The USA host Belgium in the round of 16 at CenturyLink Field in Seattle on Monday, July 6 at 8:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM CT / 5:00 PM PT, with a quarter-final place at stake and the possibility of extra time and penalties if needed.
Our USA vs Belgium prediction starts with a genuine coin-flip. The hosts have ridden their crowd deep into this World Cup 2026, but they will be without suspended striker Folarin Balogun after his red card in the last round, and Belgium arrive with the more decorated squad and the momentum of a dramatic extra-time win over Senegal.
bet365 make the USA narrow favorites at +150, with Belgium at +170 and the draw at +250. The Belgium World Cup 2026 odds still reflect a side loaded with Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku and Leandro Trossard — which is exactly why our own numbers lean the other way to the market here.
USA vs Belgium: Best Bets & Predictions
Two attacking sides who both leak chances point to goals, and to a game the individual quality of Belgium can just about edge.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium to Win | +170 @ bet365 (37.0%) | ⭐⭐ | Our model makes Belgium 57% to go through despite the market siding with the hosts. De Bruyne, Lukaku and Trossard are a level above at plus-money, and the US are without the suspended Balogun. |
| Both Teams to Score: Yes | -163 @ bet365 (62.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | The US have scored in every game, and Belgium have the firepower to answer. Neither back line has looked like keeping this one clean. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | -125 @ bet365 (55.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | The USA’s free-scoring group stage and Belgium’s 5-1 and 3-2 wins point to goals. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring knockout. |
| Romelu Lukaku to score anytime | +162 @ bet365 (38.2%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Two goals off an xG of 1.27 and the shortest-priced scorer on the board — Belgium’s spearhead against a US defense missing its rhythm. |
| Correct Score: USA 1-2 Belgium | +1000 @ bet365 (9.1%) | ⭐⭐ | The natural scoreline for a tight, open game that Belgium’s extra class shades late. |
Our approach: take Belgium at plus-money as the value call, pair Both Teams to Score with the Over for the likeliest game state, and add Lukaku anytime for the shortest scorer price.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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World Cup Form & Route to the Round of 16
The USA started fast, beating Paraguay 4-1 and Australia 2-0 to book their place, then lost a dead-rubber 3-2 to Turkey with qualification already secured and changes made. They stepped it back up to knock out Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-0 in the round of 32. They will be without Balogun for this one, though, after his red card in that win — a real blow to their attack.
Belgium took the scenic route, drawing with Egypt and Iran before thrashing New Zealand 5-1, then surviving a 3-2 extra-time thriller against Senegal. The USA World Cup 2026 odds and the Belgium World Cup 2026 odds show two sides the market can barely separate — but the deeper you look at the squads, the more Belgium’s edge shows.
USA vs Belgium Predicted Lineups
Based on the XI each side started in their last match.
USA
4-3-3
Belgium
4-2-3-1- * H. Wright — in for the absent Balogun
Potential Match-Winners
- Kevin De Bruyne (Belgium): A goal off an xG of 1.49 and four shots on target, still the tournament’s most dangerous passer and Belgium’s tempo-setter.
- Romelu Lukaku (Belgium): Two goals and an assist off an xG of 1.27, the focal point up top and the shortest-priced scorer in the game.
- Leandro Trossard (Belgium): Two goals off a team-high xG of 2.37, arriving from the left to give Belgium a second reliable finisher.
- Malik Tillman (USA): A goal and an assist off an xG of 1.01 with three shots on target, the US attacker most likely to make something happen in the absence of Balogun.
Recent Form
USA: W W L W
- Jul 1, 2026: USA 2-0 Bosnia-Herzegovina (W)
- Jun 25, 2026: Turkey 3-2 USA (L)
- Jun 19, 2026: USA 2-0 Australia (W)
- Jun 12, 2026: USA 4-1 Paraguay (W)
The US have looked sharp when it counted, with the only defeat coming in a dead rubber against Turkey once qualification was wrapped up. Without Balogun, though, the goals will have to come from midfield and the wide areas.
Belgium: D D W W
- Jul 1, 2026: Belgium 3-2 Senegal (W, after extra time)
- Jun 26, 2026: New Zealand 1-5 Belgium (W)
- Jun 21, 2026: Belgium 0-0 Iran (D)
- Jun 15, 2026: Belgium 1-1 Egypt (D)
Belgium took time to warm up but have looked increasingly dangerous, and the extra-time win over Senegal proved they can find a way through when it matters. Their front line is the difference-maker in this tie.
USA
USA vs Belgium Prediction
Seattle will be loud and the US will fancy this, but without the suspended Balogun the hosts lose their focal point, and Belgium simply have more match-winners. Our model’s 57% lean toward the visitors matches what the eye sees, even with the market siding with the hosts. We’re going Belgium to win at +170 with bet365, with both teams to score and Lukaku anytime the supporting plays in what should be an open game. For more of our knockout coverage, see the Squawka soccer predictions page and our Mexico vs England preview. Kickoff is 8:00 PM ET at CenturyLink Field, Seattle.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
USA vs Belgium kicks off at 8:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM CT / 5:00 PM PT on Monday, July 6, 2026 at CenturyLink Field in Seattle, in the World Cup round of 16.
The USA are without Balogun, who is suspended after a red card in the round of 32, so they must reshape their attack, with Haji Wright the likeliest replacement up front.
bet365 price the USA at +150 to win, the draw at +250, and Belgium at +170. Romelu Lukaku is the shortest-priced anytime scorer at +162.
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