Uruguay World Cup 2026 odds put La Celeste at +8000 to lift the trophy, an implied probability of 1.2%. The market reads them as outsiders, but the squad and the schedule give Uruguay the chance to dictate which kind of outsider story this becomes.
Uruguay have a deep World Cup history relative to the contender band, but recent cycles have not produced the breakthroughs the market would price them above their current odds for.
Group H and the route through the knockouts are mapped on the 2026 World Cup schedule page, with full bracket detail at FIFA’s official 2026 World Cup site.
Win Probability & Tournament Outlook
Traders price them at 89% to qualify from Group H, and 20% to win it.
Kalshi’s stage-of-elimination market prices Uruguay’s tournament arc as:
| Country | Group Exit | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Runner-up | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uruguay | 12% | 48% | 18% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% |
Probabilities derived from live Kalshi market prices (yes-side, mid/last). Markets move — not financial advice. 21+. T&Cs apply.
Uruguay odds to win the World Cup
The glory days of the early World Cups may be over for Uruguay but they’ve become one of the nations that have made qualification to the knockout stages part of their expectations.
They fell short of those expectations in 2022, being dumped out in the group stage after disappointing results against Portugal and South Korea.
Uruguay are priced at around 80/1, meaning they aren’t viewed as one of the favorites. Instead, they are one of the nations in the secondary group within the market, alongside names such as Mexico, USA and Croatia.
Odds of 80/1 offer an implied probability of 1.2% on the Uruguay to win the World Cup in 2026.
Uruguay odds to win Group H
Uruguay sit second-favorite in Group H. Spain are the heavy market choice. Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde complete the group.
The Polymarket market in the widget below shows the live picture across Group H. The realistic Uruguay target is to finish second, qualify through that route or via one of the third-place spots, and a knockout draw they can navigate.
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Uruguay stage of elimination odds
Despite being second favorites to win Group H, Uruguay are still odds on to qualify from the group and make the round of 32.
A top two finish is required to guarantee that outcome but with eight of the 12 teams finishing in third place also qualifying, Uruguay’s chances of qualifying for the knockout stage increases further.
You can get odds of 1/6 for Uruguay to make it through Group H, with odds of 4/1 that they fail to qualify and leave the competition at the earliest stage.
| Stage of Elimination | Latest odds |
|---|---|
| To qualify from Group H | -600 |
| To not qualify from Group H | +400 |
Uruguay World Cup top goalscorer odds
Uruguay might not have the likes of Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani in their ranks anymore but there is plenty of talent in the attacking portion of their squad, with three names standing out in the top scorer market.
Darwin Nunez leads the way at 66/1 off the back of six goals in 12 games for Al-Hilal in Saudi Arabia, adding an edge to their meeting with Uruguay in the group stage. Following him in the betting market is Brian Rodriguez, who hasn’t enjoyed the best of times in Liga MX but can still be found at 150/1 to top the goalscoring ranks in 2026. Facundo Pellistri is the third man in the running for Uruguay with odds of 200/1
You can find full World Cup top goalscorer odds here
| Player | Latest odds |
|---|---|
| +6600 | +6600 |
| +15000 | +15000 |
| +20000 | +20000 |
Uruguay at the 2026 World Cup: FAQs
Uruguay are in Group H alongside Spain, Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde. The draw was made in Las Vegas on 5 December 2025.
Uruguay play three group-stage matches between 11 June and 27 June 2026, with venues confirmed by FIFA across the United States, Mexico and Canada. The round of 32 follows from 28 June to 3 July, the round of 16 from 4 to 7 July, and the quarterfinals from 9 to 11 July.
Marcelo Bielsa took charge in 2023 and brings the high-press, vertical identity that defined his Argentina, Chile, Athletic Club and Leeds sides.
Uruguay’s odds to win the 2026 World Cup are around +2500 at leading US sportsbooks, an implied probability of about 4%. Uruguay sit in the third tier of contenders, with Bielsa lifting the price on tactical reputation alone. For full market context see our World Cup 2026 winner odds page.
Uruguay’s last semifinal was Brazil 2010, with Diego Forlán winning the Golden Ball. Bielsa’s appointment was designed to rebuild that ceiling. Reaching the quarterfinals is a realistic target; a semifinal would be a major step toward fulfilling the two-time winner’s modern potential.