New York City FC vs Toronto FC: Predictions, Picks, Odds & Lineups

New York City FC welcome Toronto FC to Yankee Stadium on Friday, July 31 (7:30 PM ET / 6:30 PM CT / 4:30 PM PT), with the hosts chasing a third straight win and Toronto still searching for their first in three months.

Our New York City FC vs Toronto FC prediction starts with the gulf in form. NYCFC arrive fifth in the Eastern Conference and freshly warmed up, having put three past Chicago Fire and won at Columbus inside the past week. Toronto FC sit 12th, winless in 11 and shipping goals in bunches on the road.

bet365 price NYCFC at -163 to win, Toronto out at +400, and the draw at +300. That is a market backing the home side hard, and the recent evidence says it is right to.

New York City FC vs Toronto FC: Best Bets & Predictions

bet365 make NYCFC clear home favorites against a Toronto side that cannot buy a win, so the value is the hosts taking three points on a night that should still bring goals.

Where are you following from? Odds & offers below update to match.

🇺🇸 United StatesTrade on Kalshi 🌎 Outside the USOdds via bet365

NYCFC to WinTop pickNYCFC have won their last two and hold a comfortable playoff spot, while the visitors arrive winless in 11 and eight goals to the bad on the road.

60%win prob.-163 @ bet365

Nicolás Fernández to score anytimeTwelve goals already this season and 1.61 shots on target per 90 — comfortably NYCFC’s sharpest finisher against a defense shipping goals. Priced from bet365.

43%chance+130 @ bet365

Both Teams to Score: YesThe hosts have conceded in each of their last four even while winning, and Toronto have found the net in three of their last five.

53%chance-134 @ bet365

Over 2.5 GoalsNYCFC have scored in six straight and their recent games have been open at both ends; the market leans to goals here.

55%chance-143 @ bet365

Correct Score: NYCFC 2-1The natural shape of an open home win, tying the result, the Over and both teams scoring into one line. Priced from bet365.

12%chance+750 @ bet365

Our approach: anchor on NYCFC to win, add Nicolás Fernández to score anytime, and treat a 2-1 home win as the natural scoreline in a game that should have goals at both ends.

Trade these markets on KalshiNew users: USE CODE SQUAWKA. Prices update live.

Trade on Kalshi →

If Kalshi isn’t your choice, we also rate Polymarket and ProphetX — or compare the full lineup.

Compare All →

Probabilities reflect live Kalshi market prices at time of loading. 21+. Prediction markets are CFTC-regulated event contracts, not sportsbook bets. Please play responsibly. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. New Kalshi users: USE CODE SQUAWKA.

Back these with bet365Odds shown for your region — toggle the odds beside each pick above.

Bet with bet365 →

Odds correct at time of writing and shown in American format for illustration; your local odds and offer are served on click. Eligibility, minimum age (18+/21+) and T&Cs vary by region. Please gamble responsibly.

Season Form & Standings

NYCFC hold fifth in the East on 25 points, comfortably inside the playoff line, while Toronto FC are 12th on 16 and staring at the wrong side of the cut-off. The hosts have the better goal difference by 15, and TFC have won once since early April.

Team News Predicted

Predicted Lineups

Based on the XI each side started in their last match.

New York City FC

4-1-4-1

M. Freese

N. Cavallo

J. Sands

Thiago Martins

T. Gray

J. Shore

M. Jones

A. Perea

N. Fernandez

A. Ojeda

Talles Magno

Toronto FC

3-4-2-1

L. Gavran

J. Gilman

W. Zimmerman

Z. Monlouis

D. Salloi

J. Osorio

R. Laryea

K. Franklin

D. Etienne

T. Corbeanu

E. Aristizabal

Squawka · Team News

Potential Match-Winners

• Nicolás Fernández (NYCFC): the hosts’ focal point and top scorer with 12 goals, landing 1.61 shots on target per 90 from midfield.
• Maximiliano Moralez (NYCFC): the veteran creator has six assists and is pulling the strings at 2.31 key passes per 90.
• Dániel Sallói (Toronto FC): TFC’s most dangerous attacker with four goals and three assists, and their likeliest route back into form.
• Joshua Sargent (Toronto FC): three goals in limited minutes, averaging 1.3 shots on target per 90 as the away side’s sharpest finisher.

Recent Form

New York City FC: W D L W W

• Jul 26: New York City 3-1 Chicago Fire (W, home)
• Jul 23: Columbus Crew 1-2 New York City (W, away)
• May 24: Nashville SC 2-1 New York City (L, away)
• May 17: New York RB 1-1 New York City (D, away)
• May 14: Charlotte 0-1 New York City (W, away)

NYCFC are on a two-match winning run, the last loss a 1-2 defeat at Nashville SC on May 24. They have scored in each of their last six, though the back line has conceded in each of the last four.

Toronto FC: L L D D L

• Jul 26: DC United 2-1 Toronto (L, away)
• Jul 23: New England 0-0 Toronto (D, away)
• Jul 17: Montréal 0-0 Toronto (D, away)
• May 24: Chicago Fire 2-1 Toronto (L, away)
• May 17: Charlotte 3-1 Toronto (L, away)

Toronto FC are winless in 11, the last win a 3-2 result at home to Colorado Rapids on April 4. Back-to-back goalless draws suggest the defense has steadied, but the attack has dried up.

New York City FC vs Toronto FC Prediction

Form points one way here. NYCFC are scoring freely and playing with confidence, and against a Toronto side winless since spring the case for backing NYCFC to win at -163 with bet365 is a strong one. Expect goals, too, given the hosts’ leaky recent defending. Kickoff at Yankee Stadium is 7:30 PM ET / 6:30 PM CT / 4:30 PM PT on Friday, July 31. For more picks across the slate, check the full soccer predictions hub, our bet365 review covers the book behind these odds, and you can track the East on the MLS standings page. For another Friday-night read, see our Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United preview, part of the wider MLS season.

Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.

Must be 21+. GAMBLING PROBLEM? Call 1-800-GAMBLER