France take on Spain in the World Cup 2026 semi-finals on Tuesday, July 14, kicking off at 3:00 PM ET / 2:00 PM CT / 1:00 PM MT / 12:00 PM PT — a last-four meeting of the two form sides left in the tournament.
There is barely a sheet of paper between them. France have won six on the spin and conceded just once along the way; Spain are unbeaten in six and have also been breached only a single time. Two of the meanest defences in the competition, two of the most dangerous attacks, and a place in the final riding on it.
The market leans to France as marginal favourites, with Spain and the draw a fraction behind — a read that reflects two teams separated by fine margins rather than any real gap in class.
France vs Spain: Best Bets & Predictions
Two form teams and two miserly defences collide in the last four. France shade the market, but Spain are unbeaten in six — this shapes as a razor-thin call. Odds shown at bet365.
Our approach: lead with Kylian Mbappe to score anytime and expect a tight, goals-in-it game — the result itself is a genuine coin toss.
Odds correct at the time of writing and may change. 19+ (18+ in AB/MB/QC). Please play responsibly. ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON).
Route to the Semi-Finals
France have been relentless. After brushing past Iraq (3-0), Norway (4-1) and Sweden (3-0) in the group, they saw off Paraguay 1-0 and controlled a 2-0 quarter-final win over Morocco. Kylian Mbappe has eight goals, the back line has been beaten only once, and Mike Maignan has four clean sheets to show for it.
Spain have kept pace at every turn. A 4-0 opening win over Saudi Arabia set the tone, and Uruguay (1-0), Austria (3-0) and Portugal (1-0) were all dispatched before a 2-1 quarter-final win over Belgium. Unai Simon has conceded once across the whole run, and Spain arrive unbeaten in six with four clean sheets of their own.
Recent Form
France: W W W W W
- Jul 9: France 2-0 Morocco (W)
- Jul 4: Paraguay 0-1 France (W)
- Jun 30: France 3-0 Sweden (W)
- Jun 26: Norway 1-4 France (W)
- Jun 22: France 3-0 Iraq (W)
Six wins in a row, five of them without conceding — a run built on control every bit as much as flair, and one that has yet to be given a real fright.
Spain: W W W W W
- Jul 10: Spain 2-1 Belgium (W)
- Jul 6: Portugal 0-1 Spain (W)
- Jul 2: Spain 3-0 Austria (W)
- Jun 26: Uruguay 0-1 Spain (W)
- Jun 21: Spain 4-0 Saudi Arabia (W)
A flawless record and a defence that has hardly been opened up — the 2-1 win over Belgium the only match all tournament in which Spain have conceded.
France vs Spain Predicted Lineups
Based on the XI each side started in their last match.
France
4-2-3-1Spain
4-2-3-1Potential Match-Winners
- Kylian Mbappe (France): eight goals from 19 shots on target plus a team-high 16 chances created — the single biggest threat on the pitch and France’s point of reference in attack.
- Ousmane Dembele (France): five goals and two assists from the right, a second scoring route for France whenever Mbappe is crowded out.
- Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain): Spain’s four-goal leader from an xG of 3.55 and 10 shots on target — the man they lean on when the game is tight.
- Lamine Yamal (Spain): just one goal so far but an xG of 2.82 off 10 shots on target; overdue, and capable of deciding a night like this on his own.
France vs Spain Prediction
This shapes as the tie of the tournament: two teams who defend for their lives and carry a match-winner at the other end. The margins are so slim that the numbers cannot settle on a leader — the market makes France a fractional favourite, while our own model actually edges Spain, with the single-match call landing close to 50-50 and both sides given roughly a two-in-three shot at reaching the final.
We expect a tight game with a goal in it at each end, decided by a moment of quality — and Mbappe is the likeliest man to supply it. Our lean is Kylian Mbappe to score anytime, with both teams to score the supporting play in a low-margin contest. Kick-off is 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, and you can weigh the wider picture at our World Cup 2026 hub, check the bracket on the standings page, or see where both teams sit in the tournament futures. New to the market? Our bet365 review walks through how it all works.
Odds correct at the time of writing and may change. Please play responsibly.
19+ (18+ in AB/MB/QC) | Please play responsibly | ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON)