Norway face England in a World Cup 2026 quarterfinal on Saturday, July 11 (5:00 PM ET / 4:00 PM CT / 3:00 PM MT / 2:00 PM PT), with a place in the semifinals on the line and extra time and penalties waiting if the sides cannot be separated over 90 minutes.
Our Norway vs England prediction begins with the side no one still standing wanted to pull out of the hat. Norway put Brazil out 2-1 in the Round of 16, and Erling Haaland walks into the last eight leading the World Cup 2026 scoring charts. This is the furthest Norway have gone at a World Cup in a generation, and they have scored in every game on the way through.
England arrive unbeaten in five and off the back of a 3-2 win over Mexico, though they come in reshaped at the back. England are missing the suspended Jarell Quansah after his Round-of-16 red card, so a fit-again Reece James looks set to drop into a reshuffled back four. Declan Rice, cleared to feature after an early booking scare, sits in front of them. bet365 still price England as favourites at -106, the draw at +250 and Norway out at +280.
Norway vs England: Best Bets & Predictions
The tie nobody wanted — Haaland can win it alone, but England have the deeper squad and calmer defence in what shapes as an open, high-scoring quarterfinal.
Our approach: anchor the ticket with Kane anytime, lean on the England win and Over 2.5, then take the Norway 1-2 England correct score as the small-stakes value leg.
Odds correct at time of writing and shown in American format for illustration; your local odds and offer are served on click. 19+ (18+ in AB, MB & QC). Please play responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available — ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600.
World Cup Form & Standings
England won their group and have tightened up as the tournament has worn on, keeping each round down to a single leg of jeopardy. Norway’s route, by contrast, has been all thunder and no brakes — a 4-1 group-stage battering by France aside, they have simply outscored whoever stood in front of them. You can track the wider picture on our World Cup 2026 standings page.
Norway came through the group behind France, saw off Cote d’Ivoire in the Round of 32, then produced the shock of the round by beating Brazil 2-1. England topped their group either side of a goalless draw with Ghana, edged past Congo DR in the Round of 32, and came through 3-2 against Mexico in the last 16.
Recent Form
Norway: W W L W W
- July 5: Brazil 1-2 Norway (W)
- June 30: Cote d’Ivoire 1-2 Norway (W)
- June 26: Norway 1-4 France (L)
- June 22: Norway 3-2 Senegal (W)
- June 16: Iraq 1-4 Norway (W)
Norway have won four of five, the lone slip that 4-1 defeat to France, and they have both scored and conceded in every game — box office, but there for the taking. Haaland has carried the scoring while Odegaard pulls the strings behind him.
England: W D W W W
- July 5: Mexico 2-3 England (W)
- July 1: England 2-1 Congo DR (W)
- June 27: Panama 0-2 England (W)
- June 23: England 0-0 Ghana (D)
- June 17: England 4-2 Croatia (W)
England are unbeaten in five and have reeled off three straight since that goalless draw with Ghana. They have scored 11 and conceded five, the tighter defensive record of the two even before you weigh in Norway’s leaks.
Norway vs England Predicted Lineups
Based on the XI each side started in their last match.
Norway
4-3-3England
4-2-3-1- * R. James steps in with the suspended Quansah serving a one-match ban for his Round-of-16 red card.
Potential Match-Winners
- Erling Haaland (Norway): tops the tournament with seven goals from 5.9 xG and has put 12 of his 18 attempts on target — the clearest reason England cannot afford a loose evening at the back.
- Martin Odegaard (Norway): the creative hub, with three assists and a team-high run of chances created. Almost everything good Norway put together flows through their captain.
- Harry Kane (England): six goals and 4.19 xG, three of them headers — a real aerial threat against a Norway side that has conceded in every match.
- Jude Bellingham (England): four goals and a team-high eight chances created, drifting between the lines to knit England’s midfield to Kane.
Norway vs England: the model read
Squawka Signal — win probability, tournament outlook & Golden Boot watch. Updated daily.
Norway England
Single-match win probability (draws split on penalties)
NorwayEnglandErling Haaland 7Harry Kane 6Norway vs England Prediction
Norway are dangerous and Haaland can settle any game on his own, but England carry the deeper squad, the calmer defence and the higher floor. Our Squawka Signal model makes England 65% to come through the tie, a touch stronger than bet365’s price implies, and it is hard to quarrel with either read. The one nagging worry is at the back, where England reshuffle without Quansah against the form striker of the tournament — enough to keep both teams scoring. We will take England to win at -106 with bet365, pair it with Kane anytime, and expect goals at both ends. For the wider bracket, England shorten as genuine contenders on the World Cup 2026 outright odds, and you can weigh up more calls on our soccer predictions page.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please play responsibly.
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