Pumas UNAM and Cruz Azul take the Liga MX Clausura 2026 Final into a decisive leg 2 at the Estadio Olímpico Universitario on Sunday, May 24, after a goalless first leg in Mexico City. Kick-off is 9pm ET / 6pm PT. Pumas advance with any drawn aggregate — Cruz Azul must win on the night.
Our Cruz Azul vs Pumas predictions land at the end of a Liguilla that has produced two very different paths to the title match. Pumas advanced past Club América in the Quarterfinals (6-6 on aggregate, through on regular-phase seeding) and edged Pachuca in the Semifinals (1-1 on aggregate, through on seeding again) after Jordán Carrillo’s right-footed free kick rebounded off the post and in for the only goal of the second leg at Estadio Olímpico Universitario. Keylor Navas’s late save from Gael Álvarez kept the tie alive in stoppage time. Cruz Azul are the only side to have won both their Liguilla ties on the scoreboard, beating Atlas 4-2 across the Quarterfinals and Guadalajara 4-3 in the Semifinal — sealed by Agustín Palavecino’s 66th-minute winner at Estadio AKRON. The opening leg of the Final, played at Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes on Thursday May 21, ended 0-0: Cruz Azul outshot Pumas 24-4 across the 90 but couldn’t break through, and Pumas absorbed the pressure to bank the away draw — effectively a half-step toward the trophy given the seeding tiebreaker.
The market has hardened around Pumas after the leg-1 draw. bet365 carry Pumas as outright favorites — 1st in the Tabla General on 36 points and plus-17 goal difference, hosting leg 2 at Olímpico Universitario, and the side that advances on any drawn aggregate. Cruz Azul, the 3rd seed on 33 points and plus-13, now need a straight 90-minute win on the road to take the title. The leg-2 lines — Match Result, Correct Score, Over/Under 2.5, Both Teams to Score — are live.
Best Bets & Predictions
Leg 1 finished goalless. Pumas now need a draw at home to lift the trophy; Cruz Azul need to win on the scoreboard. The leg-2 lines below are our picks heading into Sunday’s decider.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pumas UNAM to win Liga MX Clausura 2026 | Bet now @ bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Pumas advance on any drawn aggregate after the goalless leg 1. Tabla General champions, hosting leg 2 at Olímpico Universitario, and Keylor Navas behind a back four that survived 24 Cruz Azul shots in Mexico City. The format protects them — they only need to avoid defeat. |
| Pumas to win or draw leg 2 (Double Chance) | Bet now @ bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | The leg-2 expression of the outright pick. Pumas advance with any draw, so a Pumas-or-draw 90-minute result wins the trophy — a single price covering both routes home. |
| Cruz Azul to win Liga MX Clausura 2026 | Bet now @ bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Cruz Azul produced 24 shots and two big chances in leg 1 without scoring — the territorial volume is there, the conversion isn’t. La Máquina need a 90-minute win on the road to lift the trophy, but they were the only Liguilla side to win both previous ties on the scoreboard. The value side if you back finishing variance to correct. |
| Gabriel “Toro” Fernandez to score anytime in leg 2 | Bet now @ bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Cruz Azul’s top scorer at 14 goals across the 2025/26 cycle, and the side carrying the only urgency on the night. Cruz Azul must score to win; Toro is the natural anytime read. |
| Guillermo “Memote” Martinez to score anytime in leg 2 | Bet now @ bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Pumas’s leading scorer with 9 goals on the season. The natural striker outlet against a Cruz Azul side that has to push out and chase the game. |
| Jordán Carrillo to score anytime in leg 2 | Bet now @ bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Scored the Semifinal winner from a set piece against Pachuca. Pumas’s most in-form match-winner heading into the trophy leg. |
Our approach to these Pumas vs Cruz Azul predictions: the 0-0 leg 1 has narrowed the picture sharply. Pumas now need only a draw on Sunday to lift the trophy — three structural edges remain, and the format is doing most of the work. Cruz Azul threw 24 shots in leg 1 without scoring, so the eye-test argument for them is intact even if the scoreboard didn’t reward it. Toro Fernandez is the cleanest anytime-scorer read because Cruz Azul are the side that has to chase the game.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability
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Prediction-market depth on Liga MX is thinner than on European competitions, but Polymarket traders typically open Liga MX Final winner markets in the days before kick-off, and Kalshi has run Liga MX contracts intermittently across the Liguilla. We will reflect Polymarket and Kalshi pricing here once the Final markets list, with the seeding edge expected to push Pumas slightly inside Cruz Azul on the implied-probability read — the same shape bet365’s outright board carries.
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Liga MX Clausura 2026 Final — Dates, Venues & How to Watch
The Final is two-legged with aggregate goals deciding the title. The lower seed hosts leg 1; the higher seed hosts the return. Any tie level on aggregate after 180 minutes advances the higher-seeded side — in this case Pumas, the regular-phase points leader. Away goals do not separate.
| Leg | Date | Host | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leg 1 | Thursday, May 21 | Cruz Azul | Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes, Mexico City — finished 0-0 |
| Leg 2 | Sunday, May 24 | Pumas UNAM | Estadio Olímpico Universitario, Mexico City — 9pm ET kick-off |
Leg 2 kicks off Sunday May 24 at 9pm ET / 6pm PT (8pm Mexico City local). In the US, Liga MX coverage runs across TUDN, ViX and FOX Deportes depending on the fixture; the Final broadcast partner is confirmed by Liga MX closer to the whistle.
