Sweden opened the 2026 World Cup with a 5-1 win over Tunisia at the Estadio BBVA. The three points are a strong start to their group stage campaign, with two matches still to come.
Sweden to win World Cup 2026 odds centre on whether Sweden can turn a favourable tournament path into a genuine run at the trophy. The Sweden profile below tracks the group-stage picture, futures market context and the squad factors that matter most before the knockout rounds, with broader tournament details available via the official FIFA World Cup hub.
Sweden have a deep World Cup history relative to the contender band, but recent cycles have not produced the breakthroughs the market would price them above their current odds for.
Group F and the route through the knockouts are mapped on the 2026 World Cup schedule page, with full bracket detail at FIFA’s official 2026 World Cup site.
Sweden’s World Cup 2026 path
| Round | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| MD1 | 2026-06-15 | Tunisia | W 5-1 |
Win Probability & Tournament Outlook
Traders price them at 64% to qualify from Group F, and 14% to win it.
Kalshi’s stage-of-elimination market prices Sweden’s tournament arc as:
| Country | Group Exit | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Runner-up | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden | 40% | 28% | 14% | 9% | 14% | 5% | 1% |
Probabilities derived from live Kalshi market prices (yes-side, mid/last). Markets move — not financial advice. 21+. T&Cs apply.
Sweden to win World Cup 2026 odds
Given their recent form and their tough group, it is little surprise to see Sweden in the middle of the betting pack.
That is despite possessing a squad full of attacking talent, notably playoff hero Viktor Gyokeres, Lucas Bergvall and Anthony Elanga.
Their odds of going far in the tournament will only get better with the hopeful returns of Alexander Isak and captain Dejan Kulusevski for the tournament.
Sweden odds to win Group F
Group F hands Sweden Netherlands as the top seed, Japan as the second-favorite, and Tunisia as the long-odds outsider. Sweden arrive as third-favorite in a competitive field.
The Polymarket market in the widget below has Netherlands clear, Japan the realistic challenger, and Sweden in the third-favorite band. With three teams from most groups advancing under the expanded format, qualification remains very much in play.
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Sweden stage of elimination odds
Odds for Sweden’s stage of elimination market will appear here when available.
Sweden World Cup top goalscorer odds
With Sweden having only secured their qualification to the tournament in March, much later than their World Cup opponents, their players are yet to be added to the top goalscorer market – but a few players will undoubtedly be involved.
Arsenal’s Viktor Gyokeres and Liverpool’s Alexander Isak have faced disparate issues since their respective big-money moves in the summer of 2025 – but they are elite goalscorers and will undoubtedly be priced up for this market before the tournament begins.
Sweden at the 2026 World Cup: FAQs
Sweden are in Group F alongside Netherlands, Japan and Tunisia. The draw was made in Las Vegas on 5 December 2025.
Sweden play three group-stage matches between 11 June and 27 June 2026, with venues confirmed by FIFA across the United States, Mexico and Canada. The round of 32 follows from 28 June to 3 July, the round of 16 from 4 to 7 July, and the quarterfinals from 9 to 11 July.
Jon Dahl Tomasson is Danish and took charge in 2024 after stints at Roma assistant level and Blackburn as head coach.
Sweden’s odds to win the 2026 World Cup are around +10000 at leading US sportsbooks, an implied probability of about 1%. Sweden sit in the outsider tier, with the Isak-Gyökeres striker pair lifting them above mid-tier European sides. For full market context see our World Cup 2026 winner odds page.
Sweden reached the quarterfinals at Russia 2018, their best modern World Cup. Repeating that in North America is realistic with Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres as the attack. The key will be picking up points against Japan and Tunisia to pursue second in Group F.