Squawka Signal, our own NFL model, is live for the NFC Championship. It rates every NFC team from five seasons of results and its projected quarterback, then simulates the season tens of thousands of times to work out how often each one reaches Super Bowl LXI. The full board is below, and it moves with results, injuries and quarterback changes.
NFC Championship — Squawka Signal
1
Seattle SeahawksSquawka20.3%
2
San Francisco 49ersSquawka19.8%
3
Detroit LionsSquawka13.8%
4
Minnesota VikingsSquawka12.6%
5
Philadelphia EaglesSquawka11.4%
6
Chicago BearsSquawka7.7%
7
Los Angeles RamsSquawka7.7%
8
New Orleans SaintsSquawka1.4%
9
Atlanta FalconsSquawka1.4%
10
New York GiantsSquawka1.3%
11
Dallas CowboysSquawka1.1%
12
Green Bay PackersSquawka0.7%
13
Carolina PanthersSquawka0.4%
14
Tampa Bay BuccaneersSquawka0.3%
15
Washington CommandersSquawka0.2%
16
Arizona CardinalsSquawka0.0%
Squawka Rating = each team’s strength on a 0–100 scale. Model % = NFC Championship probability across tens of thousands of season simulations, updated as games are played. These are model predictions, not a bookmaker’s price. 19+ (18+ in AB/MB/QC). Please play responsibly. ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON). Read the Signal methodology. Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: bet365.
What the Squawka Signal says
Squawka Signal makes the Seattle Seahawks its NFC Championship favourites at 20.3%, with the San Francisco 49ers the main threat on 19.8% and the Detroit Lions next. These are the model’s numbers — a data-led read from tens of thousands of season simulations — and they move after every week of results.
How the Squawka Signal NFL model works
Squawka Signal is a power-rating model. It starts from an Elo rating built on every NFL game since 2021 — a single number for each team’s strength — then applies a quarterback adjustment, the biggest single lever in projecting NFL results, so a team is rated on who is actually under centre rather than last year’s roster.
From those ratings we simulate the rest of the season tens of thousands of times — every game, the playoff bracket and a neutral-site Super Bowl — and count how often each team lifts the trophy. The numbers refresh as games are played, moving with results, injuries and quarterback changes. Full detail is in our Signal methodology.
NFL NFC Championship odds FAQ
Our Squawka Signal model rates every team from five seasons of results, adjusts for each side’s projected starting quarterback, then simulates the rest of the season tens of thousands of times. The figure is a model probability, not a sportsbook price.
The model refreshes as games are played — through the regular season and into the playoffs — so the numbers move with results, injuries and quarterback changes.
No. These are our Squawka Signal model’s probabilities, not a bookmaker’s price — a data-led read on the race, updated as games are played.
Licensed Canadian sportsbooks — bet365 — price NFL NFC Championship markets. See the links on this page, and please gamble responsibly.
The model’s current order is in the table above — it updates as the season plays out, so the favourite can change with results.