Norway are back at a World Cup for the first time since 1998. The squad is built around Erling Haaland, the price reflects a side the market does not yet trust to deliver in a high-stakes tournament, and the question is whether their qualifying form survives the step up.
Landslaget topped a UEFA qualifying campaign that has been the hardest part of their case to take seriously, finishing well clear of the field. Haaland, Martin Odegaard and Alexander Sorloth give them a top end the smaller World Cup nations cannot match.
The expanded 48-team format helps. Three teams from most groups will progress to the knockouts. Group I and the route through to the last 16 are mapped on the 2026 World Cup schedule page.
Win Probability & Tournament Outlook
Kalshi’s market has Norway in the long-shot tier at 2% to lift the trophy.
Traders price them at 87% to qualify from Group I, and 26% to win it.
Kalshi’s stage-of-elimination market prices Norway’s tournament arc as:
| Country | Group Exit | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Runner-up | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | 12% | 34% | 25% | 15% | 8% | 5% | 3% |
Probabilities derived from live Kalshi market prices (yes-side, mid/last). Markets move — not financial advice. 21+. T&Cs apply.
Norway odds to win the World Cup 2026
Norway sit at +2800 to lift the trophy, an implied probability of 3.4%. There is no recent World Cup tournament data to anchor the market on. Norway’s last appearance was 1998, where they reached the Round of 16 before losing to Italy.
1938 also produced a Round of 16 finish, and 1994 ended at the group stage. Three appearances in the modern era, none past the last 16. None of which are guides to the side that arrives in 2026.
What 2026 has that those tournaments did not is Erling Haaland leading the line. The Manchester City striker is the bridge between Norway’s squad and the band of contenders the market has priced ahead of them. Sustainable interest in Norway depends almost entirely on whether he gets the supply.
Norway odds to win Group I
France are the heavy favorite to top Group I. Norway are second favorites in the contender band, with Senegal the credible third path and Iraq the long-odds outsider.
The Polymarket market in the widget below shows the live picture across Group I. The realistic Norway target is to finish second, qualify with one of the third-place spots if needed, and dare the knockout draw to give them a side they can outwork.
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Norway stage-of-elimination odds
The market is firm on Norway making it out of Group I (-800) and a +425 price on a group-stage exit reflects how unlikely that outcome is considered. Deeper-stage pricing will firm up once the knockout path is clearer; for now the read is a comfortable group qualifier without a defined deep-run trajectory.
| Group qualification | Latest odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | -800 |
| No | +425 |
Norway World Cup top-goalscorer odds
There is no getting past it. Norway will live and die on Erling Haaland. The Manchester City striker is +1400 for the Golden Boot, by some distance the shortest of the realistic Norwegian candidates, and a top-five name in the broader market.
All in all, the price tells the story. The market is paying for Haaland to outscore Saka, Vinicius Junior, Kane and Mbappe, and is giving you fair odds to back him doing it. Full market context lives on the World Cup 2026 top-goalscorer odds page.
Norway at the 2026 World Cup: FAQs
Norway are in Group I alongside France, Senegal and Iraq. The draw was made in Las Vegas on 5 December 2025.
Norway play three group-stage matches between 11 June and 27 June 2026, with venues confirmed by FIFA across the United States, Mexico and Canada. The round of 32 follows from 28 June to 3 July, the round of 16 from 4 to 7 July, and the quarterfinals from 9 to 11 July.
Ståle Solbakken finally ended Norway’s tournament drought after multiple failed cycles, building the side around Haaland and Ødegaard.
Norway’s odds to win the 2026 World Cup are around +3000 at leading US sportsbooks, an implied probability of about 3%. Norway sit in the dark-horse tier, with Haaland’s presence lifting the price relative to their thin tournament history. For full market context see our World Cup 2026 winner odds page.
Norway’s return to the World Cup after 28 years pivots almost entirely on Haaland and Ødegaard. If those two click, reaching the round of 16 is a realistic goal. Surprising further would be the best-case scenario for a side returning without modern tournament experience.