Germany walk into the knockout stage as commanding favourites against a Paraguay team that has leaned on grit far more than goals, and this World Cup 2026 round of 32 tie gets under way at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough on Monday, June 29 at 5:30 PM ET / 4:30 PM CT / 3:30 PM MT / 2:30 PM PT. Paraguay must do without the suspended Miguel Almirón.
Two very different journeys collide here. Germany topped Group E while posting the most dangerous attack of anyone in this fixture — 10 goals, 7.74 expected goals, 53 shots and 22 of them on target across three matches — and that is even after a final-round slip against Ecuador with top spot already secured. Paraguay took the scenic route, placing third in Group D and sneaking through as the seventh-best of the third-placed sides.
Paraguay’s numbers paint a side designed to spoil: two goals and 2.33 xG, only five shots on target, and a tournament-high seven yellow cards on top of Almirón’s red against Türkiye. They held their composure to collect the points they needed, yet they have offered next to nothing going forward — and that imbalance is exactly what Germany will try to punish from the opening whistle.
bet365 make Germany the moneyline favourites at -300, with the draw at +400 and Paraguay out at +850. Germany feature prominently on the World Cup 2026 outright odds board, and the market fully expects them to dictate this one from the front foot.
Germany vs Paraguay: Best Bets & Predictions
The card lines up neatly around Germany’s sheer attacking volume set against Paraguay’s blunt edge, and a measured home-favourite win to nil reads as the most logical interpretation of these prices.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany to Win | -300 @ bet365 (75.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Germany racked up 10 group-stage goals; Paraguay scraped together two. That chasm in attacking quality is the cleanest angle on the whole card. |
| Deniz Undav to score anytime | -105 @ bet365 (51.2%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Undav is already two goals into the tournament and sits as the shortest-priced German scorer against a defence that has shipped four. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | -138 @ bet365 (58.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Germany cleared three goals a game on average in the group stage. Their output alone can get over this line even if Paraguay camp deep. |
| Both Teams to Score: No | -134 @ bet365 (57.3%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Paraguay found the net twice in three outings and carved out just one big chance all tournament. Backing them to draw a blank is the percentage call. |
| Correct Score: Germany 3-0 | +800 @ bet365 (11.1%) | ⭐⭐ | Bundles the win, the Over and the clean sheet into one scoreline — the natural look of a comfortable German evening against a toothless attack. |
How we’re playing it: anchor the slip on Germany to win at -300, add Deniz Undav anytime, and use Germany 3-0 as the supporting scoreline that captures a win to nil with goals attached.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please play responsibly.
World Cup Form & Route to the Round of 32
| Team | Group | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | E | 1st | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 6 |
| Paraguay | D | 3rd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
Germany led Group E on goal difference from start to finish, the loss to Ecuador landing only once qualification was wrapped up. Paraguay came third in Group D and slipped through seventh among the best third-placed teams — a path that sums up their tournament neatly: stubborn to break down, rarely persuasive. The World Cup 2026 outright odds frame Germany as a genuine contender, while Paraguay look like outsiders content simply to have reached this stage.
Potential Match-Winners
- Deniz Undav (Germany): Bagged a brace against Ivory Coast and has been Germany’s steadiest finisher, leading the line with a poacher’s sharpness.
- Kai Havertz (Germany): Up and running after his two-goal haul in the 7-1 demolition of Curaçao, he hands Germany a second central threat.
- Jamal Musiala (Germany): The creative pulse of the team, his tight control and movement between the lines are precisely what prises open a crowded Paraguay block.
- Matías Galarza (Paraguay): Scored the winner over Türkiye and represents Paraguay’s best hope of a goal on the break.
- Gabriel Ávalos (Paraguay): Spearheads a lone-striker setup and will be asked to hold the ball up and ease the load on a deep-lying defence.
Recent Form
Germany: W W L
- Ecuador 2-1 Germany (L) — MetLife Stadium
- Germany 2-1 Ivory Coast (W) — BMO Field; Undav with both goals
- Germany 7-1 Curaçao (W) — NRG Stadium; Havertz brace in a seven-goal opener
Two convincing wins either side of a dead-rubber defeat. Germany scored 10 and shared them among seven different players, the signature of an attack carrying threats right across the pitch.
Paraguay: L W D
- Paraguay 0-0 Australia (D) — Levi’s Stadium
- Türkiye 0-1 Paraguay (W) — Levi’s Stadium; Galarza the match-winner
- United States 4-1 Paraguay (L) — SoFi Stadium; Mauricio with the consolation
A chastening opening loss to the co-hosts, then back-to-back clean sheets to edge through. Paraguay’s asset is their organization without the ball; the worry is the two goals and five shots on target they have mustered across the whole tournament.
Germany vs Paraguay Prediction
On attacking quality this is a clear mismatch. Germany have the firepower and the spread of scorers to unpick a low block, and Paraguay — starved of goals throughout and now missing the suspended Almirón — look ill-equipped to hold them at bay for a full 90 minutes. Our pick is Germany to win at -300 with bet365, paired with Deniz Undav anytime and a 3-0 scoreline as the supporting plays. The bet365 review carries the current terms. Kickoff is 5:30 PM ET at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please play responsibly.
Germany vs Paraguay kicks off at 5:30 PM ET / 4:30 PM CT / 3:30 PM MT / 2:30 PM PT on Monday, June 29, 2026 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. It is a World Cup 2026 round of 32 tie.
bet365 make Germany the moneyline favourites at -300, the draw +400 and Paraguay +850. Germany are clear favourites after topping Group E with 10 goals scored.
No. Almirón was sent off in Paraguay’s final group game against Türkiye and serves a suspension, a real blow for a side that already creates few chances.
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