Norway meet England in a World Cup 2026 quarterfinal on Saturday, July 11 (5:00 PM ET / 4:00 PM CT / 2:00 PM PT), with a semifinal place at stake and the possibility of extra time and penalties if the two sides finish level.
Our Norway vs England prediction starts with the team nobody left in this bracket wanted to draw. Norway knocked Brazil out 2-1 in the Round of 16, and Erling Haaland arrives in the last eight sitting on top of the World Cup 2026 scoring charts. This is the deepest run Norway have made at a World Cup in a generation, and they have scored in every match along the way.
England come in unbeaten in five and fresh off a 3-2 win over Mexico, but they arrive at the back reshuffled. England are without the suspended Jarell Quansah, who was sent off in the Round of 16, so, if fit, Reece James could slot into a rejigged back four. Declan Rice, cleared to play after an early booking scare, anchors the midfield. Kalshi’s market still makes England regulation favorites at 51%, with the draw at 26% and Norway out at 24%.
Norway vs England: Best Bets & Predictions
The tie nobody wanted — Haaland can win it alone, but England have the deeper squad and calmer defense in what shapes as an open, high-scoring quarterfinal.
Our approach: anchor the ticket with Kane anytime, lean on the England win and Over 2.5, then take the Norway 1-2 England correct score as the small-stakes value leg.
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World Cup Form & Standings
England won their group and have edged tighter as the tournament has gone on, keeping the tie down to a single leg of jeopardy each round. Norway’s route has been all thunder and no caution — a 4-1 group-stage hiding by France aside, they have simply outscored everyone in front of them.
Norway came through the group stage behind France, saw off Cote d’Ivoire in the Round of 32, and then produced the shock of the round by beating Brazil 2-1. England topped their group either side of a goalless draw with Ghana, got past Congo DR in the Round of 32, and came through 3-2 against Mexico in the last 16.
The match-level read on Kalshi has England as the favourite. Traders are pricing Norway at 24% to win, the draw at 26%, and England at 52%. Here is how Kalshi’s stage-of-elimination market prices each side’s tournament arc: Kalshi is the prediction-market platform available to US traders in all 50 states. Prices move with money, not a bookmaker’s margin, so the implied probabilities above read as a live market consensus. If Kalshi isn’t your choice, we also rate Polymarket and ProphetX — or compare the full lineup. Probabilities derived from live Kalshi market prices (yes-side, mid/last). Markets move — not financial advice. 21+. T&Cs apply.Win Probability & Tournament Outlook
Team Group exit R32 R16 QF SF Runner-up Winner Norway 1% 1% 1% 63% 28% 11% 10% England 2% 1% 1% 35% 31% 16% 15%
Recent Form
Norway: W W L W W
- July 5: Brazil 1-2 Norway (W)
- June 30: Cote d’Ivoire 1-2 Norway (W)
- June 26: Norway 1-4 France (L)
- June 22: Norway 3-2 Senegal (W)
- June 16: Iraq 1-4 Norway (W)
Norway have won four of five, the lone blemish that 4-1 loss to France, and they have both scored and conceded in every game — box office, but breakable. Haaland has carried the scoring while Odegaard pulls the strings.
England: W D W W W
- July 5: Mexico 2-3 England (W)
- July 1: England 2-1 Congo DR (W)
- June 27: Panama 0-2 England (W)
- June 23: England 0-0 Ghana (D)
- June 17: England 4-2 Croatia (W)
England are unbeaten in five and have won three in a row since the goalless draw with Ghana. They have scored 11 goals and conceded five, the tighter defensive record of the two even before you factor in Norway’s leaks.
Norway vs England Predicted Lineups
Based on the XI each side started in their last match.
Norway
4-3-3England
4-2-3-1- * R. James steps in with the suspended Quansah serving a one-match ban for his Round-of-16 red card.
Potential Match-Winners
- Erling Haaland (Norway): leads the tournament with seven goals from 5.9 xG, and has put 12 of his 18 attempts on target — the single biggest reason England cannot afford a loose evening at the back.
- Martin Odegaard (Norway): the creative hub, with three assists and a team-high stream of chances created; almost everything good Norway build runs through their captain.
- Harry Kane (England): six goals and 4.19 xG, plus three headed goals — a genuine aerial threat against a Norway side that has conceded in every match.
- Jude Bellingham (England): four goals and a team-high eight chances created, drifting between the lines to link England’s midfield with Kane.
Norway
Norway vs England Prediction
Norway are dangerous and Haaland can win any game on his own, but England have the deeper squad, the calmer defense and the higher floor. Our Squawka Signal model makes England 65% to come through the tie, a touch stronger than bet365’s price implies, and it is hard to argue with either read. The nagging worry is at the back, where England reshuffle in the absence of Quansah against the tournament’s form striker — enough to keep both teams scoring. We will take England to win, a 51% call on Kalshi, pair it with Kane anytime, and expect goals at both ends. For the wider bracket, England shorten as genuine contenders on the World Cup 2026 outright odds, and you can compare more picks on our soccer predictions page.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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