Cruz Azul’s Road to the Final
The case behind these Cruz Azul vs Pumas predictions for La Máquina is the cleanest knockout run of the bracket. Cruz Azul finished third in the Tabla General on 33 points and plus-13 goal difference, then dispatched both Liguilla opponents on the scoreboard — the only side in the bracket to do so. The Quarterfinal against Atlas was won 4-2 on aggregate: a 3-2 road win in Guadalajara, then a 1-0 home result to lock in the tie. The Semifinal against Guadalajara was tighter — 2-2 at home in leg 1, then a 2-1 road win at Estadio AKRON in leg 2 with Agustín Palavecino’s 66th-minute strike the difference.
Cruz Azul are chasing their tenth league title and their first since the Guard1anes 2021 Clausura — the 2021 celebration was muted by the Covid pandemic, and a 2026 trophy would be the club’s first proper title celebration in over a decade. Gabriel “Toro” Fernandez has carried the goal load with 14 across the 2025/26 cycle; Jose Paradela’s 10 goals supply the secondary attacking edge, and Carlos Rodriguez’s midfield work has anchored the back-to-front balance through the Liguilla. In leg 1 of the Final at Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes, Cruz Azul produced 24 shots and two big chances but failed to score against a deep Pumas block — they head to Olímpico Universitario knowing only a win takes them through.
Pumas UNAM’s Road to the Final
Pumas finished as Tabla General champions on 36 points and plus-17 goal difference. The Liguilla has been less emphatic. The Quarterfinal against Club América ended 6-6 on aggregate across two 3-3 draws — at Estadio Azteca in leg 1 and at Estadio Olímpico Universitario in leg 2 — with Pumas advancing on regular-phase position. The Semifinal against Pachuca followed the same template: a 1-0 leg 1 loss at Estadio Hidalgo, then a 1-0 home win at Olímpico Universitario with Jordán Carrillo’s right-footed free kick rebounding off the post and in for the only goal. Pachuca had two clear stoppage-time chances to take the tie outright; Keylor Navas saved one and Salomón Rondón skied the other.
Pumas are chasing their eighth Liga MX title and their first since the 2011 Clausura — a 15-year drought ending would be the loudest story of the cycle. Guillermo “Memote” Martinez leads the line with 9 goals; Robert Morales and Olavinho add 8 apiece. Coach Efraín Juárez has built a side that has survived two knockout ties without winning a 90-minute scoreline — the price the seeding advantage carries. Leg 1 of the Final followed the same shape — a 0-0 in Mexico City with Cruz Azul taking 24 of the match’s 28 shots and Pumas riding the seeding tiebreaker into a home decider.
Head-to-Head: Cruz Azul vs Pumas UNAM
The H2H this season favors Pumas: one Pumas win and one draw across the 2025/26 cycle, with Pumas outscoring Cruz Azul 5-4 across the two meetings. Importantly, neither result landed at the seeded home. Pumas’s only win came as the away side at Cruz Azul’s home in November 2025, winning 3-2. Cruz Azul’s only positive result came as the away side at Estadio Olímpico Universitario in March, coming back from 0-2 down at half-time to draw 2-2. The editorial point for the Final: each side has shown they can score on the other on the road — including, for Cruz Azul, at the venue that decides leg 2.
| Date | Match | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul | 2-2 | Liga MX Clausura |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Cruz Azul vs Pumas UNAM | 2-3 (Pumas) | Liga MX Apertura |
Potential Match-Winners
Cruz Azul
- Gabriel “Toro” Fernandez (Cruz Azul): 14 goals across the 2025/26 cycle, top scorer in the squad and the consistent finisher across both Liguilla rounds. The natural fixture-led pick for an anytime goalscorer market.
- Agustín Palavecino (Cruz Azul): Scored the 66th-minute Semifinal winner at Estadio AKRON to send Cruz Azul through. The midfield runner Pumas will have to track; the kind of secondary scorer profile that wins knockout finals.
- Jose Paradela (Cruz Azul): 10 goals on the season and the creative-attacking outlet supporting Toro Fernandez. Cruz Azul’s secondary goal-threat insurance against any Pumas defensive shape.
Pumas UNAM
- Jordán Carrillo (Pumas UNAM): 24-year-old attacker. Scored the Semifinal winner from a set piece off the post against Pachuca. Pumas’s most in-form match-winner heading into the Final.
- Guillermo “Memote” Martinez (Pumas UNAM): Pumas’s leading scorer with 9 goals, the natural striker outlet. Cruz Azul have conceded in every Liguilla leg so far — Martinez is the cleanest read on the Pumas goalscorer board.
- Keylor Navas (Pumas UNAM): The match-winner most likely to swing a tight Final without scoring. The Costa Rica veteran and ex-Real Madrid Champions League winner kept Pumas in the Semifinal with a 91st-minute save from Gael Álvarez. In a low-scoring two-legged Final decided by margins, the goalkeeper at the right end is decisive.
Cruz Azul vs Pumas Predictions: Our Verdict
Our Pumas vs Cruz Azul predictions land on Pumas to lift the trophy. The Tabla General champions, the home leg 2, the seeding tiebreaker on any drawn aggregate, and Keylor Navas in goal — Pumas need only avoid defeat at Olímpico Universitario to break the 15-year wait. The 0-0 in leg 1 played squarely into that thesis.
Cruz Azul are the value side. La Máquina threw 24 shots at Pumas in leg 1 without breaking through; the volume was there, the finish wasn’t. If they take that shape into Sunday, the Final tilts open in 90 minutes. Pumas to lift the trophy at bet365 is the headline play; Pumas to win or draw leg 2 the cleanest leg-specific expression of the same thesis; Cruz Azul outright the value side. For the wider context on how this Final maps onto Mexico City’s run-in to the World Cup, see our Liga MX final editorial. More match-by-match picks on our soccer predictions hub.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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