals in this one looks like the path of least resistance. |
| Correct Score: Tunisia 0-3 Netherlands | +550 @ bet365 (15.4%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | The second-shortest correct score on the board behind only 0-2. A three-goal Dutch win also lands Netherlands to Win, Over 2.5, and BTTS No on the same scoreline — solid parlay alignment at a price worth the exposure. |
| Both Teams to Score: No | -200 @ bet365 (66.7%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Tunisia have scored once in two matches — a consolation in the 5-1 defeat to Sweden. With the Eagles of Carthage already eliminated and Virgil van Dijk anchoring the Dutch defensive line, keeping a clean sheet is the more likely outcome than Tunisia finding a way through. |
| Cody Gakpo to Score Anytime | -110 @ bet365 (52.4%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Cody Gakpo has been the Dutch’s sharpest attacking weapon through qualifying and into the group stage. Operating as the left-sided forward against a Tunisia defence that has shipped nine goals in two appearances, he is the anytime scorer pick by some distance. |
The build: anchor on Netherlands to Win, stack Over 2.5 as a parlay leg, and add Gakpo Anytime for the player-prop value. The 0-3 correct score is the speculative shot — worth a small stake at +550 given the parlay alignment.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please play responsibly. 19+ (18+ in AB/MB/QC) | ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON)
World Cup Form & Standings
Group F has already resolved its two qualification spots before this game kicks off. Netherlands lead on four points, Japan are second on four (superior goal difference tiebreaker pending the Sweden result), Sweden sit third on three, and Tunisia are bottom on zero. The Dutch’s Group F seeding is the only thing still being decided on Thursday night.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 4 |
| Japan | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 4 |
| Sweden | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| Tunisia | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Cody Gakpo (Netherlands): The Dutch’s most dangerous attacking outlet — a left-sided forward with a goal threat that has run through qualifying and into the group stage. Tunisia’s back line has given up nine goals in two outings; Gakpo against that defence is the pick that writes itself.
- Tijjani Reijnders (Netherlands): The AC Milan midfielder brings late runs into the box and a willingness to shoot from distance. With Tunisia likely to sit deep and offer space in behind, the second-phase chances will fall — and Reijnders has the engine to get there.
- Virgil van Dijk (Netherlands): The captain is the main reason the BTTS No price looks persuasive. Dominant in the air, composed on the ball, and the organising spine of Oranje’s defensive structure. A Tunisia clean sheet becomes far less likely with van Dijk marshalling behind a compact mid-block.
- Hannibal Mejbri (Tunisia): Tunisia’s most creative presence and their best chance of having any influence on the scoreline. His set-piece delivery and willingness to run at defenders could create something on a night when his side will have very little of the ball — though the gulf in class makes a Tunisia goal feel unlikely.
Head-to-Head
Tunisia and Netherlands have never met in senior competitive international football. Thursday’s Group F finale is a first meeting between the two nations — there is no head-to-head record to consult.
Recent Form
Tunisia: L L
- Jun 21, 2026: Tunisia 0-4 Japan (L)
- Jun 15, 2026: Sweden 5-1 Tunisia (L)
Two matches, nine goals conceded, one scored — a consolation against Sweden in the 5-1 reverse. The Eagles of Carthage have been cut apart in transition by both Sweden and Japan, the back line consistently unable to deal with runners between the lines. There has been no shortage of effort, but the structural problems have been visible in both defeats and Thursday’s opponents are at least as threatening going forward as the sides who have already beaten them.
Netherlands: D W
- Jun 20, 2026: Netherlands 5-1 Sweden (W)
- Jun 14, 2026: Netherlands 2-2 Japan (D)
A stuttering start against Japan gave way to something considerably more assured against Sweden. The 5-1 victory was the kind of performance that removes any lingering doubts about where this Dutch side sits — Oranje found their rhythm in the second half and kept finding the net. They go into MD3 with momentum, a settled XI, and the sort of confidence that comes from putting five past one of the tournament’s more organised sides.
Tunisia vs Netherlands Prediction
The Dutch should win this at a canter. Tunisia have no defensive solution and no consistent attacking outlet; Netherlands have goals in them from multiple sources and a settled defensive unit. A scoreline in the region of 3-0 reflects what the group table has already told us. Take Netherlands to Win at -800 with bet365 as the base, add Over 2.5 Goals on top, and use Gakpo Anytime as the player-prop value. Kick-off is Thursday at 7 PM ET / 6 PM CT / 5 PM MT / 4 PM PT from Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City. For more World Cup picks and predictions, visit our World Cup 2026 hub. For sportsbook context, our bet365 Canada review covers the full picture.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please play responsibly.
19+ (18+ in AB/MB/QC) | Please play responsibly | ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON)