Mexico host England in the round of 16 at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City on Sunday, July 5 at 8:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM CT / 5:00 PM PT, with a quarter-final place at stake and the possibility of extra time and penalties if needed.
Our Mexico vs England prediction starts with two sides who have reached the last 16 in very different styles. Mexico have won all four of their games without conceding a single goal, riding a wave of noise and altitude at the Azteca. England have scored freely but looked less secure at the back, and arrive as the side the market trusts to go deep at this World Cup 2026.
bet365 make England favorites at +150, with Mexico out to +200 and the draw at +210. The England World Cup 2026 odds reflect a squad packed with Premier League quality, though the venue and Mexico’s clean-sheet run give the hosts every reason to believe.
Mexico vs England: Best Bets & Predictions
A disciplined Mexico against England’s greater firepower points to a tight, low-scoring knockout, with the visitors’ edge in quality the most likely thing to settle it.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| England to Win | +150 @ bet365 (40.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Our model gives England a 62% chance of going through, and Harry Kane leads the sharper attack. The market agrees they are the side more likely to reach the last eight. |
| Harry Kane to score anytime | +150 @ bet365 (40.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Five goals off an xG of 3.27 and nine shots on target — the tournament’s form striker, and the shortest-priced scorer in the game. |
| Under 2.5 Goals | -188 @ bet365 (65.3%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Mexico are yet to concede in four matches, and knockout football tightens things further. The percentage call is a cagey night. |
| Both Teams to Score: No | -143 @ bet365 (58.8%) | ⭐⭐ | Four clean sheets tell the story of Mexico’s defense. One end staying quiet is more likely than an open, trading game. |
| Correct Score: Mexico 0-1 England | +600 @ bet365 (14.3%) | ⭐⭐ | The natural shape of a narrow England win over a well-drilled Mexico, and one of the bookmaker’s shortest scorelines. |
Our approach: anchor the slate with England to win, add Kane anytime for a stronger price, and lean on the Under and a 1-0 scoreline as the supporting plays.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Deposit required. Paid in Bonus Bets. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New customers only. T&Cs, time limits, and exclusions apply.
World Cup Form & Route to the Round of 16
Mexico topped their group with a perfect record and a clean sheet in every game, beating South Africa, Korea Republic and the Czech Republic before edging Ecuador 2-0 in the round of 32. It has not been spectacular, but at the Azteca it has been ruthless and secure.
England came through a tougher group, thrashing Croatia 4-2, drawing with Ghana and beating Panama, then seeing off Congo DR 2-1 in the last 32. The Mexico World Cup 2026 odds and the England World Cup 2026 odds both frame England as the side more likely to reach the quarter-finals, if by a finer margin than the market first suggests.
Mexico vs England Predicted Lineups
Based on the XI each side started in their last match.
Mexico
4-3-3
England
4-2-3-1Potential Match-Winners
- Harry Kane (England): Five goals off an xG of 3.27 and nine shots on target, putting him in the Golden Boot conversation and making him England’s obvious focal point.
- Jude Bellingham (England): Two goals off an xG of 1.49 and six shots on target, arriving from midfield to give England a second scoring threat behind Kane.
- Julian Quinones (Mexico): Mexico’s leading scorer with three goals off an xG of 1.44 and five shots on target, the most likely source of a goal for the hosts.
- Roberto Alvarado (Mexico): Three assists already, Mexico’s chief creator and the man tasked with unlocking a well-organized England back line.
Recent Form
Mexico: W W W W
- Jun 30, 2026: Mexico 2-0 Ecuador (W)
- Jun 24, 2026: Czech Republic 0-3 Mexico (W)
- Jun 18, 2026: Mexico 1-0 Korea Republic (W)
- Jun 11, 2026: Meico 2-0 South Africa (W)
Four wins, four clean sheets: Mexico have been the tournament’s meanest defense, and the Azteca crowd has turned every tight game in their favor.
England: W W D W
- Jul 1, 2026: England 2-1 Congo DR (W)
- Jun 27, 2026: Panama 0-2 England (W)
- Jun 23, 2026: England 0-0 Ghana (D)
- Jun 17, 2026: England 4-2 Croatia (W)
England have found goals throughout, but the 2-1 win over Congo DR and the goalless draw with Ghana show a defense that can be got at — the one clear route back into the game for Mexico.
Mexico
Mexico vs England Prediction
Mexico will make this difficult, as they have all tournament, and the Azteca is no place to be chasing a game. But England have the better players and the more reliable route to goals, and our model’s 62% reads about right. We’re going England to win at +150 with bet365, with Harry Kane anytime and a 1-0 scoreline the supporting plays, in a game that could easily need extra time. The bet365 review has current terms, and our USA vs Belgium preview covers another of the round-of-16 ties. Kickoff is 8:00 PM ET at Estadio Azteca, Mexico City.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Mexico vs England kicks off at 8:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM CT / 5:00 PM PT on Sunday, July 5, 2026 at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, in the World Cup round of 16.
As a knockout tie, if the score is level after 90 minutes the game goes to 30 minutes of extra time, and to a penalty shootout if still level.
bet365 price England at +150 to win, the draw at +210, and Mexico at +200. Harry Kane is the shortest-priced anytime scorer at +150.
Must be 21+. GAMBLING PROBLEM? Call 1-800-GAMBLER