Uruguay vs Cape Verde closes out the Sunday Group G MD2 slate at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on Sunday, June 21 at 6:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM CT / 3:00 PM PT, with the two sides meeting at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
Our Uruguay vs Cape Verde prediction tracks two sides that drew their openers without doing much to close the qualification picture. Uruguay drew 1-1 with Saudi Arabia at this very stadium and were the better team in stretches — but the missed chances will sting. Cape Verde drew 0-0 with Spain at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, a defensive triumph that gives the World Cup debutants a real foothold.
Uruguay arrive needing to convert dominance into goals. Marcelo Bielsa knows his forwards have to be sharper than they were on matchday one. Cape Verde will sit deep, frustrate, and look for moments — exactly the gameplan that earned them a point against Spain. If they can repeat the discipline, this stays close.
bet365 prices Uruguay at -209 to win, the draw at +300 and Cape Verde out at +550. The line is short but reflects the squad-quality gap; Cape Verde’s defensive proof of concept against Spain will draw money on the draw side.
Market consensus: Kalshi traders price Uruguay at 65%, the draw at 22%, and Cape Verde at 14%. Full breakdown below.
Uruguay vs Cape Verde: Best Bets & Predictions
Uruguay are the right lean and the scorer market for Darwin Nunez is where the real value sits.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uruguay to Win | -209 @ bet365 (67%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Uruguay were the better side in their 1-1 with Saudi Arabia and would have won had they taken more of the chances Marcelo Bielsa engineered. Cape Verde’s defensive shape will hold them again — until it doesn’t. |
| Darwin Nunez | +125 @ bet365 (44%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Nunez is Uruguay’s central striker and bet365’s clear favourite to score. He had the looks against Saudi Arabia and the finishing didn’t follow — usually a one-game pattern with a player of his profile. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | +110 @ bet365 (47%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Uruguay should commit more numbers forward after the matchday-one draw. Cape Verde’s clean sheet against Spain came from a deep block that won’t last 90 minutes against a Bielsa side adjusting after a goalless opener of their own. |
| Both Teams to Score: Yes | +120 @ bet365 (45%) | ⭐⭐ | Cape Verde will sit deeper but Uruguay’s full-backs commit forward and the Cape Verdeans showed real spark in transition against Spain. A counter-attack goal is a live possibility — the plus price reflects that. |
| Federico Valverde | +250 @ bet365 (29%) | ⭐⭐ | Valverde is the midfielder most likely to break into the box late. If Uruguay struggle to break the line through their forwards, his arrivals from deep create the secondary route in. |
Our approach: Uruguay to win, paired with Darwin Nunez to score and Over 2.5 Goals at plus money for a correlated three-leg play.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Win Probability & Tournament Outlook
Kalshi has Uruguay favoured at 65% to win in 90 minutes, the tie at 22%, and Cape Verde at 14%. Cape Verde’s matchday-one performance has pulled their number marginally up from pre-tournament levels.
Across the wider group, Kalshi prices Uruguay’s group-exit at 16% and Cape Verde’s at 55% — the kind of number that says the debutants are firmly in the conversation but still trail Uruguay’s path through the group.
Beyond the group, here is how Kalshi’s stage-of-elimination market prices each side’s tournament arc:
| Team | Group exit | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Runner-up | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uruguay | 16% | 48% | 18% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 4% |
| Cape Verde Islands | 55% | 40% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
Kalshi is the prediction-market platform available to US traders in all 50 states. Prices move with money, not a bookmaker’s margin, so the implied probabilities above read as a live market consensus.
If Kalshi isn’t your choice, we also rate Polymarket and ProphetX — or compare the full lineup.
Probabilities derived from live Kalshi market prices (yes-side, mid/last). Markets move — not financial advice. 21+. T&Cs apply.
Group G — 2026 FIFA World Cup
All four Group G sides drew their openers, so the table is identical on points and goal difference. Saudi Arabia hold first by alphabetical positional split, with Spain last on the same metric. For the full bracket and group breakdown, see our World Cup 2026 hub.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Uruguay | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Cape Verde Islands | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Spain | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Darwin Nunez (Uruguay): Uruguay’s central striker is bet365’s clear favourite to score. He had the chances against Saudi Arabia and didn’t take them — usually a one-game story for a player of his finishing profile.
- Federico Valverde (Uruguay): Uruguay’s most influential midfielder. His late arrivals into the box give Bielsa a secondary route in when the front line is being stifled.
- Facundo Pellistri (Uruguay): Wide creator who provides the assist threat for Nunez. He carries the kind of pace that gets in behind a low Cape Verde block.
- Jovane Cabral (Cape Verde): Cape Verde’s primary attacking spark. If they find a goal on the counter, the move probably runs through him.
World Cup Form So Far
Uruguay — drew 1-1 with Saudi Arabia (June 15, Hard Rock Stadium). Bielsa’s side carried the play but ran into a disciplined Saudi block that defended its area well and pinched a set-piece goal. Uruguay’s xG was comfortably ahead but the finishing didn’t follow. The kind of opener that usually corrects itself once a forward gets a goal on the board.
Cape Verde — drew 0-0 with Spain (June 15, Mercedes-Benz Stadium). A historic result for the World Cup debutants. Cape Verde sat in a compact mid-to-low block, denied Spain space in central areas and frustrated a side that came in as group favourites. The defensive blueprint is now public — Bielsa will plan around it.
Uruguay vs Cape Verde Prediction
Uruguay carry the squad-depth edge and the manager who has spent his career building sides that wear opponents down. Cape Verde will sit deep and try to repeat the defensive shape that stifled Spain, but Bielsa’s side will commit more numbers forward and have the patience to break the block down. Back Uruguay to win at -209 with bet365, paired with Darwin Nunez to score.
For the wider market, our World Cup 2026 outright odds page tracks the title picture, and you can read our full bet365 review before you bet. Kick-off is 6:00 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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