Tottenham go into the final day of the 2025-26 Premier League season needing to avoid a result that would have sounded absurd in August.
Beat Everton at home, or draw, and they stay up. Lose, and they need West Ham to slip up against Leeds at the same kick-off. Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated prediction market, currently prices Spurs at a 15% chance of going down. That is the smallest number on this page that should still keep anyone connected to the club uncomfortable.
It is also, for context, the closest Spurs have come to relegation since the Premier League era began. They have never finished lower than 14th in 33 seasons. This time, they go into matchday 38 in 17th place, two points above the drop zone, with a worse goal difference than every team above them.
How Tottenham ended up in this conversation
For most of the autumn the market did not even price Spurs in the relegation conversation. Kalshi traders weren’t laying down any meaningful position on them until January 20, when they finally appeared in the contract at around 26%. By that point the season had already turned. Run after run of one win in five, then one in seven, then a winless March that emptied the cushion.
The alarm peaked on April 27. Kalshi had Spurs at 56% to go down, briefly the bookies’ favourites for the third relegation place. That was the week Aston Villa beat them at home and Burnley, of all teams, took a point off them on a Tuesday night. By the time the calendar flipped to May, anyone watching the market would have told you Tottenham were going down.
What pulled them back was not a run of form. It was a single win at Crystal Palace and a late equaliser at Brighton, plus two genuinely bad weekends for West Ham. By May 19, after Spurs lost 2-1 at Chelsea, the market had them back at 9.4%. The Chelsea defeat nudged that figure up again. They sit at 15% going into the final 90 minutes of the season.
Prediction market
Implied probability that each team finishes in the bottom three. Toggle teams to compare.
21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2573). Chat available at ncpgambling.org/chat
What Tottenham need to stay up on Sunday
The math is unusually clean. Spurs are on 38 points with a goal difference of -10. West Ham are on 36 points with a goal difference of -22. Burnley and Wolves are both already down. The third relegation place goes to whichever of Spurs and West Ham finishes 18th.
For Tottenham to be relegated, two things both need to happen. Spurs need to lose at home to Everton, who finished their season 12th with nothing left to play for. And West Ham need to beat Leeds, who sit 14th, also with nothing on the table. Any other combination keeps Spurs up. A Tottenham win, a Tottenham draw, or a West Ham failure to win all carry the same outcome: survival.
That is why the market splits 85/15. Three of the nine possible final-score combinations relegate Tottenham. Six keep them up. Kalshi is not predicting that Sunday will go badly; it is pricing the probability that the one specific combination occurs. The fact that both Spurs and West Ham lost their previous match is what stops that figure being closer to 5%.
Both fixtures kick off at 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, 24 May. The Tottenham vs Everton preview covers the team news and odds in detail.
Reading the Kalshi market
Kalshi prices each team’s relegation probability as a yes/no contract that settles at 0 or 100 depending on whether they finish 18th, 19th or 20th. The figures on this page reflect what traders were willing to pay for the “yes” side of Spurs’ contract on the morning of matchday 38. Like any market, the price moves on news, on results elsewhere, and on the volume of money flowing through it. Our Kalshi explainer covers the mechanics in plain English.
The closest comparable read on the sportsbook side is the outright relegation market, which has shifted in step with Kalshi through the spring. Our Premier League relegation odds page tracks where the books and the market sit now.
FAQs
As of May 22, the Kalshi prediction market gives Tottenham a 15% chance of being relegated. They need to lose at home to Everton AND have West Ham beat Leeds for that to happen. Any other combination keeps them up.
A win or a draw against Everton at home guarantees Premier League safety. Even a defeat keeps them up unless West Ham beat Leeds at the same kick-off.
1976-77. They have not finished lower than 14th in the Premier League era. A drop in 2025-26 would be the club’s first relegation in 49 years.
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange, meaning users buy and sell “yes” or “no” positions on real-world outcomes. The price reflects an implied probability, not a payout multiplier. It is legal across all 50 US states.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Prediction market prices accurate at time of writing.