France vs England: Third-Place Play-Off Predictions, Picks, Odds & Lineups

France and England meet in the 2026 World Cup third-place play-off at Miami Stadium on Saturday, July 18 at 5:00 PM ET / 4:00 PM CT / 2:00 PM PT — two beaten semi-finalists playing for the bronze medal a day before Spain and Argentina contest the final.

France were arguably the tournament’s most complete side until Spain shut them out 2-0 in the last four; England edged Norway in extra time before Argentina beat them 2-1. Neither will want to be here, but there is a real prize on the line: Kylian Mbappe is level with Lionel Messi at the top of the Golden Boot race on eight goals, and with Messi playing in Sunday’s final, this is Mbappe’s last chance to add to his total.

France vs England: Best Bets & Predictions

Two beaten semi-finalists meet for the bronze medal. France are the stronger side on paper, but the real subplot is Mbappe chasing the Golden Boot — and play-offs like this rarely stay quiet.

Squawka World Cup record 71% hit rate 99 predictions settled See our Signal model verdict ↓

Where are you following from? Odds & offers below update to match.

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France to win the play-offTop pickFrance were the tournament’s form team until they ran into Spain, scoring 16 goals on the way to the semis. Signal makes them 57% favourites in a one-off against England.

57%win prob.Check bet365

Kylian Mbappe to score anytimeEight goals, level with Messi at the top of the Golden Boot race — and with Messi playing Sunday, this is Mbappe’s last chance to add to his tally. France’s one certain starter and main threat.

56%chanceCheck bet365

Both Teams to Score: YesThird-place play-offs are famously open, and both attacks can score — Mbappe and Dembele for France, Kane and Bellingham for England.

58%chanceCheck bet365

Over 2.5 GoalsThe bronze-medal match has a long history of goals: with the pressure off, sides trade blows rather than sit in.

60%chanceCheck bet365

Correct Score: France 2-1The natural shape of a narrow France win in an open game, tying the result, the Over and both-teams-to-score into one line.

11%chanceCheck bet365

Our approach: France to win, Mbappe anytime for the Golden Boot chase, and lean toward goals in an open bronze-medal match.

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World Cup Form & Route to the Play-Off

France topped their group and rolled through the bracket — 3-1 Senegal, 3-0 Iraq, 4-1 Norway, then 3-0 Sweden, 1-0 Paraguay and 2-0 Morocco — before Spain ended their run with a 2-0 semi-final win. Sixteen goals scored and, until the semi, a defence that had conceded just twice.

England took a bumpier road: a 4-2 win over Croatia, a goalless draw with Ghana and a 2-0 win over Panama in the group, then 2-1 past Congo DR, 3-2 at Mexico and 2-1 after extra time against Norway to reach the last four, where Argentina beat them 2-1. Fourteen goals scored, but eight conceded — a team that has entertained more than it has controlled.

Squawka Signal Data model

France vs England: the model read

Squawka Signal — single-match win probability & the Golden Boot race. Both sides are out of the title race; this is for the bronze medal.

France England

57%

43%

Single-match win probability (draws split on penalties)

Golden Boot watch

Kylian Mbappe 8Harry Kane 6Jude Bellingham 6

World Cup Final Prediction → Golden Boot Signal →

Recent Form

Every match on each side’s run to the semi-finals, home team first.

England’s route was tighter, and needed extra time to get past Norway:

Team News Predicted

France vs England Predicted Lineups

Based on each side's semi-final XI; managers often rotate for the third-place play-off.

France

4-2-3-1

Mike Maignan

Lucas Digne

William Saliba

Dayot Upamecano

Jules Kounde

Adrien Rabiot

Aurelien Tchouameni

Bradley Barcola

Michael Olise

Ousmane Dembele

Kylian Mbappe

England

4-2-3-1

Jordan Pickford

Djed Spence

Marc Guehi

John Stones

Reece James

Declan Rice

Elliot Anderson

Anthony Gordon

Jude Bellingham

Morgan Rogers

Harry Kane

Squawka · Team News

Potential Match-Winners

Kylian Mbappe (France): eight goals and joint-top of the Golden Boot race. With the award on the line and Messi already through to the final, expect Mbappe to play and to chase it.

Ousmane Dembele (France): five goals from the right of France’s front three, the creator-finisher who has been Mbappe’s most reliable support act all tournament.

Harry Kane (England): six goals, England’s captain and penalty-box constant — and, like Mbappe, with a Golden Boot incentive to finish strongly.

Jude Bellingham (England): six goals from midfield, the driver of England’s best moments and the man most likely to decide a loose, open game.

France vs England Prediction

Third-place play-offs are open, high-scoring affairs, and this one has two of the tournament’s sharpest attacks plus a live Golden Boot subplot. Our prediction: France 2-1 England, in a game with goals at both ends. Signal makes France 57% favourites, and with Mbappe motivated to catch Messi, France’s edge in quality should just about tell. Take France to win, Mbappe anytime, and lean to Over 2.5 goals.

Third-Place Play-Off: Date, Venue & How to Watch

The 2026 World Cup third-place play-off is scheduled for 5:00 PM ET / 4:00 PM CT / 3:00 PM MT / 2:00 PM PT on Saturday, July 18, 2026 at Miami Stadium, the day before the final at MetLife Stadium. FIFA uses the name “Miami Stadium” during the tournament for sponsorship reasons; the venue is Hard Rock Stadium, home of the Miami Dolphins. In the US, FOX carries the match in English and Telemundo shows it in Spanish, with streaming through the Fox Sports app and Telemundo’s platforms. The full 2026 World Cup schedule tracks every remaining kick.

France vs England play-off FAQ

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