Spain vs Belgium: Predictions, Picks, Odds & Lineups

Spain meet Belgium at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles on Friday, July 10 at 3:00 PM ET / 2:00 PM CT / 12:00 PM PT, with a World Cup semi-final place at stake and extra time and penalties waiting if the tie is level after 90 minutes.

Our Spain vs Belgium prediction starts with the most in-control side left in the World Cup 2026. Spain have won four in a row since a flat goalless opener against Cape Verde, brushed aside Austria in the round of 32 and edged Portugal 1-0 in the last 16 — and they have not conceded a single goal in five matches. The World Cup 2026 winner odds have them among the favorites for a reason.

Kalshi’s market agrees with our own read for once: traders make Spain 61% to win in regulation, with the draw at 24% and Belgium at 17%. The Belgium World Cup 2026 odds still reflect a squad with real firepower — Romelu Lukaku, Kevin De Bruyne and Leandro Trossard — but this is a heavyweight attack running into the tournament’s meanest defense.

Spain vs Belgium: Best Bets & Predictions

The tournament’s stingiest defense against its most stacked attack — and both our model and the market land on the same side, Spain to grind it out.

Squawka World Cup record Overall 57% · 80/88 Group Stage 55% Round of 32 69% See our Signal model verdict ↓

Where are you following from? Odds & offers below update to match.

🇺🇸 United StatesTrade on Kalshi 🌎 Outside the USOdds via bet365

Spain to WinTop pickFive clean sheets in a row and the best defense in the tournament; our model and Kalshi both make La Roja clear favorites to reach the semis.

61%win prob.-163 @ bet365

Mikel Oyarzabal to score anytimeFour goals off an xG of 3.36 with nine shots on target — Spain’s leading scorer and the shortest-priced name on the board.

41%chance+105 @ bet365

Both Teams to Score: NoSpain have not conceded in five games, and Belgium were held scoreless by Iran; a clean sheet for La Roja is very much on.

47%chance-106 @ bet365

Under 2.5 GoalsThree of Spain’s five have gone under the line, and a controlled knockout tie against a cautious Belgium points to a tight one.

46%chance+100 @ bet365

Correct Score: Spain 1-0The natural scoreline for a Spain side that wins tight and keeps the back door shut — it ties the result, the Under and no-both-teams-to-score into one line.

13%chance+700 @ bet365

Our approach: anchor on Spain to win, add Oyarzabal anytime as the shortest scorer price, and lean into the low-scoring read with the Under and Spain 1-0 as the natural scoreline.

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World Cup Form & Route to the Quarter-Finals

Spain took the long, unglamorous road to the top of the group and never looked back. A 0-0 draw with Cape Verde on the opening night gave way to a 4-0 rout of Saudi Arabia and a 1-0 win over Uruguay, then a 3-0 dismissal of Austria in the round of 32 and a 1-0 win over Portugal in the last 16. Five games, four wins, and not a single goal conceded.

Belgium have been far more watchable and far more open. They drew 1-1 with Egypt and 0-0 with Iran before finding their range, thrashing New Zealand 5-1, surviving Senegal 3-2 after extra time in the round of 32, and dismantling the hosts, beating the USA 4-1 in the last 16. The Spain World Cup 2026 odds and the Belgium World Cup 2026 odds tell the story: one side wins by keeping clean sheets, the other by outscoring people.

Recent Form

Spain: D W W W W

• Jul 6, 2026: Portugal 0-1 Spain (W)
• Jul 2, 2026: Spain 3-0 Austria (W)
• Jun 26, 2026: Uruguay 0-1 Spain (W)
• Jun 21, 2026: Spain 4-0 Saudi Arabia (W)
• Jun 15, 2026: Spain 0-0 Cape Verde (D)

Spain have won four straight since that opening stalemate, and the clean-sheet run now stands at five — nobody has scored against them all tournament. The goals have dried a touch in the knockouts, with 1-0 and 3-0 wins, but they have not needed more.

Belgium: D D W W W

• Jul 6, 2026: USA 1-4 Belgium (W)
• Jul 1, 2026: Belgium 3-2 Senegal (W, after extra time)
• Jun 26, 2026: New Zealand 1-5 Belgium (W)
• Jun 21, 2026: Belgium 0-0 Iran (D)
• Jun 15, 2026: Belgium 1-1 Egypt (D)

Belgium have scored in every knockout game and put five past New Zealand and four past the USA, but their defense has been breached in each of the last three — a clean sheet has come just once in five. Against this Spain, that is the worry.

Potential Match-Winners

• Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain): Four goals off an xG of 3.36 with nine shots on target, Spain’s leading scorer and the coolest finisher in the squad.
• Lamine Yamal (Spain): A goal off an xG of 2.41 with eight shots on target and 17 attempts in all — the tournament’s most persistent teenage threat from the right.
• Romelu Lukaku (Belgium): Three goals and an assist off an xG of 1.39, the focal point up top and one of the shortest-priced scorers on the board.
• Leandro Trossard (Belgium): Two goals and two assists off a team-high xG of 2.66 with 17 shots, Belgium’s busiest attacker from the left.
• Kevin De Bruyne (Belgium): A goal off an xG of 1.49 and still the passer most likely to unlock a set Spanish block.

Spain vs Belgium Prediction

Belgium carry the bigger names and the busier attack, but Spain have the one thing that travels in knockout football: a defense that has not been beaten in five games. Our Signal model makes it Spain 64% to go through, and Kalshi’s market lands in the same place rather than against it. We’re going Spain to win on Kalshi, with Oyarzabal anytime and the low-scoring read as the supporting plays. For more of our knockout coverage, see the Squawka soccer predictions page and our USA vs Belgium preview from the last round. Kickoff is 3:00 PM ET at SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles.

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